Month Out....

[Bambistew]

@npaden I'm not a statistician, and don't pretend to be one. I think you can calculate the odds similar to a rafle, which is by taking 1 minus the odds of not winning^ number of chances you applied. So it would be 1-((1-(170/1261))^6) = about 58%. Odds may be higher though, because after each one wins, they can't draw again and their chances are removed from the pile... and I'm not smart enough to figure that next step, and may not even be smart enough to figure out the first step.

 

[npaden]

So sounds like Wlm1313 and I both will be hunting black bears on POW in spring 2022!

 

[npaden]

@npaden I'm not a statistician, and don't pretend to be one. I think you can calculate the odds similar to a rafle, which is by taking 1 minus the odds of not winning^ number of chances you applied. So it would be 1-((1-(170/1261))^6) = about 58%. Odds may be higher though, because after each one wins, they can't draw again and their chances are removed from the pile... and I'm not smart enough to figure that next step, and may not even be smart enough to figure out the first step.

Hmm... Doing the same math on my moose application it shows I have a 39% chance to draw it. That's a little better than I was thinking.

30 applicants and 102 applications. 8 tags awarded. The chance of drawing is just a smidge under 8% based on applications. That's a 92% chance to not draw squared 6 times = 61% chance of not drawing = 39% chance of drawing.

Looking at it strictly based on applicants there were 30 applicants for 8 tags so that is 27%. So the 39% doesn't really seem that out of line considering I put in for 6 chances and the average was only 3.4.

I may be asking questions about a moose unit in a month or so.

 

[ThunderNocked]

Planning to do my first DIY Moose/Black Bear hunt in August in Alaska

Awesome! Where you headed? Coming through Fairbanks at all?

 

[ThunderNocked]

Hmm... Doing the same math on my moose application it shows I have a 39% chance to draw it. That's a little better than I was thinking.

30 applicants and 102 applications. 8 tags awarded. The chance of drawing is just a smidge under 8% based on applications. That's a 92% chance to not draw squared 6 times = 61% chance of not drawing = 39% chance of drawing.

Looking at it strictly based on applicants there were 30 applicants for 8 tags so that is 27%. So the 39% doesn't really seem that out of line considering I put in for 6 chances and the average was only 3.4.

I may be asking questions about a moose unit in a month or so.

thats awesome! Hopefully you get one!

 

[AggieHunter]

Awesome! Where you headed? Coming through Fairbanks at all?

No, going north of Anchorage. Planning to do a short float on a creek near where my uncle lives.

 

[ThunderNocked]

No, going north of Anchorage. Planning to do a short float on a creek near where my uncle lives.

that will be awesome. I'm currently without 'off road' transportation so am contemplating getting something to flat these northern rivers and creeks like a Rubber Raft, Canoe or if I should go with my original idea and get an ATV to get out as far as possible. Good luck, I'm sure it'll be a great trip and story no matter what!

 

[Bombguy83]

I am anxiously awaiting results too! Although I have an archery Caribou hunt set up for October and am still toying with the idea of scouting the rest of the winter and early spring for a location to bait black bear.
On top of all that I have some dirt cheap plane tickets to Denver in April and if things pan out I will be doing 3 days of archery and 3 days of shotgun Turkey hunting backcountry style in western Nebraska.

-Dave

 

[Bombguy83]

that will be awesome. I'm currently without 'off road' transportation so am contemplating getting something to flat these northern rivers and creeks like a Rubber Raft, Canoe or if I should go with my original idea and get an ATV to get out as far as possible. Good luck, I'm sure it'll be a great trip and story no matter what!

The lack of ATV for me has driven my hunt choices to archery only and vehicle restricted areas. It’s one of the things that will make bear baiting a logistical challenge. No shade being thrown at the guys with ATVs but it sucks to hump a few miles back only to have a guy on a quad with a cigarette hanging on his lip come by and tell you he “hasn’t seen squat”

 

[LeaveMeHangin]

Who can afford guided out-of-state hunts? Not me...

 

[ThunderNocked]

The lack of ATV for me has driven my hunt choices to archery only and vehicle restricted areas. It’s one of the things that will make bear baiting a logistical challenge. No shade being thrown at the guys with ATVs but it sucks to hump a few miles back only to have a guy on a quad with a cigarette hanging on his lip come by and tell you he “hasn’t seen squat”

Same, I feel you 100%.
I was really wanting to bear bait this year and trap but no trailer to tow my snow machine and no ATV or Boat really limits you.
And that is frustrating. I’ve been looking into some more of the vehicle/archery restricted areas as well. I want to get out farther but we will see. I have an October hunt planned and will see what the couple draws I put in for provide. I have been blessed with draws over the past several years so we shall see!!!

 

[SaskHunter]

With all the uncertainties of closed borders and COVID, I'll stick to OTC if I plan on going Alaska in 2022. Haul road was in my sights for 2021 but it's off the whiteboard until at least 2022...

 

[ThunderNocked]

Who can afford guided out-of-state hunts? Not me...

I am not sure what you mean? As a Non-Res coming up to Alaska the only things you have to have guides for is Brown Bear and Dall Sheep.

there are Harvest ticket and draw hunts you can purchase for EVERY other animal in Alaska. So I’m not sure the point of your post? I also am not hunting out of state, never have but I sure hope to start building points places for some epic Elk hunts.

 

[ThunderNocked]

With all the uncertainties of closed borders and COVID, I'll stick to OTC if I plan on going Alaska in 2022. Haul road was in my sights for 2021 but it's off the whiteboard until at least 2022...

Haul road is a good one, I have my eyes set up there as well.
I think you are being smart though with OTC tickets or tags until things settle down.
Hope everything is good and maybe you can even still make it!

 

[SaskHunter]

The lack of ATV for me has driven my hunt choices to archery only and vehicle restricted areas. It’s one of the things that will make bear baiting a logistical challenge. No shade being thrown at the guys with ATVs but it sucks to hump a few miles back only to have a guy on a quad with a cigarette hanging on his lip come by and tell you he “hasn’t seen squat”

Same, I feel you 100%.
I was really wanting to bear bait this year and trap but no trailer to tow my snow machine and no ATV or Boat really limits you.
And that is frustrating. I’ve been looking into some more of the vehicle/archery restricted areas as well. I want to get out farther but we will see. I have an October hunt planned and will see what the couple draws I put in for provide. I have been blessed with draws over the past several years so we shall see!!!

A great bait option for those who have to pack their bait on their backs is popcorn. Super light and you can fill a large heavy garbage bags that won't rip on small branches and pack a whole barrel's worth of bait in one trip. You can bring jugs of frying oil or any bear attracting mixture as well on the same trip. Bears can move a lot in one day and you don't necessarily have to go 5 miles in the bush.

 

[338win]

Come on delta bison and moose.

 

[ThunderNocked]

A great bait option for those who have to pack their bait on their backs is popcorn. Super light and you can fill a large heavy garbage bags that won't rip on small branches and pack a whole barrel's worth of bait in one trip. You can bring jugs of frying oil or any bear attracting mixture as well on the same trip. Bears can move a lot in one day and you don't necessarily have to go 5 miles in the bush.

It’s a great idea, biggest problem where I am at is that there are A TON of bait stations within 5-10 miles. It’s pretty ridiculous.... that’s part of why I wanted the boat.

but I’m going to look again and try to talk to some guys I know. Thanks though, I only know about Popcorn because of a guy here. We talked and I told him about getting the movie theatre popcorn they throw away!

 

[ThunderNocked]

Come on delta bison and moose.

I didn’t do bison this year.

 

[Bombguy83]

It’s a great idea, biggest problem where I am at is that there are A TON of bait stations within 5-10 miles. It’s pretty ridiculous.... that’s part of why I wanted the boat.

but I’m going to look again and try to talk to some guys I know. Thanks though, I only know about Popcorn because of a guy here. We talked and I told him about getting the movie theatre popcorn they throw away!

Some states that allow bait you can look up a map of stations to avoid burning someone’s spot. You can end up with harassment issues that way though. Would help eliminate areas when escouting. I’m looking at 16 for now.

 

[SaskHunter]

It’s a great idea, biggest problem where I am at is that there are A TON of bait stations within 5-10 miles. It’s pretty ridiculous.... that’s part of why I wanted the boat.

but I’m going to look again and try to talk to some guys I know. Thanks though, I only know about Popcorn because of a guy here. We talked and I told him about getting the movie theatre popcorn they throw away!

I hunt where there are tons of bait sites including outfitters so I know the feeling. That being said, I still managed to get a 21-7/16 B&C last spring, there is always hope! haha