Montana's Impossible Housing Situation

[SAJ-99]

source?

Only number I can't verify is the number owned by NR. There is no easy way to get this number. I might have given it a bad title as "vacation" home, and it should be homes with billing address out of state. It does seem high but I wouldn't be surprised if it was over 20%, but I agree is hard to verify that. There was a memo sent to GG that had tables (which I can't find now) that broke it out by value and not necessarily property tax bill when there was a kurfuffle about tax bills. I will edit to be 1 in 12, which seems low.

https://constructioncoverage.com/research/where-residents-have-paid-off-homes

Montana Percentage of House without a Mortgage where Monthly Holding Costs $200-$300 Census Tract Rank

Montana Percentage of House without a Mortgage where Monthly Holding Costs $200-$300 Census Tract Rank

www.usa.com

Most sales data comes from NAR. Nationwide, about a third are all-cash. Montana on that same track of late.

2024 Cash Buyers

Bozeman’s real estate market has seen some fascinating shifts over the past few years, particularly in the realm of cash transactions. Despite widespread predictions of a significant drop in mortgage rates in 2024, this has yet to materialize. Meanwhile, cash transactions have remained robust

bozemanmagazine.com

 

[Bambistew]

source?

no idea what this means... if a household is primary (i.e. inhabited home) or if they also count short term rentals. Maybe there are 40k vacant homes/cabins/condos/apartments, or maybe those are the second homes?

Explore Census Data

data.census.gov

MT sure seems like its going to be an interesting place to live in the future. Such a huge difference between affordability and income.

 

[cgasner1]

just you gotta have the same mind set as the rut hunt. I got mine

 

[Forkyfinder]

just you gotta have the same mind set as the rut hunt. I got mine

Lol forkyfinder, cottagefinder, all the same i guess

 

[cgasner1]

Lol forkyfinder, cottagefinder, all the same i guess

I could probably lob a arrow from my house to yours if the wind was right

 

[Rie Bread]

Yeah yeah I just saying certain home markets must be distorting that figure. Throw Bozeman, big sky, whitefish, flathead area, ennis out of there and think would get a better picture

 

[SAJ-99]

That's why they use the median cost and not the average

I'm not sure it makes the data any better. It cuts off the tails, but I don't think the distribution is "normal", or even close (I suspect it looks like one of those double humped camels, LOL). When mortgage rates go from 3% to 7% and affordability tanks, a lot more of the purchases are going to be done by those in the higher income tax brackets who don't need mortgages. I guess it doesn't matter much to this discussion because the state jacks up the value of everyone's property, and it clearly locks people in their home. The housing market is a mess, but it is a mess everywhere. Collecting good data just gets harder.

Something to frame the problem, look at median incomes, Montana median income is about the same as Indiana. Obviously not as many people buying vacation/retirement ranches in Indiana.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/14/median-annual-income-in-every-us-state.html

 

[cgasner1]

Yeah yeah I just saying certain home markets must be distorting that figure. Throw Bozeman, big sky, whitefish, flathead area, ennis out of there and think would get a better picture

Well I bought my first house at 150k sold it 8 years later for 220. Now 4 years later it’s sitting on Zillow for 350. It was a 860’ on top and bottom on the south side of Billings

 

[Forkyfinder]

I could probably lob a arrow from my house to yours if the wind was right

Think its always in the wrong direction for that but im shooting uphill so i wont make it either.

The real question is how to get those 200" deer between us onto the state or county land

 

[FairWeather]

It’s not just MT. We need more housing stock. And people to accept that they won’t get a single family home w/ a yard. Build up, and we can house more while keeping our natural spaces.

 

[ismith]

just you gotta have the same mind set as the rut hunt. I got mine

More like, “I got mine and now I’m stuck with it”.

 

[cgasner1]

Think its always in the wrong direction for that but im shooting uphill so i wont make it either.

The real question is how to get those 200" deer between us onto the state or county land

Man could I tell you a story about those

 

[cgasner1]

More like, “I got mine and now I’m stuck with it”.

Yes but that’s due to family reasons and locations I’ve debated on moving. Marry the house date the mortgage rate. We didn’t go crazy when we built

 

[cgasner1]

You guys think housing is insane should look at day care next. Until last month I was paying more for day care than my mortgage

 

[Gerald Martin]

It’s not just MT. We need more housing stock. And people to accept that they won’t get a single family home w/ a yard. Build up, and we can house more while keeping our natural spaces.

It’s simple really. We need to grow more land in those areas close to markets with higher wages. Building materials are pretty stable right now but when you’re starting with lot prices @ $200K for bare ground that is going to eliminate a lot of folks buying ground.

If I can just figure out how to grow dirt and team up with @Flatbrimmer to build million dollar houses for 200K on top of my 75K farmed dirt I could afford one of those 50 million dollar ranches for my own private hunting ground.

“Get you some land, son. They’re not making any more of it.”

 

[SAJ-99]

“Get you some land, son. They’re not making any more of it.”

For those that think housing prices are insane, S&P 500 is average a 15%+ annual return over the last 5 yrs.

 

[Tradewind]

10pages, locked, 4 posters banned (over/under)

under on both

 

[FREAK]

I can't make sense how people are doing it in Bozeman. Primarily the young families that have moved here in the last 5 years. Two parents working, making maybe 120-200K between the two of them (on the higher end). If they bought in the last 3 years, it's a minimum mortgage of 3,500 but more likely 4-5K after taxes and insurance. On top of that if they have kids in daycare, that's another 1800/month per a kid.

After health insurance/car insurance/food and big sky family ski passes they can't be putting a dollar in savings. Either people are making a lot more than I think they are or there's a lot of trust funders or people that have no retirement plan. Probably some combo of the three.

If I hadn't bought when I did (2015), I'd probably be at one of the sprawling towns outside of metropolitan areas like Boise, Denver, or SL where there's more industry/higher paying jobs/and a more diverse selection of housing options.

Bozeman is great though. Unfortunately, I don't see it in the cards for my kids unless I can manage to secure some serious wealth or get flatbrimmer to hook me up with a couple value homes. My wife is a Pharmacist, I'm an engineer. We've made reasonable money most of our careers but probably could make double in a lot of places in the country.

Still out of principle there's no way I could convince myself to buy a starter home for 825K with 6-7% interest rate and be broke for the next 30 years. That's the reality of the valley now. A good buddy just moved out for this exact reason.

 

[RandanP]

While @Flatbrimmer builds @FREAK a house - we could discuss... why?

To me - the problem is clearly too many dollars chasing too few things. Blatant inflation fueled by legislative action.

I think the fed is dropping the rate. That should help!

 

[RandanP]

Yeah yeah I just saying certain home markets must be distorting that figure. Throw Bozeman, big sky, whitefish, flathead area, ennis out of there and think would get a better picture

Prices is the netherlands have grossly inflated. Even g-funk has doubled.