Montana D & E this week??

[brocksw]

What he’s saying is even with points you can’t predict the draw odds cause you just don’t know. So yes one year x amount of points could go 4/4 and the next 1/257 with the same x amount of points. It just depends on if different points come into the draw and apply for units they didn’t the year before.

I know what he's saying but he's still incorrect. Look at the draw odds. There are no examples at all of large unpredictable swings in draw odds...much less for reasons he stated. There are small fluctuations....single digit percentage basis. Some of that us because of the bonus point system and some is for the reasons he's stating...but both combined make up a fraction of the total pie.

This is why even in a bonus point system draw odds are still very predictable. Especially in a large pool of applicants measured in the thousands.

Bonus points offer the possibility of that random anomaly but no one expects it. We look at permit draw odds and see statistical trends that match the multipliers the bonus point system offer.

 

[golfer]

I know what he's saying but he's still incorrect. Look at the draw odds. There are no examples at all of large unpredictable swings in draw odds...much less for reasons he stated. There are small fluctuations....single digit percentage basis. Some of that us because of the bonus point system and some is for the reasons he's stating...but both combined make up a fraction of the total pie.

This is why even in a bonus point system draw odds are still very predictable.

Bonus points offer the possibility of that random anomaly but no one expects it. We look at permit draw odds and see statistical trends that match the multipliers the bonus point system offer.

Right it’s unpredictable, but you really can’t predict what it will do depends on what other hunters prefer and want to experience.

 

[BirdManMike]

I logged in to check and only then remembered I didnt put in for LE tags, only a (typically guaranteed) deer B.

Had to select a lame beaver, too.

 

[ErictheRed]

Agree 100% and I am fine with that if it helps the animals (actual 4 legged ones ) but it's sad bc cutting the NR tags even by 25% isn't going to do much until the R get on board too. Being a landowner in WI it would be a pretty tough pull for me to swallow if WI did so I can 100% understand not wanting this. With that said they better not be bitching about to many people either.

The trick to solve the problem is the Residents need to pick up the non-resident tab. So they get to hunt 100%. But their tag prices need to rise to $400 - $600 to offset the NR they don't want in their state.

 

[timmy]

The trick to solve the problem is the Residents need to pick up the non-resident tab. So they get to hunt 100%. But their tag prices need to rise to $400 - $600 to offset the NR they don't want in their state.

Perfect!! This is a great idea, I’m in.

 

[brocksw]

Right it’s unpredictable, but you really can’t predict what it will do depends on what other hunters prefer and want to experience.

No. Is there a small amount of unpredictability, sure. But again...not enough to overturn the statistical trends.

The special permit I apply for....the statistical odds of drawing have remained fairly similar for almost a decade. A certain number of points year after year, virtually guarantees you the tag. If I walked into the draw every year with 5 points I'd draw that tag almost 100% of the time, if not 100%.

Throw in the general draw tag system to throw that off likes he's saying and someone just replaces me. That's what happens with this system. There's enough applicants and tags that the trends are predictable. Not guaranteed like a pref points system...I concede that. But I can guarantee you there are no large sample sizes that either of you can provide me using MTs statistics that do what he's saying. Instead it's like the examples he's already provided. A couple tags here, a couple tags there. But nothing that changes the betting odds of drawing that tag.

 

[thusby]

Looks like I'm hunting the deer combo this year. Looking for a 2 point with a lot of mass this go around.

 

[BuzzH]

The trick to solve the problem is the Residents need to pick up the non-resident tab. So they get to hunt 100%. But their tag prices need to rise to $400 - $600 to offset the NR they don't want in their state.

Don't over-play your hand...I doubt like hell R tag prices would need to increase even close to that much to cover the loss of say...50% of the NR elk/deer combo's.

Crunch some numbers FIRST...then post "FACTS" second. IIRC, the last I checked Montana sold about 150K R elk tags. Raising them $10 would generate 1.5 million for example.

 

[Elkoholic]

NR Big game combo general awarded, as expected with 2 pref points. Thank you Montana, and see you in September!

 

[8andcounting]

Respectfully, your wrong . In breaks unit I apply in 2019 6 bonus point holders were 1/6 drawing . 2020 they were 4/4. 3 points one year might be 0/7 next year 6/7 . It’s random . I know how bonus points work yes your odds are higher with more points but it’s different every year . My best friend drew a hell of a tag today with 3 bonus points

I take

1/6, 4/4..... so you're talking 10 applicants over 2 years out of how many tags? Thousands? Thousands of applicants. Like I said, statistically insignificant and literally has no effect on the predictability of drawing. Your buddy that drew a "hell of a tag with 3 bonus points" is a statistical anomoly. They happen, but NO ONE....and I mean NO ONE plans their draws that way. Why? Because it is just that...an anomoly.

Ok you apply for you I’ll apply for me

 

[ErictheRed]

Don't over-play your hand...I doubt like hell R tag prices would need to increase even close to that much to cover the loss of say...50% of the NR elk/deer combo's.

Crunch some numbers FIRST...then post "FACTS" second. IIRC, the last I checked Montana sold about 150K R elk tags. Raising them $10 would generate 1.5 million for example.

Old Buzz...go take a nap. The principle is what's important. If you haven't done the math to get the FACTS, why are you busting on my narrative. Don't forget to set an alarm....

 

[BenInMT]

Looks like it will be me VS the 10 elk in the OTC district I like hunt once again

Congrats to the lucky and vigilant!

 

[skyfire]

I'm surprised and disappointed to see my son's FWP account showing an unsuccessful 2021 Youth NR Big Game Combo.

 

[marshman]

Never missed getting selected for MT before.
How long does refunding take?

 

[BuzzH]

Old Buzz...go take a nap. The principle is what's important. If you haven't done the math to get the FACTS, why are you busting on my narrative. Don't forget to set an alarm....

Because its not close to reality...I'll do some math. Dropping 5k NR deer/elk combo's would result in a loss of: $5,160,000

Like I said, raising JUST elk tags by $10 for Residents would generate $1.5 million

Raise R elk tags by $35 and you generate $5,250,000...room to spare to cover the loss of 5k NR combo's.

So how do you come up with R's having to come up with "$400-$600" to cover the loss.

Like I said, you're over-playing your hand and pulling numbers out of somewhere.

Isn't hard to do grade school math.

 

[Hunt&FishCO]

Successful Big Game D/E combo - so excited!!

 

[brocksw]

Because its not close to reality...I'll do some math. Dropping 5k NR deer/elk combo's would result in a loss of: $5,160,000

Like I said, raising JUST elk tags by $10 for Residents would generate $1.5 million

Raise R elk tags by $35 and you generate $5,250,000...room to spare to cover the loss of 5k NR combo's.

So how do you come up with R's having to come up with "$400-$600" to cover the loss.

Like I said, you're over-playing your hand and pulling numbers out of somewhere.

Isn't hard to do grade school math.

The money part is easy. I think it's tag availability. If Montana sees a 10% increase in resident applicants every year it's a matter of time before residents go to a draw and residents start having to go without tags....no matter the cost.

 

[hearteater]

I apply in many states and without a doubt Montana's deer and elk draw is the WORST... Someone in Montana needs to call WYGF and ask for their help on how to properly structure a draw. Have ONE type of point and have it be burned when you draw either general or limited. FWP is no where near sophisticated enough to pull off this 2 stage draw they've concocted.

 

[BuzzH]

The money part is easy. I think it's tag availability. If Montana sees a 10% increase in resident applicants every year it's a matter of time before residents go to a draw and residents start having to go without tags....no matter the cost.

Like I said, and its a fact, before Residents have to draw for general elk and deer tags, NR's combo tags will be cut first.

Just like it should be.

 

[brocksw]

Like I said, and its a fact, before Residents have to draw for general elk and deer tags, NR's combo tags will be cut first.

Just like it should be.

I could be wrong, but I feel like in my lifetime every state in the west will be 90/10 or less and all residents will have to draw an elk tag and it won't be every year. Like I said, I could be wrong. I hope I'm wrong. But I plan on living a long life.