Montana D & E this week??

[Luke_with_a_lab]

Holy Shit!!!!!! My 14 points are gone,

Successful on 380-20 Elk

 

[8andcounting]

So if you buy the preference point at time of draw and are not selected for the elk combo but get a (released) elk combo then you lose the preference point? If that is the case how do I ever get to actually enter the limited entry draw? My account shows successsful elk combo (released) but also shows no preference points. Last year I did not buy the preference point but also got a (released elk combo). Just trying to figure things out for future years apps. Not worth the extra $50 if I never make it to the limited entry draw...

It’s frustrating. Buy bonus points for the LE so when u do get entered you’ll have better chance . I have more than enough LE bonus points to have had a decent shot at drawing , but I also got denied a NR general tag with 1 point so I wasn’t even entered in permit draw - but thank goodness I did Not get a released tag . So atleast next year I should be 100% draw on the general and have a good chance at my permit .

 

[8andcounting]

Holy Shit!!!!!! My 14 points are gone,

Successful on 380-20 Elk

Congratulations!!!!

 

[marshman]

No luck for me.
Depression is setting in.

 

[Luke_with_a_lab]

Forgive me but im in a bit of shock

 

[PablitoPescador]

Forgive me but im in a bit of shock

Big congrats! Would love to see a report of your hunt when it's all said and done!

 

[MTelkHuntress]

I see a lot of walking in my future this summer.

 

[Huntalittle]

It’s frustrating. Buy bonus points for the LE so when u do get entered you’ll have better chance . I have more than enough LE bonus points to have had a decent shot at drawing , but I also got denied a NR general tag with 1 point so I wasn’t even entered in permit draw - but thank goodness I did Not get a released tag . So atleast next year I should be 100% draw on the general and have a good chance at my permit .

Yeah, I guess that part disturbs me some that they take my point on a released tag. I am happy I get to hunt, and always buy the bonus points but what good are they if I never get to that stage. I guess I have to skip a year in Montana, then I will have a shot at using them. Just seems like how the released tags go are not real clear in the info, or I don't understand! So did my $50 help me get the released tag or was I just lucky and donated to MT FWP? I guess its all part of the game...

 

[Luke_with_a_lab]

Big congrats! Would love to see a report of your hunt when it's all said and done!

Yeah of course I'll post updates of how it goes.

 

[BuzzH]

This is exactly my thoughts don't want to derail this thread though. But, seems like a resident draw is needed? I know it wouldn't be popular by a lot of people but the NR have been capped for 15years. It would be cool to be able to go to the grocery store and buy a $20 elk tag and be guaranteed it every year.

On the same token I feel very great full for the state of Montana and being lucky enough to have hunted it 8 out of 8 years.

Good luck everyone this fall!

NR's will see reduced quota's long before a resident draw...fact.

 

[8andcounting]

Yeah, I guess that part disturbs me some that they take my point on a released tag. I am happy I get to hunt, and always buy the bonus points but what good are they if I never get to that stage. I guess I have to skip a year in Montana, then I will have a shot at using them. Just seems like how the released tags go are not real clear in the info, or I don't understand! So did my $50 help me get the released tag or was I just lucky and donated to MT FWP? I guess its all part of the game...

Yeh your pref point helped u get the released tag . My friend that drew a breaks permit had no where near the points we thought it would take , but who knows how many guys even got entered , probably many that got denied the general and didn’t make it into the permit draw . Good for my buddy I guess !

 

[brocksw]

I get that . But it’s totally possible for 6 permit points to be 10% one year and 90 the next and 50 the next

No. I say this politely and respectfully, but you're off your rocker. Are there small fluctuations in draw percentages due to the NR tags becoming more of a crap shoot? Sure, you get no argument from me there. But in general, the statistical trends are not shaken by that, certainly not from 90% to 10%. Not with this many tags and applicants. What you are describing sort of happens in Nevada where there's like 5 tags for the whole unit and there is no statistical trend to draw success. In that instance your points are worth less and you'll commonly see people with only a couple points draw extremely difficult to draw tags, but that is not what's happening here in MT. Look at the units draw history. Applicants, tags available, and points to draw remain fairly consistent. There are trends where tags get easier to draw, trends where they get more difficult to draw, but that is because there is a correlation between tags available and applicants. You're talking about fluctuations that are almost unnoticeable for a tag pool of this size.

What is more likely in my eyes is that there were a fair number of people who had just been buying points the last few years and are not part of the historical statistical pool. This years legislative session got them all scared and they decided to cash in their points before changes were made. But even that is speculation that I'm not comfortable betting on.

 

[sacountry]

Holy Shit!!!!!! My 14 points are gone,

Successful on 380-20 Elk

I've had 2 buddies with that tag in the last two years. Both had some private access. From talking to them, I wouldn't pass up a solid 6 if you see one.

 

[8andcounting]

No. I say this politely and respectfully, but you're off your rocker. Are there small fluctuations in draw percentages due to the NR tags becoming more of a crap shoot? Sure, you get no argument from me there. But in general, the statistical trends are not shaken by that, certainly not from 90% to 10%. Not with this many tags and applicants. What you are describing sort of happens in Nevada where there's like 5 tags for the whole unit and there is no statistical trend to draw success. In that instance your points are worth less and you'll commonly see people with only a couple points draw extremely difficult to draw tags, but that is not what's happening here in MT. Look at the units draw history. Applicants, tags available, and points to draw remain fairly consistent. There are trends where tags get easier to draw, trends where they get more difficult to draw, but that is because there is a correlation between tags available and applicants. You're talking about fluctuations that are almost unnoticeable for a tag pool of this size.

What is more likely in my eyes is that there were a fair number of people who had just been buying points the last few years and are not part of the historical statistical pool. This years legislative session got them all scared and they decided to cash in their points before changes were made. But even that is speculation that I'm not comfortable betting on.

Respectfully, we are both right and both wrong . In breaks unit I apply in 2019 6 bonus point holders were 1/6 drawing . 2020 they were 4/4. 3 points one year might be 0/7 next year 6/7 . It’s random . I know how bonus points work yes your odds are higher with more points but it’s different every year . My best friend drew a hell of a tag today with 3 bonus points

 

[ErictheRed]

Made it - 11 years in a row with one alternate success in there....Thank you Montana. Very grateful for the chance to hunt your state. Now on to the antelope and B tags!

 

[brocksw]

Respectfully, we are both right and both wrong . In breaks unit I apply in 2019 6 bonus point holders were 1/6 drawing . 2020 they were 4/4. 3 points one year might be 0/7 next year 6/7 . It’s random . I know how bonus points work yes your odds are higher with more points but it’s different every year . My best friend drew a hell of a tag today with 3 bonus points

1/6, 4/4..... so you're talking 10 applicants over 2 years out of how many tags? Thousands? Thousands of applicants. Like I said, statistically insignificant and literally has no effect on the predictability of drawing. Your buddy that drew a "hell of a tag with 3 bonus points" is a statistical anomoly. They happen, but NO ONE....and I mean NO ONE plans their draws that way. Why? Because it is just that...an anomoly.

 

[Bugle 'Em In]

I was extremely unselfish and offered up mine and my family’s tags so that someone else could hunt LE units. You’re welcome. See you guys in the general units!

 

[WIbiggame]

NR's will see reduced quota's long before a resident draw...fact.

Agree 100% and I am fine with that if it helps the animals (actual 4 legged ones ) but it's sad bc cutting the NR tags even by 25% isn't going to do much until the R get on board too. Being a landowner in WI it would be a pretty tough pull for me to swallow if WI did so I can 100% understand not wanting this. With that said they better not be bitching about to many people either.

 

[Khunter]

drew NR big game combo with 0 pref points....no luck on the limited tags...

 

[golfer]

1/6, 4/4..... so you're talking 10 applicants over 2 years out of how many tags? Thousands? Thousands of applicants. Like I said, statistically insignificant and literally has no effect on the predictability of drawing. Your buddy that drew a "hell of a tag with 3 bonus points" is a statistical anomoly. They happen, but NO ONE....and I mean NO ONE plans their draws that way. Why? Because it is just that...an anomoly.

What he’s saying is even with points you can’t predict the draw odds cause you just don’t know. So yes one year x amount of points could go 4/4 and the next 1/257 with the same x amount of points. It just depends on if different points come into the draw and apply for units they didn’t the year before.