SAJ-99
Well-known member
We have moved into the "personal insult" stage.
January Inflation
- Thread starter SilentBirdHunter
- Start date
406dn
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- Dec 12, 2019
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To be fair to Trump, he did say that at some point, we would get tired of winning. It's just one more promise made, and promise kept.
I have not looked at my retirement accounts today, to see whether I'm growing more tired of winning. Today was leg day at the gym, so I'll have to divvy up the fatigue, as best I can.
I have not looked at my retirement accounts today, to see whether I'm growing more tired of winning. Today was leg day at the gym, so I'll have to divvy up the fatigue, as best I can.
You can’t make this up:
″‘Preemptive Cuts’ in Interest Rates are being called for by many,”
“virtually No Inflation”
“With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW,”
406dn
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I did just check to see my retirement accounts. More winning, maybe enough, for now. What an own goal, we have not shot ourselves in the foot, we have shot both of them.
rogerthat
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- Aug 29, 2015
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- 3,127
I’m down over 10% in long term treasuries. Being honest, I didn’t see the flee America trade coming. CDs money market or short term treasuries were the right move at the time looking back now. Oh well. I think a Liz Truss moment might still be making its way across the pond. Definitely not ruling that out as a a scenario anyway.
mevertsen
Well-known member
Back on topic.
I checked the AAA gas prices today. Looks like we are about even month over month today.
Wondering how it all works,
Is there a place to store.more oil?
Prices are low-ish, for crude, but is there a place to check the production cost averages?
I checked the AAA gas prices today. Looks like we are about even month over month today.
Wondering how it all works,
Is there a place to store.more oil?
Prices are low-ish, for crude, but is there a place to check the production cost averages?
From this book, I realize it probably lists tariffs as a negotiating tool.
Does the book describe a time when tariffs were used to make other countries lower or even cancel their tariffs?
The point of my question is twofold:
1) I will read the book if it is helpful and
2) Trump seems to be using tariffs in ways that even many republicans decried or at least react with agnosticism or ignorance as to the intended effect.
No one expected the EU to respond to the US's retaliatory tariffs with an offer of 0% if you go to 0%. The natural response is, "Yes! Take it!"
However, Trump/Bessent say it's not enough- we need you (EU) to increase US energy imports by 33%.
Given the state of the SPR, this is risky. Given the state of moratoriums against offshore drilling, this is risky. The US doesn't have much oil to do this, but we could with a policy change.
We don't have much of a hook to broker peace between Ukraine and Russia. Could the US's edge improve if we threatened Russia's imports to the EU and other countries?
SAJ-99
Well-known member
I don't mind if tariffs are used to negotiate deals, but there seems to be no rush to negotiate, so of course it wasn't enough. Japan hit the same wall last week. Trump is negotiating like a NY RE broker...Get close to the deal and ask for more. Japan guy basically said "I have no idea what they want". On a daily basis it becomes clean there is no plan, just a clown show of people lacking the necessary experience to even get the basics of the job done.
If I was a conspiracy guy, I would almost say the entire thing is a set up to make money by investing in specific beaten down assets right before a convenient Truth Social post.
I'm not following. There are no moratoriums against offshore drilling. What there is oil companies staring at a depressed oil price and a curve in backwardation.
Jun $62.3
Sept $60.4
Dec $59.6
in the upper $50's until March 2027.
Most recent estimate I heard was cash-flow breakeven oil price for US companies was around $55. No one is starting an offshore project at these prices. Don't believe me? Watch these leases (ironically, put in the IRA by Biden).
National OCS Oil and Gas Leasing Program
As required by Section 18 of the OCS Lands Act, the National Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Leasing Program (National OCS Program) consists of a schedule of lease sales indicating the size, timing, and location of proposed leasing activities on the OCS that the Secretary of the...
www.boem.gov
I will restate. SPR isn't filled because money has to be allocated in the Congressional budget to do so. I have posited that there is no rush because oil in west Texas is just as safe as oil in a salt cavern in LA. But either way, it isn't policy, it is the budget. It seems everything is about the budget.
El Jason
Well-known member
Dow tumbles more than 1,000 points and dollar hits three-year low as Trump continues to bash Fed Chair Powell — CNN
US stocks and the dollar tumbled Monday as investors assessed continued tariff uncertainty and the implications of President Donald Trump’s ongoing mission to try and oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
I have traded it for 30yrs.
- Joined
- Aug 4, 2016
- Messages
- 1,214
I’m riding a high of killing a turkey and you all are being a bunch of twats.
- Joined
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- Messages
- 1,214
Thread cleaned up. In an effort to keep open for you.
Y’all are walking the line of a small vacation.
LL - leave them alone.
Everyone else - you fed him to keep going.
Y’all are walking the line of a small vacation.
LL - leave them alone.
Everyone else - you fed him to keep going.
I believe in free markets and free trade.
Why should the U.S. force EU to buy our gas? The U.S. can’t be competitive in the global gas market enough to entice the EU want to buy U.S. gas?
This negotiation sounds like something from the Godfather movie - a forced sale.
In regard to your 'no rush to negotiate' observation. I don't know how much time it takes to resolve a tariff deal, but Trump issued a pause on tariffs for 90 days so they could negotiate with 70+ countries. To me, that seems like a 'flash-in-the-pan' amount of time to negotiate resolutions with 70 people, much less Countries.I don't mind if tariffs are used to negotiate deals, but there seems to be no rush to negotiate, so of course it wasn't enough. Japan hit the same wall last week. Trump is negotiating like a NY RE broker...Get close to the deal and ask for more. Japan guy basically said "I have no idea what they want". On a daily basis it becomes clean there is no plan, just a clown show of people lacking the necessary experience to even get the basics of the job done.
If I was a conspiracy guy, I would almost say the entire thing is a set up to make money by investing in specific beaten down assets right before a convenient Truth Social post.
I'm not following. There are no moratoriums against offshore drilling. What there is oil companies staring at a depressed oil price and a curve in backwardation.
Jun $62.3
Sept $60.4
Dec $59.6
in the upper $50's until March 2027.
Most recent estimate I heard was cash-flow breakeven oil price for US companies was around $55. No one is starting an offshore project at these prices. Don't believe me? Watch these leases (ironically, put in the IRA by Biden).
National OCS Oil and Gas Leasing Program
As required by Section 18 of the OCS Lands Act, the National Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Leasing Program (National OCS Program) consists of a schedule of lease sales indicating the size, timing, and location of proposed leasing activities on the OCS that the Secretary of the...
I will restate. SPR isn't filled because money has to be allocated in the Congressional budget to do so. I have posited that there is no rush because oil in west Texas is just as safe as oil in a salt cavern in LA. But either way, it isn't policy, it is the budget. It seems everything is about the budget.
My dad was in the oil business for over 30 years and often helped me understand the myriad and nuanced factors that influence energy prices: OPEC, Wall Street emotion, consumer ignorance, cost to produce, cost to explore, etc. I still don't claim to understand oil markets, but I know enough to revere their fascinating complexity compared to other industries.
Moratoriums are in place and historically are a blue-side campaigning point. Trump tried to nix them during his first term, Biden added them, then Trump nixed them with pending court decisions disputing his executive authority/ability to do so. Trump is personally divided since he still wants to protect his home state from offshore drilling.
You have a point that the $55 price is a deterrent, but shale oil and fracking have historically been more expensive than offshore drilling. This could revert again as it has done in the past.
haha, If Wyoming didn't take so damn long to release draw results, I wouldn't be so curious about the markets and inflation.
El Jason
Well-known member
Prolonged Trade War May Wipe Out 50% Of China’s Oil Demand Growth — Forbes
A prolonged global trade war could have an outsized effect on China's oil demand, according to one research outfit. That would likely mean an oil price slump.
@SAJ-99 drop in prices at the pump? Significant reduction in fracking production?
I do too, but I also like the idea of brokering peace without flexing with more troops and more war; who doesn't? The strategy of using free markets and trade as a tool to broker peace is a fascinating idea. The current administration has not expressed this detail, this is just my wheels turning as a theory to why the POTUS is doing this.
The US isn't so insecure that it's plotting measures that force others to buy its gas. However, Putin is very insecure and blindly obsessed with power and control.
If Trump can diplomatically stick a finger up Putin's butt by chipping away at Russia's economy, I prefer this over sending US troops to the Ukraine.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
OK, in some places maybe (Coast of FL or CA). Of course he can undo most of that if it was done at Federal level. It can seem like it is caught in a "pending court decision", but really it is caught in an economic price depression with extreme uncertainty. I can't even begin to guess what the mental conflict he has on drilling in the Gulf. I tend to think it is pretty flexible.
I think the $55 was the Permian, (It was a former CEO - Don't ever listen to a current CEO talking in a public way - and by cash-flow BE, that means to maintain dividend and keep stock from tanking). Permian is probably the easiest (price per product) place to drill in the US. Everything else is more expensive, regardless of what any AI search says. Transocean and Noble are examples of how management for offshore contracting can result in different outcomes, but both trade with the price of oil. The increasing cost is a confluence of factors. The tariffs on steel and aluminum make building a new rig more expensive and the cost of debt is double what it was 4 years ago. Not to say someone won't lend them money, but it won't be cheap. The same can be said of just about any industry and building a new plant. This is even before trying to find workers.
I stand corrected, my drawn connection of the SPR to the potential inability to produce oil and fill it was fallacious. To your point, a budget reconciliation can quickly resolve that.
My intent was to acknowledge the SPR volume and the US's self-imposed restrictions against energy independence. We have vast reserves in the US, but we have political restrictions against harvesting them.
