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I definitely appreciate that point. I’m always trying to learn and there has been a lot of education the last couple of months on topics I had no idea about.
January Inflation
- Thread starter SilentBirdHunter
- Start date
The ironic thing about this is a good portion of people on here compared to other sites are quite successful and reflect a rich background of occupational disciplines. As you may agree, you have to be if you can afford to hunt out west on a DIY basis for various species. Because we are successful, we spend time to our delight and choose forums carefully.
As I type, my money continues to work for me- not the other way around. This has nothing to do with the size of my paycheck.
The quick and limited banter you see on FB, Insta, Twitter, has little depth, poor context, and results in short comments that promote stunted understanding.
- Joined
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I tried to use my words, so please understand my message was specific to people who waste time arguing with other people that will never change their mind, people who have to personally attack others, or people who whine about things that they can’t control.
It wasn’t JAG isn’t financially fit, so he shouldn’t be on here having meaningful in depth conversations or that SAJ-99 shouldn’t come here to learn things.
“When President Trump convened CEOs of some of the country’s top automakers for a call earlier this month, he issued a warning: They better not raise car prices because of tariffs.
“Trump told the executives that the White House would look unfavorably on such a move, leaving some of them rattled and worried they would face punishment if they increased prices, people with knowledge of the call said.”
Trump Warned U.S. Automakers Not to Raise Prices in Response to Tariffs
“Trump told the executives that the White House would look unfavorably on such a move, leaving some of them rattled and worried they would face punishment if they increased prices, people with knowledge of the call said.”
Trump Warned U.S. Automakers Not to Raise Prices in Response to Tariffs
LopeHunter
Well-known member
I will add that most my buddies that went into the construction trades, residential and commercial, did quite well for the time I was in college, working 5 years then grad school. By age 40, I was doing quite well and several of the plumbers/electricians/roofers were walking a bit humped over with bad knees and chewing on ibuprofen.
My offspring did well in high school and I had no issue paying for their college. I would have happily supported them learning a trade, entering military service or starting a business mowing lawns, etc. My ultimatum was they were not done with structured learning the day they graduated high school.
One of my brothers entered our family business performing manual labor 50 or more hours a week for 37 years. He is happy. Retired to start a cattle ranch. Gets things cut off his face and head from years in the sun.
My other brother went to college. In a line-up, is easy to pick out the brother that worked outdoors and physically stressed his joints for decades.
So, need another column for likelihood can still be physically active to enjoy a mildly physical hunting adventure as retire.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
PCE came in a little hot. Not a big deal but generally showing inflation is stuck.
I would say this is not being helped by tariff threats. If people/businesses don’t know what they will pay, there is a tendency to push the bid up. So we can see some inflation with or without tariffs.
What’s next? The Admin wants yields to go lower but the Fed can’t do that with these numbers. Powell sounded a lot like he and Bessent were talking. Just reading the tea leaves, though. Bessent has stated he wants the 10yr around 3.5%. No idea how he does that with inflation where it is, except maybe with a recession. Next Fed meeting is 40days. My prediction, if they don’t drop rates and we will hear about forcefully replacing Powell, and he has stated he isn’t leaving.
Core inflation in February hits 2.8%, higher than expected; spending increases 0.4%
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/28/pce...are|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
I would say this is not being helped by tariff threats. If people/businesses don’t know what they will pay, there is a tendency to push the bid up. So we can see some inflation with or without tariffs.
What’s next? The Admin wants yields to go lower but the Fed can’t do that with these numbers. Powell sounded a lot like he and Bessent were talking. Just reading the tea leaves, though. Bessent has stated he wants the 10yr around 3.5%. No idea how he does that with inflation where it is, except maybe with a recession. Next Fed meeting is 40days. My prediction, if they don’t drop rates and we will hear about forcefully replacing Powell, and he has stated he isn’t leaving.
Core inflation in February hits 2.8%, higher than expected; spending increases 0.4%
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/28/pce...are|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
thebestusernamesaretaken
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I think that the thing that is really disturbing to folks is that there are no fancy algorithms on this site that confirms to the reader that their leanings is correct and that everyone thinks like they do. It's an actual conversation between people who have similar interests but different approaches.
If you thought that all hunters thought all one way or the other on these issue, I think that the past couple of months proved that incorrect. This I think that these threads might be a good thing. Having actual conversations about big issues that will impact the large majority of us.
If you thought that all hunters thought all one way or the other on these issue, I think that the past couple of months proved that incorrect. This I think that these threads might be a good thing. Having actual conversations about big issues that will impact the large majority of us.
thebestusernamesaretaken
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 19, 2021
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- 450
About 75% of the costs of most vehicles are in the manufacturing. The rest of the costs are in transportation, incentives, customer programs and advertising. Many have issues believing this because vehicle costs are generally speaking the 2nd most expensive item purchased (unless your a non-resident hunter
). People can't believe that cars can be such a low margin item because they are so expensive.FWIW, during a recent discussion, Rogan and Musk conveyed how the two-party system is flawed and that, at best, America would be better represented by at least 6-7 different parties. This wasn't necessarily posited as a solution, but to reveal that even in our politics, an abundance of interests are poorly reflected in the two-party framework.
As Randy has pointed out in earlier podcasts, it isn't always necessarily a Red or Blue issue. Sometimes, the parties will surprise you as to which one or who will advocate for the public land hunter.
To your point, and encouragement to all, please refrain from drawing a quick conclusion about a question or an idea because it comes from someone who appears to vote right or left. There are smart people on both sides, and I like hearing from them all, fight fair and you might learn something new.
Couldn't agree more! Theodore Roosevelt stumped on this specific issue as he ran for the Bull Moose Party. However, as he described in the book, "Theodore Roosevelt: For the Defense", written by Dan Abrams, Boss Party Politics are a combined, mutually agreed alliance to counter third parties. That has only gained strength.
Impressive that Musk and Rogan see this obvious Elephant and Donkey in every person's home. I am not a fan of podcast, with a few exceptions... Maybe worth the listen. Thanks for sharing.
Markets are in a schizo frenzy.
Inflation is going down with a 'typical assumption' that the treasury yield will improve: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_i...flation Rate is at,long term average of 3.28%.
Legitimate concerns exist over recent bond sell-offs and declining treasury yields.
I don't have any realistic expectations of the future except that the markets will likely plunge some more before they improve.
I like Sen. Kennedy's (R) recent reflection. Kennedy said he doesn't know what P. Trump's 'real' plan is. That: "But now he's the rottweiler who's caught the car. And that's the moment that we're in now. My question is what is he going to do with the car?'
Kennedy also expressly remained agnostic and perplexed about how/what goal Trump is aiming for with the escalating tariff reciprocation with China.
Inflation is going down with a 'typical assumption' that the treasury yield will improve: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_i...flation Rate is at,long term average of 3.28%.
Legitimate concerns exist over recent bond sell-offs and declining treasury yields.
I don't have any realistic expectations of the future except that the markets will likely plunge some more before they improve.
I like Sen. Kennedy's (R) recent reflection. Kennedy said he doesn't know what P. Trump's 'real' plan is. That: "But now he's the rottweiler who's caught the car. And that's the moment that we're in now. My question is what is he going to do with the car?'
Kennedy also expressly remained agnostic and perplexed about how/what goal Trump is aiming for with the escalating tariff reciprocation with China.
It could be chest-puffing, but the EU believes it. They and other countries offered to go to a 0%-tariff if the US would reciprocate.
EDIT:
Disclaimer: I'm trying my darndest to avoid taking a position, and to evaluate the current events and decipher why and how certain moves are made and what their impact will be.
honestly i even think accepting that offer from the EU is looking weak in Trumps mind.
in part because it wasn't his idea.
and maybe cause it's also not his goal. which inevitably leads to the question everyone has which is what the hell the actual goal is
honestly i even think accepting that offer from the EU is looking weak in Trumps mind.
in part because it wasn't his idea.
and maybe cause it's also not his goal. which inevitably leads to the question everyone has which is what the hell the actual goal is
That's the crazy thing about Trump. He's not accepting it, but telling the EU to increase energy imports to $350 billion.
(The reason I'm trying not to take a position is because I like some of the things he's doing, but I may hate them later. Also, as I've said elsewhere, spouting an opinion tends to silence reasonable explanations for how things will or won't work. My goal is to improve my understanding of this complicated mess we are in.)
SAJ-99
Well-known member
The problem is the Admin is conflating tariff rates and deficits. They are not the same thing. It doesn't make sense to anyone so there appears to be no plan. For example, Vietnam could go 0% tariffs on US goods and there would still be a trade deficit. Vietnam doesn't want to buy what the US produces. The main target is China, which isn't a surprise given the players in this game. China may route things through Vietnam to make my example a poor one that is ripe for argument, but that is a different discussion.
LopeHunter
Well-known member
Where do you see inflation, at this moment, is headed any way but UP? I expect 5% inflation rate by January of next year and unemployment to be up by then and residential real estate value to be less by then. Economic output will have constricted. That will mean stagflation is highly likely before yearend no matter if Trump wakes up tomorrow and tries to put Humpity Dumpity Tariff back together and into the 2024 Genie bottle.
Trump has no credibility to calm business owners, consumers, and other countries with any words as his recent whipsaw actions show he lacks a plan which can be nor will be explained by anyone with even modest certainly.
This muddled crystal ball means economic investment in new factory capacity, airplanes, warehouses, cargo ships, hotels, subdivisions, theme parks, restaurants, etc is the last thing anyone is willing to roll the dice on when you have no idea what the materials will cost and what will be the direction of the political winds months, years or decades from today. What you do know is rolling the dice on a big investment got riskier the last few months.
Rolling the dice on ordering replenishment of anything that triggers a tariff is pressuring distributors to cut back on order quantity. You can't sell what you don't have but you limit your exposure to what your all-in cost is for imported items and what impact raising your prices has on demand for the items you would stock in your warehouse or store. That leads to lower units sold. Likely you lay off some workers. Make less profits. Less profits can doom a smaller company or mom-and-pop retailer. Do you recall how many restaurants folded during Covid and never got replaced so that building sits empty? Well, buckle up. Decisions are being made today by small businesses and across the dinner table where families are trying to redo their budget to make room for the rising cost of necessities since their household income is not likely to keep up with rising costs. I have been there, done that.
Retired now and buffered from any stress related to falling home prices, investment values, etc. I no longer need to make multi-million dollar decisions on how much product to order in from overseas with 18-month long lead times. My biggest daily decision is whether to sleep in without setting an alarm clock or instead get up early to walk the dog for 3 miles. I do care that my family is being impacted by the new normal of tariff chaos.
