Im bowing out

Some people will sell even at the higher interest rates. In my situation, my house value has grown 3x since I purchased. Housing where I grew up has remained relatively flat. I could sell my house at the high value, pay off my small mortgage, move home in another state, buy a large house on large acreage at a third of the price for cash and pocket a big chunk of money.

Retirement timing would change significantly.

Wife and I talked about it and neither of us want to move back to our home state.
 
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Some people will sell even at the higher interest rates. In my situation, my house value has grown 3x since I purchased. Housing where I grew up has remained relatively flat. I could sell my house at the high value, pay off my small mortgage, move home in another state, buy a large house on large acreage at a third of the price for cash and pocket a big chunk of money.

Retirement timing would change significantly.

Wife and I talked about it and neither of us want to move back to our home state.
And this in a nutshell is what is driving the market. Folks already in the market are less effected. It’s the first timers or short timers that are pinched.
 
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Some people will sell even at the higher interest rates. In my situation, my house value has grown 3x since I purchased. Housing where I grew up has remained relatively flat. I could sell my house at the high value, pay off my small mortgage, move home in another state, buy a large house on large acreage at a third of the price for cash and pocket a big chunk of money.

Retirement timing would change significantly.

Wife and I talked about it and neither of us want to move back to our home state.
What’s your home state?
 
Lower rates could be just around the corner or may never return. No way to tell when
I’d be surprised if we see them any time soon. My rate is 6% from last October and my plan was to refinance with the VA loan “at a lower rate” and I don’t think that is happening for awhile. Turns out being in the military stationed overseas from 2020-2023 was really crappy timing. I missed the once in a generation 2.25% rates and now I will never see them again. I am so jealous of people who secured or refinanced at those low rates. Those missed opportunity costs are left out of most serving in the military conversations, but they impact a lot of service members.
 
I’d be surprised if we see them any time soon. My rate is 6% from last October and my plan was to refinance with the VA loan “at a lower rate” and I don’t think that is happening for awhile. Turns out being in the military stationed overseas from 2020-2023 was really crappy timing. I missed the once in a generation 2.25% rates and now I will never see them again. I am so jealous of people who secured or refinanced at those low rates. Those missed opportunity costs are left out of most serving in the military conversations, but they impact a lot of service members.
A few months of inflation below 3% plus recession signals and the fed will start walking back down. So I would guess we will see 3-4% rates in the next few years. But yah, sub 3% seems unlikely.
 
A few months of inflation below 3% plus recession signals and the fed will start walking back down. So I would guess we will see 3-4% rates in the next few years. But yah, sub 3% seems unlikely.
Labor market needs to tank and it is showing cracks, which sucks if you are on the wrong end of that. That helps cause forced sellers. But anyone making predictions on rates is just guessing. 20years of low rates has everyone anchored on those lower levels, but if the economy doesn't go into a recession, inflation coming down or not, there is no reason for the Fed to lower rates. But the yield curve is clearly jacked right now and banks are tightening purse strings, so mortgage rates are going to be sticky. And then you have this ...

 
Labor market needs to tank and it is showing cracks, which sucks if you are on the wrong end of that. That helps cause forced sellers. But anyone making predictions on rates is just guessing. 20years of low rates has everyone anchored on those lower levels, but if the economy doesn't go into a recession, inflation coming down or not, there is no reason for the Fed to lower rates. But the yield curve is clearly jacked right now and banks are tightening purse strings, so mortgage rates are going to be sticky. And then you have this ...

Why? The link...
 
Labor market needs to tank and it is showing cracks, which sucks if you are on the wrong end of that. That helps cause forced sellers. But anyone making predictions on rates is just guessing. 20years of low rates has everyone anchored on those lower levels, but if the economy doesn't go into a recession, inflation coming down or not, there is no reason for the Fed to lower rates. But the yield curve is clearly jacked right now and banks are tightening purse strings, so mortgage rates are going to be sticky. And then you have this ...

Pretty bad look. Penalize folks who are financially sound (high credit scores) to subsidize those who are less careful with their finances (low credit scores). Not unexpected from this administration.

 
Pretty bad look. Penalize folks who are financially sound (high credit scores) to subsidize those who are less careful with their finances (low credit scores). Not unexpected from this administration.

Absolutely. But honestly, I can’t find any actual hard data on it. Don’t know what the new rule is, can’t find a statement in its application. I’m not even sure it is real news. I feel like we are missing something in the media’s portrayal of the situation because implementing this in a real way would be practically impossible.
 
Absolutely. But honestly, I can’t find any actual hard data on it. Don’t know what the new rule is, can’t find a statement in its application. I’m not even sure it is real news. I feel like we are missing something in the media’s portrayal of the situation because implementing this in a real way would be practically impossible.
Absolutely. But honestly, I can’t find any actual hard data on it. Don’t know what the new rule is, can’t find a statement in its application. I’m not even sure it is real news. I feel like we are missing something in the media’s portrayal of the situation because implementing this in a real way would be practically impossible.
Best I can tell the administrations new rule will change the LLPA from the FHFA and that will increase fees for higher credit score borrowers and decrease fees for lower credit score borrowers on federally backed mortgages. Heaven forbid we incentivize paying your bills on time and being financially solvent. The story is picking up more coverage on a variety of news sources. With all the culture war stuff dominating the news cycle, it’s tough for things that actually affect people’s lives to make it to the top. I believe it takes effect May 1.
 
Best I can tell the administrations new rule will change the LLPA from the FHFA and that will increase fees for higher credit score borrowers and decrease fees for lower credit score borrowers on federally backed mortgages. Heaven forbid we incentivize paying your bills on time and being financially solvent. The story is picking up more coverage on a variety of news sources. With all the culture war stuff dominating the news cycle, it’s tough for things that actually affect people’s lives to make it to the top. I believe it takes effect May 1.
Nothing in these LLPA tables below looks unusual to me. The adjustments (and rates) reflect the probability of default. Adjusting these is normal. It is incorrect, and disingenuous, to suggest one group is paying more to fund another group. That is not happening. I suspect they are just being adjusted to reflect the most recent historical data. But like anything nowadays, it is political.
We saw in the GFC that borrower credit score was not a great indicator of default, and often “higher risk” Mortgages defaulted at a lower rate than those that looked higher in “quality”. Maybe those with high credit scores could afford better bankruptcy lawyers?

 
Nothing in these LLPA tables below looks unusual to me. The adjustments (and rates) reflect the probability of default. Adjusting these is normal. It is incorrect, and disingenuous, to suggest one group is paying more to fund another group. That is not happening. I suspect they are just being adjusted to reflect the most recent historical data. But like anything nowadays, it is political.
We saw in the GFC that borrower credit score was not a great indicator of default, and often “higher risk” Mortgages defaulted at a lower rate than those that looked higher in “quality”. Maybe those with high credit scores could afford better bankruptcy lawyers?

I am confused. You stated that the rates in the LLPAs reflect probability of default but then stated that borrower credit score was not a great indicator of default. Then why use credit score in the LLPA tables? Find some other better indicator. Isn’t probability of default a component of the risk assessment for lenders? Maybe bankers should just scrap the credit check requirement entirely.
 
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