Idaho Mule Deer OTC Success Rates - Real World Experience

[tomengineer]

The flight is booked, lodging booked, hunting license purchased, elk control hunt applied for (7% chance), OTC deer tag to be purchased shortly. Now begins my 8 months of second guessing my choice of unit and state. Looking at deer success rates they generally range from 18-25% for majority mule deer units where I'm looking. Then I make the mistake of coming here and going over to Rokslide and geeking out on specific unit comments/suggestions. They range from "I walked around this unit for 7 days and didn't see a living creature" to "winter 16/17 killed them all" to "the snow is usually 36" deep by September". Now after a couple years of planning hunts I'm starting to develop a sort of radar for hunting forum BS when people want to discourage hunters in a certain areas and I'm kind of getting that vibe for some of these threads. My question is do you find your success rates or success rates of non-residents in general to be in line with what Idaho fish and game has published for various units? The success rates are for the general season correct? There are 3 of us, we are planning to spike camp and cover some miles if that helps. I realize this is a really general question but I just have no experience in Idaho. Also if anyone is out that way, how has the winter been on the animals?

 

[Idhikker]

Feel free to PM. This winter has been about average throughout most of the state. There are certain areas that are really struggling after 2 out of 3 hard winters in recent years. They span various parts of West, Central, and Eastern Idaho depending on winter range. Mostly it’s worse the further east you go.

I read or hear 20+ trip reports per year from friends and acquaintances. The last few years have not been easy in a number of places.

 

[Duck-Slayer]

No deer in Idaho they all got eaten by the wolves, move on nothing to see here lol
Matt

 

[Trial153]

Hunters are horrible sandbaggers.....

 

[tomengineer]

No deer in Idaho they all got eaten by the wolves, move on nothing to see here lol
Matt

Lol yep been reading that a lot. Of course then when I go to Montana it’s “you’ll get to meet all the hunt talk users as they are all in Eastern MT during deer season”.

 

[tomengineer]

Hunters are horrible sandbaggers.....

Can’t say I blame them for not divulging information but the purposeful misinformation is a bummer. I’ll give it a whirl either way.

 

[2rocky]

From my experiences hunting new country, I'd say a group of 4 guys in their first year of hunting an OTC area can anticipate 1 out of 4 success/opportunity. I think the success rate increases exponentially each year you go back to the unit.

I'm basing this off of my experiences hunting with my family.

I'm also a big believer in the "day 3 phenomenon". You spend 2 days looking for deer and figure out where the best place to be is on day 3. You also tend to sit and glass more because you are whipped from hiking all over Hell's half acre the day before.

I like your idea of hunting a Draw unit for OTC deer and getting to know it for when you do draw that LE tag. 4 sets of eyes covering 4x the ground makes for a chance someone will connect. If it is a place you like to hunt then give it a chance. SOMEONE is having success there.

 

[tomengineer]

From my experiences hunting new country, I'd say a group of 4 guys in their first year of hunting an OTC area can anticipate 1 out of 4 success/opportunity. I think the success rate increases exponentially each year you go back to the unit.

I'm basing this off of my experiences hunting with my family.

I'm also a big believer in the "day 3 phenomenon". You spend 2 days looking for deer and figure out where the best place to be is on day 3. You also tend to sit and glass more because you are whipped from hiking all over Hell's half acre the day before.

I like your idea of hunting a Draw unit for OTC deer and getting to know it for when you do draw that LE tag. 4 sets of eyes covering 4x the ground makes for a chance someone will connect. If it is a place you like to hunt then give it a chance. SOMEONE is having success there.

Ok awesome. Kind of what I’m thinking. We hunt with the same core group each year so we are able to build on each others’ observations and experience when we hunt a new place. Your comment lines up with my expectations and thanks for the input.

 

[Idhikker]

You could do a little better than 25% with hard hunting and a little luck.

 

[idelkslayer]

The flight is booked, lodging booked, hunting license purchased, elk control hunt applied for (7% chance), OTC deer tag to be purchased shortly. Now begins my 8 months of second guessing my choice of unit and state. Looking at deer success rates they generally range from 18-25% for majority mule deer units where I'm looking. Then I make the mistake of coming here and going over to Rokslide and geeking out on specific unit comments/suggestions. They range from "I walked around this unit for 7 days and didn't see a living creature" to "winter 16/17 killed them all" to "the snow is usually 36" deep by September". Now after a couple years of planning hunts I'm starting to develop a sort of radar for hunting forum BS when people want to discourage hunters in a certain areas and I'm kind of getting that vibe for some of these threads. My question is do you find your success rates or success rates of non-residents in general to be in line with what Idaho fish and game has published for various units? The success rates are for the general season correct? There are 3 of us, we are planning to spike camp and cover some miles if that helps. I realize this is a really general question but I just have no experience in Idaho. Also if anyone is out that way, how has the winter been on the animals?

The application period for elk hasn't started yet. So when you say that "Elk control hunt applied for". you might want to double check that. Unless you know something I don't know.

 

[tomengineer]

The application period for elk hasn't started yet. So when you say that "Elk control hunt applied for". you might want to double check that. Unless you know something I don't know.

Ah yes poor choice of wording. Controlled hunt number selected, hunting license purchased, mouse hovering over elk controlled hunt application.

 

[brymoore]

The winter of ‘16/‘17 did kill a lot of deer. Thankfully, it was when the population levels were high. My experience last fall (in several units) was lots of does with the occasional buck. I’m seeing lots of does on the wintering grounds right now.

I think the biggest mistake eastern hunters make are hunting Mule Deer like white tails. You need to hunt mule deer differently to be successful.

 

[Aussie_hunter_JD]

I haven't hunted the states yet but I only give percentages a little interest in looking at units I'd like to apply for. There's gotta be a lot of variables in there. Easily accessible units with lots of land are going to attract more hunters, but it's also going to attract more bad hunters.

20 bad hunters are rarely going to be as successful as 10 good ones.

 

[tomengineer]

I haven't hunted the states yet but I only give percentages a little interest in looking at units I'd like to apply for. There's gotta be a lot of variables in there. Easily accessible units with lots of land are going to attract more hunters, but it's also going to attract more bad hunters.

20 bad hunters are rarely going to be as successful as 10 good ones.

Yes that's a good point but it's all I've got to go on for the moment. I'm not even sure what the true harvest reporting rate is and how much fish and game has to make up.

 

[tomengineer]

The winter of ‘16/‘17 did kill a lot of deer. Thankfully, it was when the population levels were high. My experience last fall (in several units) was lots of does with the occasional buck. I’m seeing lots of does on the wintering grounds right now.

I think the biggest mistake eastern hunters make are hunting Mule Deer like white tails. You need to hunt mule deer differently to be successful.

Thank you sir. I'm reading my books assigned last post.

 

[brymoore]

Yes that's a good point but it's all I've got to go on for the moment. I'm not even sure what the true harvest reporting rate is and how much fish and game has to make up.

IDFG doesn’t make up any of the data. Hunters are to report each year or you can’t buy a license the next year.

 

[tomengineer]

IDFG doesn’t make up any of the data. Hunters are to report each year or you can’t buy a license the next year.

Ok thanks that’s good to know.

 

[COEngineer]

IDFG doesn’t make up any of the data. Hunters are to report each year or you can’t buy a license the next year.

I think the insinuation is that hunters intentionally under-report their success with the hopes that no new hunters will want to try that unit (because it has a low success rate). I don't know how much this happens, but it's another one of those things that could be dramatically affected by the number of responses for a given unit. For example, if there's a unit with only 10 tags and 5 hunters make a false report, that's going to skew the results a lot more than a unit that has 100 hunters and 5 liars.

 

[brymoore]

I think the insinuation is that hunters intentionally under-report their success with the hopes that no new hunters will want to try that unit (because it has a low success rate). I don't know how much this happens, but it's another one of those things that could be dramatically affected by the number of responses for a given unit. For example, if there's a unit with only 10 tags and 5 hunters make a false report, that's going to skew the results a lot more than a unit that has 100 hunters and 5 liars.

You really think this happens? It’s called poaching when you have an unreported animal in your freezer. I’d rather not have that conversation with IDFG.

Contrary to politicians, most people are honest.

 

[COEngineer]

You really think this happens? It’s called poaching when you have an unreported animal in your freezer. I’d rather not have that conversation with IDFG.

Contrary to politicians, most people are honest.

Sorry, I forget that not all Mtn West States are the same. In CO, it is just a phone survey for deer and elk (unless you are in a mandatory CWD testing unit).