Idaho Elk
- Thread starter JWhunter
- Start date
Muley_Stalker
Well-known member
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then.
Sorry, but you left yourself open. Kidding of course.
JW, remember just because you draw an elk tag in this state doesn't guarantee you an elk! It's still a very tough road to hoe to become successful, you will still put out a similar effort as you would on an OTC hunt here on Public Land! As some have mentioned, get out there & hunt so when you do draw you have a decent idea about how to find & hunt these awesome animals! (grin)
Steelhead, yes I did OK on the Muley hunt! (grin)
ElkNut1
Steelhead, yes I did OK on the Muley hunt! (grin)
ElkNut1
idelkslayer
Well-known member
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- Aug 28, 2013
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JWhunter said "It's just frustrating that we can't have a better system that works for us... I mean you shouldn't be able to put in 30 years and not draw a tag let alone multiple tags"
It depends on which tags you apply for. If you are putting in for unit 50-1A bull tags there are 100 tags and in 2015 989 applicants. So you should be able to do simple math and realize that you are applying for a unit that you should expect to go 10 years without drawing.
If someone is applying for unit 50-1 10 tags and 265 applicants you should be prepared to go 26 years without drawing.
It cracks me up when someone complains of never drawing a tag that they have applied for for 30 years, guess what if you apply for a hunt that has 50 tags and 1821 applicants (elk unit 31) you can expect to not draw a tag for 30 years or more.
Fact is 22,461 people applied for deer hunts this year with draw odds ranging from 7% - 1%. They can expect to wait 14 to 100 years respectively to draw those tags. No bonus point or preference point system will change that. But every year they will complain that they never draw.
Odds cannot increase unless tag numbers increase that's it. It is #tags/#applicants. You either have to increase tag numbers or decrease applicant numbers. There is no magic system that can change Math.
Now if you apply for tags with better odds, say unit 37A bull elk. With 70 tags and 354 applicants (20% odds) you can reasonably expect to draw once every 5 years. If you go more than 7 years without drawing the tag I would understand your frustration but the random draw system would still be fair.
It depends on which tags you apply for. If you are putting in for unit 50-1A bull tags there are 100 tags and in 2015 989 applicants. So you should be able to do simple math and realize that you are applying for a unit that you should expect to go 10 years without drawing.
If someone is applying for unit 50-1 10 tags and 265 applicants you should be prepared to go 26 years without drawing.
It cracks me up when someone complains of never drawing a tag that they have applied for for 30 years, guess what if you apply for a hunt that has 50 tags and 1821 applicants (elk unit 31) you can expect to not draw a tag for 30 years or more.
Fact is 22,461 people applied for deer hunts this year with draw odds ranging from 7% - 1%. They can expect to wait 14 to 100 years respectively to draw those tags. No bonus point or preference point system will change that. But every year they will complain that they never draw.
Odds cannot increase unless tag numbers increase that's it. It is #tags/#applicants. You either have to increase tag numbers or decrease applicant numbers. There is no magic system that can change Math.
Now if you apply for tags with better odds, say unit 37A bull elk. With 70 tags and 354 applicants (20% odds) you can reasonably expect to draw once every 5 years. If you go more than 7 years without drawing the tag I would understand your frustration but the random draw system would still be fair.
Muley_Stalker
Well-known member
Hi Paul.........This is Still Hunter.
Hey ElkStalker how's it going! I should have known it was you by your handle! (grin)
idelkhunter, if referring to me sir on the 30 year comment I'm not complaining, I was merely setting the facts down so JW could see there are many of us who do not draw even after long periods of time! I get to hunt elk here in ID every year, I'm happy! (grin) Drawing a tag would just give me a second one! (grin)
ElkNut1
idelkhunter, if referring to me sir on the 30 year comment I'm not complaining, I was merely setting the facts down so JW could see there are many of us who do not draw even after long periods of time! I get to hunt elk here in ID every year, I'm happy! (grin) Drawing a tag would just give me a second one! (grin)
ElkNut1
Altitude_Freak
New member
Every time I read the word "fair" I immediately imagine somebody crying on their keyboard.
jryoung
Well-known member
This is a great summary and really hits some key points. It also highlights how bad at math some people are, but I guess this is why we have Powerball and Mega Millions.
Spending some time now a reading what the pundits (Eastmans/Hunting Fool) have been saying for the past couple of years and overlaying their recommendations with with the number of applicants in a unit will tell you a lot.
I understand your simple math but you do understand that just based on your numbers... with point system you get the tag that often... without it I could put in for unit 37A like you said and I could not ever draw the tag so just basing it off how likely it is to happen doesn't mean it will and I understand Idaho has some great opportunity for hunting, I'm not trying to complain I'm simply saying there has to be a better more equal system.
Elkmagnet
Well-known member
This is simply not true. If you look at states that have implemented a point system there is always an influx of new applications on the first year. People who didn't regularly apply will start to. They want to "get in on the ground floor" and the will apply every year as to "stay in the max point pool"
So your odds will go down.
Scenario -
Hey Jim Bob you get your draws in this year?
- No I'm not sure I'll have time to hunt this fall so I'm going to save my money.
Well we just got a new point system so you should put in anyway if you want the best chance next year.
- oh really great I'm finally going to draw 45 I've put in for 5 years and couldn't draw, the old system was so in fair.
- Yeah everyone is so excited I even got my mom and sis to get in on this.
- Dude your mom is bed ridden!
Yeah but if she builds points she can draw in ten years and sign the tag over to little Johnny whe he gets old enough to hunt.
Did this improve your odds???
TheDudeAbides
Well-known member
If they started a new point system today, there would not be a system out there that would help you draw a tag with low draw odds.
I like point systems, but they are not the end all cure all for people getting tags. They are investing in future hunting opportunities and not great options at getting tags now.
idelkslayer
Well-known member
- Joined
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Elknut1 What I said was not in reference to you, just other people I have encountered online and in person.
JW: You are right that it is possible to go your entire life without drawing a 10% odd tag in Idaho, but it is very unlikely. Even in point systems it is not guaranteed to draw every x number of years. Point creep continues to push out even the easier to draw units. Max point holders who have only been buying and building points but not applying can jump in and change the odds further.
My attitude has been that I plan the OTC hunts as my primary hunt, they are what I dream about and look forward to, draw hunts when they happen are just a bonus.
JW: You are right that it is possible to go your entire life without drawing a 10% odd tag in Idaho, but it is very unlikely. Even in point systems it is not guaranteed to draw every x number of years. Point creep continues to push out even the easier to draw units. Max point holders who have only been buying and building points but not applying can jump in and change the odds further.
My attitude has been that I plan the OTC hunts as my primary hunt, they are what I dream about and look forward to, draw hunts when they happen are just a bonus.
Controlled cow hunt or a general season one? Its pretty hard to kill a decent bull when you are shooting cows
quarterhorse
Member
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- Nov 3, 2011
- Messages
- 138
I fail to see the usefulness of points systems other than to possibly generate some income for game departments. Why should any hunter have a better chance at a tag than the next guy just because he played the game last year and got a point? What about young hunters or a guy just getting into hunting. They should have a "fair" chance at a tag? Random drawings treat everyone equally - how can that be improved upon?
Muley_Stalker
Well-known member
How does it generate income? All tags worth buying are sold no matter what the system is. It would make sense if popular units cost more money, but the best, or the worse tag sells for the same price.
quarterhorse
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I'm not sure it does. Likely has a high cost to implement for the game department. Likely a PITA for the fish &game to manage and very difficult to change a few years down the road once people are "invested" in the system. Just more reasons a random drawing is simple and equal to all.
Muley_Stalker
Well-known member
I'm not fond of the points system, but a 100% random draw wouldn't be good either. With bad luck you could go 20 years, and never get a tag for a unit that only takes 1 point now.
What's more "fair" than a random draw. If you want a guaranteed tag, you can buy otc, if you want a "premium" tag you can hope you draw. With a little research you can improve the odds. If you consistantly put in for the hardest to draw unit, you probably won't draw very often. Some people have good luck, some not so much. I've only drawn one tag in my 35+ years of hunting that wasn't an undersubscribed hunt, but I still get to hunt every year. Why do people want to fix what aint broke?
