I made a free draw odds site for Montana

[Beignet]

I’m into it. Putting all that CSV data into a spreadsheet it a real pain to scroll through to see different units. Nice thing for your programming portfolio as well.

 

[wihunter12]

I hire Software Engineers and for someone in your shoes this is great experience. Looks good!

 

[rmyoung1]

All the data is available at fwp for free. So sure. This is for people who want a better experience than staring at a spread sheet.

The other positive thing is I can find this. That darned MT FWP spreadsheet… I swear I take a different inter webs route to get there each time.

 

[8andcounting]

I like it. ^^^ = A Hole

This is the dumbest post of the year that says a lot

 

[theat]

This is the dumbest post of the year that says a lot

Well thankfully we are only 18 days in, so lots of time for improvement.

Although, I would suggest that your post I was replying to deserves the honor. When someone is learning a new skill (in this case to try and get a job) and is willing to share their work with us FOR FREE, I can't think of any reason to negatively criticize their work and them other than to be an A Hole. Not saying constructive criticism isn't warranted, but thats not what you did.

 

[Irrelevant]

Sweet little site man. Can't wait for the coming soon part seeing as how there are no deer or elk in MT, you'all shot 'em all already.

 

[Johnny Bravo]

Very nice of you to give us a new way to look at the data. If you enjoy I/T I will drop a few buzzwords that you may or may not know. Learn or get trained on some of these and you can write your own ticket . I know there are many more, but these are still hot skills.

Terraform
Cloud
Splunk
Ansible
JIRA
Agile

 

[LopeHunter]

You show nothing of value we didn’t know about

You can’t make your candle burn brighter by blowing out his. He did something of value today and shows initiative and a thirst for learning. You merely criticized without an iota of constructive criticism or encouragement. That speaks more of you than anyone you kick dirt on.

Have a good day, Sir!

 

[Hem]

Well thankfully we are only 18 days in, so lots of time for improvement.

Although, I would suggest that your post I was replying to deserves the honor. When someone is learning a new skill (in this case to try and get a job) and is willing to share their work with us FOR FREE, I can't think of any reason to negatively criticize their work and them other than to be an A Hole. Not saying constructive criticism isn't warranted, but thats not what you did.

Pretty certain most of this guys comments are steeped in negativity.

 

[Mountain Mule]

Pretty cool project you got going here atlas. Glad some of us UM grads are doing something cool

 

[Schaaf]

Getting hung up on the R/NR portion?

 

[Khunter]

This is the dumbest post of the year that says a lot

actually, you are not correct. your prior post easily takes that ephemeral prize. But worry not, the year is young.

 

[Beignet]

 

[7Bartman]

I haven't dug into your website yet, but first off I'll say kudos to you. Sad that others have the audacity to be critical of your sharing.
Like others have said I think there may be additional value off of bootstrapping the 2022 results and providing a confidence interval around your estimates. This will be helpful as afterall, the 2023 inputs (e.g., number of hunters, point pool of those hunters) will be somewhat different.

Good work!

 

[atlas]

Getting hung up on the R/NR portion?

So it will just show you how many people at your point level were successful in the draw. If you have 5 bonus points and are a resident, it will show you what percentage of applicants with your point tier and residency “status” were successful in the draw.

Other than that it doesn’t do much right now. But, it does set up the infrastructure to do more with the site. Like If I bring in the preference point draw for non residents or actually estimate the probability of drawing.

 

[geewhiz]

You show nothing of value we didn’t know about

Good grief man. Haven't you any decency?

 

[Valley1320]

Good work! I like it. I was hoping to see it was for wyoming. But that's awesome work.

 

[YoungGun]

So it will just show you how many people at your point level were successful in the draw. If you have 5 bonus points and are a resident, it will show you what percentage of applicants your point tier and residency “status” were successful in the draw.

Other than that it doesn’t do much right now. But, it does set up the infrastructure to do more with the site. Like If I bring in the preference point draw for non residents or actually estimate the probability of drawing.

Atlas, thanks for sharing! This is certainly more streamlined than the spreadsheets most of us refer to from FWP.

I could be off in my understanding of how Montana "squares" bonus points, giving those with even a few more points many more "tickets" in the proverbial hat. But would I be wrong in saying that one could potentially figure their "straight" odds using historical data by dividing their total number of tickets by the calculated average of historical tickets for any given hunt? Of course I am making the assumption that no bonus points = 1 ticket, 1 bonus point = 2, 2 bonus points = 4, 3=9 and so on.

So if there were a unit where historically there were 9 total applicants that generally averaged 5 bonus points, and I had 2, I would have 1.7% straight odds (25 tickets/applicant x 9 = 225 + my 4 = 229 total. My 4 "tickets"/229 "total tickets" = 1.74%). Of course I'm not including the 90/10 split, which would present a whole new level.

If anyone knows how this works in a more in-depth manner, please educate me!

 

[wyoelkfan15]

Great little site. Easy to use and better than playing hide and go seek on the MTFWP website.

Not sure why you are getting hate from one particular forum user. Keep it up.

 

[Irrelevant]

For WA, which uses a bonus point system for special draws, I use last years total applicants and the avg points of all of those applicants to generate a total number of entries for each hunt compared to my potential total number of entries divided by the number of tags. While it is not quite accurate, it is consistent therefore giving you a basis for comparisons and it's really not that far off, I've pulled the actual records for various hunts with the differing distributions of points by applicants and found the true odds I'd draw are different than my method above, but only by a couple of percent, maybe that because WA has many hundred if not thousands of people applying for each hunt so the variability is washed away by the shear quantity of applicants; IDK. The one biggest hitch is simply that last year, or any previous years, are not necessarily indicative of the future.