I made a free draw odds site for Montana

[atlas]

Hey everyone. I'll use this thread to introduce myself and share my draw odds site.

I'll start off by sharing my site, https://drawodds.netlify.app/. Here is a quick demo of me using the site

. Right now the 2022 draw statistics for elk, deer, antelope, and antelope b permits are on the site. You should be able to navigate through the site and easily view the draw stats for every unit with a permit. In the next few days, I'll add deer b, elk b, moose sheep, and goat stats. Down the road, I'll add harvest data and hunter number statistics and use that to generate some graphs on the site.

My name is Atlas and I live in Missoula. I think it's a given that I love to hunt and fish. I went to UM and got myself a fisheries degree, worked as a fish tech for the university, and then went up to Glacier NP to work as a tech in the Park Service fish crew. I've always been interested in coding since my days writing R at UM. After getting laid off from my fish tech job for the season in 2021, I jumped back into coding. I eventually got good enough to pick up freelance clients and now I have a paid internship coding for a small company. I am now looking for a full-time role as a web developer/software engineer.

This site is something I've kicked around doing since I started coding. I hope you all find it useful. If you see any mistakes or would like to see anything please let me know. I'll never monetize the site, I'm using it as a way to showcase my skills and build something that is useful for myself and my friends. If you appreciate the site please share it with your friends. If you like the site and work at a company that hires software engineers I want to talk to you .

Thanks for checking it out.

 

[Nameless Range]

That is really cool Atlas. Thanks for sharing!

 

[geewhiz]

Been playing around on it since you posted earlier today. I may be burning some points this year.

 

[atlas]

Thanks guys. Makes me happy to know people are using it.

 

[DFS]

Very cool good for you for doing that. Good start for curbing the huntin fool and go hunts of the worlds. They have done normal hunters no favors.

 

[KSArcher06]

This is awesome!

 

[atlas]

I’ll get moose, sheep and goat up soon. Now that I have real users I’m a lot more fearful of breaking stuff on the site. So if I don’t get around to doing it tomorrow I’ll hold off until after the weekend.

 

[homers]

Anyway to sign in other the with google?

 

[rmyoung1]

Lots of work you’re putting into this. Good luck with the job search.

Question for you: Are you actually calculating draw odds or are you regurgitating the report from the state that shows how the draw actually played out? Big difference between those two things, right?

 

[atlas]

Anyway to sign in other the with google?

I can add another method next week. Just regular email?

 

[atlas]

Lots of work you’re putting into this. Good luck with the job search.

Question for you: Are you actually calculating draw odds or are you regurgitating the report from the state that shows how the draw actually played out? Big difference between those two things, right?

Right big difference. Because Montana is a random draw anything can happen no matter how many points you have.

I spent some time looking for the right formula to estimate the probability of drawing but I couldn’t get it quite right. If anyone can offer some formula advice I’ll gladly take it. Right now this is last years draw success to use as a reference. Ideally I’ll show both side by side.

 

[rmyoung1]

Right big difference. Because Montana is a random draw anything can happen no matter how many points you have.

I spent some time looking for the right formula to estimate the probability of drawing but I couldn’t get it quite right. If anyone can offer some formula advice I’ll gladly take it. Right now this is last years draw success to use as a reference. Ideally I’ll show both side by side.

Yeah, I think some here are assuming you’re showing actual draw odds. Not to say what you’re showing isn’t valuable or interesting, but just because 2 dudes out of 20 drew at your point level doesn’t mean your draw odds were 10%. Just like it doesn’t mean that the guy who won the power ball lotto had a 100% chance to win.

For some of these states, calculating actual draw odds will be next to impossible without running millions of draw simulations. Even Montana’s draw, especially for NRs, gets tough when you try to simulate the NR cap.

 

[8andcounting]

You show nothing of value we didn’t know about

 

[atlas]

You show nothing of value we didn’t know about

All the data is available at fwp for free. So sure. This is for people who want a better experience than staring at a spread sheet.

 

[atlas]

Yeah, I think some here are assuming you’re showing actual draw odds. Not to say what you’re showing isn’t valuable or interesting, but just because 2 dudes out of 20 drew at your point level doesn’t mean your draw odds were 10%. Just like it doesn’t mean that the guy who won the power ball lotto had a 100% chance to win.

For some of these states, calculating actual draw odds will be next to impossible without running millions of draw simulations. Even Montana’s draw, especially for NRs, gets tough when you try to simulate the NR cap.

Yeah totally

 

[Nameless Range]

All the data is available at fwp for free. So sure. This is for people who want a better experience than staring at a spread sheet.

I find free convenience, delivered more efficiently than it would be otherwise, valuable. It’s a cool project, Atlas.

 

[8andcounting]

Waste of time - get a job

 

[theat]

I like it. ^^^ = A Hole

 

[atlas]

@rmyoung1 This has been on my site from the start because I didn't want there to be confusion.

I am currently working on estimating the probability of drawing. Right now I show the draw results from 2022. Montana has a bonus point system with a random draw. As you accrue points you have a greater chance of drawing, but you have a chance to draw at any point level.

 

[WapitiBob]

Ron wold does predictive odds for Oregon; using years worth of previous data.