How long to draw NV?

[MaddH]

I’ve drawn some great tags and had great hunts including an 83” net B&C antelope. I feel it’s worth the chance. Drew a great deer tag last year with only 2 points, sure wasn’t expecting that

 

[ImBillT]

View attachment 181763

This thread exists because the OP wants some semblance of a time line. Obviously someone cares....that’s why he started the thread. I gave him information, and a means by which to evaluate the time period he should be prepared for. You have never made a statement that useful about NV draw odds.

I also find it comical that you respond to my posts almost without fail yet claim not to care. Yes, “no one” includes you. Apparently, at least two people in this thread care.

 

[Gr8bawana]

 

[Cammy]

Try this. Find a random number generator on-line. Set the parameters to pull random numbers between 1 and 99,000,000. Square your points and pull that number of numbers from the random number generator. The lowest number that turns up is your draw number. From there you are racked and stacked amongst the other applicants. Now you don't get to "pull the slot machine handle" to determine your random number as the State computer does that for you. ImBILLT responded to my post regarding "Nevada non-resident 2021" over in the Tag, application and drawing room that has some pretty deep statistical analysis regarding draw odds (see post #46).

 

[thebestusernamesaretaken]

Wow, doesn't Go Hunt have some potentially useful information? Someone should post that as an illustration

 

[ImBillT]

Wow, doesn't Go Hunt have some potentially useful information? Someone should post that as an illustration
Yes they do, and actually, their odds are going to be more accurate than if you squared everyone’s points and went with your number of chances compared to the total number of chances, because if a zero point holder gets drawn, then only one chance is removed from the hat, but if a 20pt holder is drawn, then 401 chances come out of the hat(he can’t draw more than one tag), AND because there is also a slight chance at a person ahead of you drawing a different choice and thus not being included. Due to the extremely limited number of tags, these effects are small. You can figure that out quickly by comparing the odds from GoHunt(derived from draw simulation) to odds that you might calculate quickly by hand(these effects can be accounted for in a hand calculation, but it’s not quick and easy. It involves using all of the data from every hunt code to determine the probability that someone ahead of you chose drew something else[which can be calculated] and thus was not in the running for the tag in question, and the probability that the applicants who draw the first few tags for a hunt code have lots of points or very few.(that can also be calculated). Again, both effects are small whenever there are very few tags.

Probably not a good idea to post screen shots of draw odds from goHunt. Surely that violates some terms of service.(I definitely have not read them).

Back to the OP. The simplest way of viewing odds(applicants/tags or NR applicants/NR tags if you’re a NR) is the bet way to get a sense of how long of a ride to be prepared for. In a random state, it’s just as likely to be anywhere on that timeline. With bonus points, it’s more likely to be toward the second half than the first half, and with squared bonus points it’s more likely to be toward the end than in the first half. But hey, with preference points it’s guaranteed to be AT THE END.

 

[MaddH]

I’m not very smart on numbers and I know it costs some $$$ to apply. But that being said if you don’t apply you can’t draw and I’ve drawn some amazing tags here in NV. Don’t over think it if you can afford, just have fun

 

[Gr8bawana]

You know who every time a question about draw odds comes up

 

[mdhunter]

I remember watching a hunting show and the elk guide said "I have hunted with plenty of NR elk hunters but never met one who drew twice".

 

[lastlight]

Those who’ve drawn “x” amount of tags in the last 10-20 years for species “y” don’t relate to the guys jumping in the draw today. Take a look for yourself and any random unit for every species and you’ll find 2-3 times as many applicants in 2020 compared to 2017. All of our odds are diminishing every year because demand has sky rocketed and supply for the most part is in decline (mule deer) and slightly increasing (elk NV, but not nearly enough for supply).

 

[Gr8bawana]

Those who’ve drawn “x” amount of tags in the last 10-20 years for species “y” don’t relate to the guys jumping in the draw today. Take a look for yourself and any random unit for every species and you’ll find 2-3 times as many applicants in 2020 compared to 2017. All of our odds are diminishing every year because demand has sky rocketed and supply for the most part is in decline (mule deer) and slightly increasing (elk NV, but not nearly enough for supply).

How is that possible? We regularly keep being told by a few people on this forum how hunting is dying because of hunter numbers going down every year.

 

[lastlight]

How is that possible? We regularly keep being told by a few people on this forum how hunting is dying because of hunter numbers going down every year.

It’s been explained a lot and pretty easy to see the numbers are declining in the east (due to loss of private access) but sky rocketing in the west do to all this social media shit. I feel it’s like a cancer that won’t stop growing. As if there aren’t already 50 how to apply in “x” state videos let’s make 10 more. Let’s make more come to this region and hunt OTC archery, whoops that’s being turned to limited now sorry everyone. I get it, we need voices. But we need to grow the resource first and not just hope we will still be able to get a tag or two a year in the future.

 

[HUNTNNW]

as a NR my wife and myself drew deer after 2 years of applying. We now have 5 points this year for deer. We drew what was called by many a bad unit or just to many tags. It was the best mule deer hunt we had ever been on. Probably saw 40 or so bucks, not a single person out of their rig hiking. Both shot very nice bucks

 

[brownbear932008]

It’s been explained a lot and pretty easy to see the numbers are declining in the east (due to loss of private access) but sky rocketing in the west do to all this social media shit. I feel it’s like a cancer that won’t stop growing. As if there aren’t already 50 how to apply in “x” state videos let’s make 10 more. Let’s make more come to this region and hunt OTC archery, whoops that’s being turned to limited now sorry everyone. I get it, we need voices. But we need to grow the resource first and not just hope we will still be able to get a tag or two a year in the future.

I couldn't agree more, an area I have hunted for years here in the East is also being over run the last few years because of a handful of YouTube channels in circulation. In the last two years I've met guys from at least four different States in the area after deer. It was an area that before the Tube I never once saw a non resident in.
To answer the OPs question hey if you have the extra cash apply in NV. I quit that point game this year after several years of buying the license and points. Someone's gotta draw but as a newer applicant you can't deny the odds are very very slim of drawing there for most species. Having said that a friend of a friend killed a darn nice 340 bull last season on his tag with ZERO points. Think the number of apps in that zone were in the 2,000 to 3,000 range and his odds were well below 1%. What can you say on occasion someone gets struck by lightning.

 

[Trap]

Your best odds with 4 points going in are 4 percent in a couple units. Says trophy potential 70-75. That doesn’t sound worth it to me but I’m wasting money on out of state mountain goat tags with way worse odds ha ha.

 

[Trap]

Sooo...you chime in to every NV thread and tell people to spend money cause there’s a chance, and I chime in to every NV thread and tell them what their chances are. I guess neither of us can help ourselves.

Can you tell me what is so wrong with giving NRs a clear picture of what to expect from the NV draw and letting them decide if they want to get in or not?

You’ve never given anyone a clear picture of anything. You just appeal to their emotions and entice them to spend money.

I appreciate both perspectives but especially billt I need a reality check every once in a while . I get a case of “fear of missing out” every once in a while. I’m 54 and lived in Montana then moved to Idaho but have been in Idaho 30 years. Never had the need to hunt out of state other than going back to Montana with family. It’s easy to get caught up in wanting to apply in all the western states. Reality like billt shared is exactly what I need to read and usually about once a month lol. I have no need to really leave Idaho for any hunting but will also still go back to Montana. I have hounds and trap so I am already hunting almost year around. But fomo still gets me occasionally thanks for the reality check sometimes I think people get addicted to the “game” of draws and I blame or maybe credit the likes of hunting fool, go hunt , social media etc. for sucking us all into it. Like has been said if you started 20 years ago it was a good system. Maybe that’s true but mostly it’s just the commercialization of hunting. And we’re all buying it hook line and sinker. Again thanks for a little reality

 

[Wallydeuce]

I drew a good rifle antelope buck tag in 6 years. I also drew a good late rifle deer hunt in 10 years. Sitting on 13 for elk and sheep. I will probably draw elk in my lifetime but not sheep. I have already gotten my ROI if I never draw again.

You were saying...?

 

[treedagain]

I have drawn 2 and taken a couple BC bucks. Not great odds but when you do and put in the time it is worth the wait.

 

[Hawk Tuah]

You were saying...?

Haha. My comment aged well! I drew the elk sooner than I thought!

 

[ImBillT]

I appreciate both perspectives but especially billt I need a reality check every once in a while . I get a case of “fear of missing out” every once in a while. I’m 54 and lived in Montana then moved to Idaho but have been in Idaho 30 years. Never had the need to hunt out of state other than going back to Montana with family. It’s easy to get caught up in wanting to apply in all the western states. Reality like billt shared is exactly what I need to read and usually about once a month lol. I have no need to really leave Idaho for any hunting but will also still go back to Montana. I have hounds and trap so I am already hunting almost year around. But fomo still gets me occasionally thanks for the reality check sometimes I think people get addicted to the “game” of draws and I blame or maybe credit the likes of hunting fool, go hunt , social media etc. for sucking us all into it. Like has been said if you started 20 years ago it was a good system. Maybe that’s true but mostly it’s just the commercialization of hunting. And we’re all buying it hook line and sinker. Again thanks for a little reality

I’m generally a downer on NV BUT the numbers I look at are primarily NR rifle elk. Those numbers do not look good. For other species and means of take, the numbers are different.

For the easiest to draw NR rifle elk tag(bull) last year it would take 57yrs(I missed this code previously) to get each of the applicants 1 tag. 18 NRs got that tag. 9 harvested an elk. 6 of those elk had 6pts or more. Only 2 of those elk had main beams over 50”. So 2/18 guys harvested really nice bulls. 6/18 harvested 6pts. Is that a tag worth having? Yes. Is applying in NV for 57yrs to get that tag better than getting 10+ WY general tags? Not in my opinion. Do you have to choose between them? Not necessarily! Some people can afford to do both! Are there better tags in NV? Yes...it would take 200-500yrs to get one elk tag in the hands of each applicant under today’s rates depending on which of them you’re looking at. Best of luck to you. So if I don’t plan to live to be 500 I should not apply in NV? That’s not what I’m saying. If you’re applying in CO, AZ, or NM, AND in WY, MT, or ID, AND you still have money left in your application budget, then by all means, add UT or NV.

When I started applying in UT, I had about a 65% chance at drawing ONE TAG for elk, or sheep, or moose or bison, IF I APPLIED EVERY YEAR FOR TWENTY YEARS AND NOTHING CHANGED and about a 30% chance of drawing two tags(one each, two different species) over that same twenty year span. Today, despite having been in the system a while, my odds are actually worse. My budget already allowed me to apply in NM, AZ and WY, and I entered the system knowing that I had a 35% chance of applying for twenty years and never drawing a single tag.

Anyone entering NV or UT needs to A) be applying in multiple other states where they will be able to count on actually getting to go hunting, and B) understand what they’re getting into. If you’re hunting elsewhere, have extra money in your app budget, and dream of NV, then why would you not apply there?

RIFLE PRONGHORN IS NOT QUITE AS GRIM, AND STANDS TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS POPULATIONS INCREASE. That said, there are better places to apply for pronghorn if pronghorn is what you’re after.