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Housing Appreciation and Inflation: Future Outlook?

AlaskaHunter said:
Our rental here in MT is a manufactured home.
It is over 40 years old and still functional.
We like it...2 bedrooms, 2 baths, easy to clean and heat.
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Probably a Stratford. Lot of them in NW Montana. I heard they were one of the better manufactured home builders. Made in Canada. Could import Canadian lumber into the US without a tariff if it was in a manufactured home back then. They were reasonably priced homes for the quality at that time.

Home – Landing Page

stratfordbuild.com stratfordbuild.com
 
The inventory of single family homes in the US is substantially lower than pre-pandemic supply.
For example, in the Flathead Valley in Montana
In February 2020 there were 3622 homes for sale . In Feb 2021 only 1722 homes for sale.
 
Ouch! Nothing like interest rates cracking it's whip!

fortune.com

The housing market correction just took a new turn

"Builders have taken their medicine for the most part right now on pricing," says Rick Palacios Jr., head of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
fortune.com fortune.com

I've often wondered, the surplus of houses with the continuous building. Is it a mix of population increase and demolition for new build that make way for the annual quantity of new home builds?

Not based on any @wllm graphing, it seems there would be a continuous increase of abandoned / empty properties. There can not be that large a quantity of acreage to expand new home subdivisions(?).

Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, sure - I see the open land though still, that leaves homes elsewhere empty? Wow! Anyone able to explain how the attrition rate operates?
 
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BigHornRam said:
Montana market is still red hot. Over all market nationwide is trending down.

www.noradarealestate.com

Montana Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2024-2025

Explore the latest trends, prices, and forecast for the Montana housing market in 2024-2025. Gain insights into Montana's real estate market.
www.noradarealestate.com www.noradarealestate.com
Click to expand...
From the article: "This state has more elk and antelope than humans..."

Some days I wish I was a realtor so I too could just make stuff up.
 
I'm not sure about anything, and really don't know shit about real estate. That being said I can share my experience. I bought a home in Cody last November and closed early December. I paid $330k. It appraised at $334k. My neighbor's house, almost identical to mine, just went up for sale and is listed at $379k. Same realtor I used, and I know she knows what she is doing. Zillow now says my place is worth $369k. So if there was a dip in the market, the evidence I am looking at doesn't show it. Interest rates are starting to come down as well.
 
SAJ-99 said:
interested in other takes.

frontierinstitute.org

Frontier Institute Statement In Support Of SB 323

Legislation gives landowners in Montana city centers more freedom to build denser starter homes
frontierinstitute.org frontierinstitute.org
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It only makes sense to me to keep population centers as densely populated as the market and logistics allows. Fill in the gaps inside cities as a way to relieve housing shortages rather than encourage urban sprawl.
 
Gerald Martin said:
It only makes sense to me to keep population centers as densely populated as the market and logistics allows. Fill in the gaps inside cities as a way to relieve housing shortages rather than encourage urban sprawl.
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Agree. Typically zoning ordinances are local, and I didn't know there were prohibitions in some cities. My only issue is that people don't move to Montana to live in a high-rise. I think there is a misunderstanding of the current economics. Maybe it would work for Great Falls, but if you built a four-story condo in Big Sky or Bozeman for example (which has a problem of not enough affordable housing for certain income brackets), does it quickly change to being non-affordable because buyers turn the thing into an AirBNB? So is the next thing a need to limit short term rentals?
 
Good question. I know that the short term rental trend has definitely affected the housing market.

In the past, folks from other areas were buying second and third homes and renting them out either short or long term as an way to pay off the investment.

I don’t know if limiting short term rentals would actually drive down the cost of housing?

I have the ability to build an ADU on my property and plan to do so within several years as a way to increase cash flow and provide long term income through retirement.

Something like that will only help out the housing shortage since it is not going to be on a dedicated prop by itself.

The only way I would support restriction of short term rentals is if the restriction only applies to properties that are not owner occupied.
 
Gerald Martin said:
It only makes sense to me to keep population centers as densely populated as the market and logistics allows. Fill in the gaps inside cities as a way to relieve housing shortages rather than encourage urban sprawl.
Click to expand...
That's they way it works in Oregon, look at how stupid the house prices are there.

Also, if anyone tells you that habitat loss is the reason for the decrease in the elk and mule deer herds, raise the bs flag. Land use doesn't permit building outside of urban growth boundaries, and you can't split up your farm and put houses on it if it's outside of that boundary.

David
NM
 
BigHornRam said:
I think city zoning is a city issue. Not a state issue.
Click to expand...

Because I am friends with a mayor of a small Montana town, I know more about this than I would care to due to his sharing of opinions

What Bozeman needs versus what Colstrip needs are two very different things, though both are incorporated towns. This bill doesn’t really seem to take that into consideration, though I can sympathize with the frontier Institute when they say that what we’ve been doing hasn’t been working
 
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