goHunt updating draw odds!

[ImBillT]

One of my only beefs with goHunt in the past was that they did not update draw odds until just before a state app period opened. This was particularly egregious for NM because NM releases results so quickly. Looks like goHunt has updated draw odds for a few states early this year, including NM, and this makes me very happy because I do most of my app research during Christmas break while stuck at my in-laws. I assume their previous strategy was to prevent people for using a one year subscription for two years of applications. While that is understandable, I found it quite annoying. I’m very pleased that they have released updated odds for NM so early.

Since I have been critical of them on is particularly issue, I felt like they at least deserved my acknowledgment that, at least for NM, that is no longer a problem.

 

[Jseag]

One of my only beefs with goHunt in the past was that they did not update draw odds until just before a state app period opened. This was particularly egregious for NM because NM releases results so quickly. Looks like goHunt has updated draw odds for a few states early this year, including NM, and this makes me very happy because I do most of my app research during Christmas break while stuck at my in-laws. I assume their previous strategy was to prevent people for using a one year subscription for two years of applications. While that is understandable, I found it quite annoying. I’m very pleased that they have released updated odds for NM so early.

Since I have been critical of them on is particularly issue, I felt like they at least deserved my acknowledgment that, at least for NM, that is no longer a problem.

Totally agree

 

[glassy]

...I do most of my app research during Christmas break while stuck at my in-laws. I assume their previous strategy was to prevent people for using a one year subscription for two years of applications. While that is understandable, I found it quite annoying.

Just use PeakOdds. It's free (at least currently), so you don't have a subscription to worry about.

PeakOdds

peakodds.shinyapps.io

 

[th88]

Draw odds have gotten so horrible I don't even see the need for GoHunt anymore. Just spend 30 minutes on state game and fish website to see how bad your odds now are.

 

[brownbear932008]

Draw odds have gotten so horrible I don't even see the need for GoHunt anymore. Just spend 30 minutes on state game and fish website to see how bad your odds are now.

Agreed I've never used them, I dig into the data myself and it's proven to help. Wasted money!

 

[Kentucky Jack]

I've contemplated using go hunt or top rut but haven't so far. I kinda find it fun trying to figure out the draw odds using my own research but that hasn't paid off as of yet. My question is, is it really worth the extra money if they are giving you the same information they are giving everyone else. Wouldn't that hurt your chances even more during the draw?

 

[WIbiggame]

Wouldn't that hurt your chances even more during the draw?

They aren't giving you anything you won't find on your own research. Edit: neither site is predicting odds they are using the odds from the year before and saying what it took last year to draw.

Only nice thing when you are starting out about the 2 services is that all the information is in one nicely packaged spot. Spend an hour or 2 on the states website and you will be good to go on your own for future years.

They do give little tidbits about the unit that everyone is reading but nothing super earth shattering.

 

[SAJ-99]

They aren't giving you anything you won't find on your own research. Edit: neither site is predicting odds they are using the odds from the year before and saying what it took last year to draw.

Only nice thing when you are starting out about the 2 services is that all the information is in one nicely packaged spot. Spend an hour or 2 on the states website and you will be good to go on your own for future years.

They do give little tidbits about the unit that everyone is reading but nothing super earth shattering.

I think it is now pretty clear that the functionality of those platforms is getting commoditized. It's just a matter of time before one of them tries to move to a predictive model to differentiate themself.

 

[Treeshark]

Very much agree SAJ, and I think that is right around the corner. If done well, that type of tool would be really cool.

 

[WIbiggame]

@SAJ-99 I agree probably right around the corner but I don't see away it could ever really work or be remotely accurate.

Sure you can look at trends over time and assuming something will increase or decrease accordingly. However, once someone puts this prediction out people become people and unpredictable.

Way to many unknown variables to account for. I don't even AI would be able to do it. All it takes is someone with influence to say something about a place, post a hunt with prominent background and draw odds will be changed. Or a weather event happens etc I just think there's to many unknowns.

Sure they could just track the % change over time and the current acceleration or deceleration of change and give you an idea, but that is really easy to do yourself.

Predicting odds will just be another gimmick in this exploration model that I hope dies sooner than later

 

[Treeshark]

I don't even AI would be able to do it. All it takes is someone with influence to say something about a place, post a hunt with prominent background and draw odds will be changed.

I think that’s exactly how it would work, taking online discussion/viewership input and factoring that in with other data.
Similar to how Instagram can create the perfect viewing experience for @Greenhorn- they know (buy data) on what people view.

 

[WIbiggame]

I think that’s exactly how it would work, taking online discussion/viewership input and factoring that in with other data.

You are probably right. Do you think this could be even remotely accurate tho? I mean WY elk is probably getting bombarded with views searches etc etc. Because it's their app season. MT 2 years ago probably was really high when the whole outfitter tag change came up. Wouldn't it over estimate views (draw odds) for easily looked at areas and under estimate odds for more obscure less looked at areas?

Interesting to think about for sure. I wish all the sites would implode I bet if they did you would see a pretty steep decrease in points needed and point creep. Having to work a little for the information kept alot of people away I think. I know that's selfish of me but was nice when the masses didn't know there was good hunting west of the Dakota's or even out of their own state.

Edit: also wouldn't this be very costly? Would GH or TR even have the Financials to do this? Seems like it would be more suited for Google or Meta to have the information already? Could TR & GH buy the information from those sites?

 

[SAJ-99]

@SAJ-99 I agree probably right around the corner but I don't see away it could ever really work or be remotely accurate.

Sure you can look at trends over time and assuming something will increase or decrease accordingly. However, once someone puts this prediction out people become people and unpredictable.

Way to many unknown variables to account for. I don't even AI would be able to do it. All it takes is someone with influence to say something about a place, post a hunt with prominent background and draw odds will be changed. Or a weather event happens etc I just think there's to many unknowns.

Sure they could just track the % change over time and the current acceleration or deceleration of change and give you an idea, but that is really easy to do yourself.

Predicting odds will just be another gimmick in this exploration model that I hope dies sooner than later

I have done a lot of work on predictive models, so I just find it enjoyable to think about. I read the HT threads with people's guesses and listened to the most recent Elk Tag podcast. I laugh a little, cry a little, and wonder. I agree there are a lot of variables, but to your point people are always people. They are remarkably predictable. Two problems to developing the model, besides the cost of course, 1) it only works on larger samples. i.e general tag in WY but becomes much less predictable in a specific LE unit, and 2) I'm not sure it really matters (other than as a selling point). If I said WY Reg Gen will clear at 5.8pts (=/- .25) in 2024 does it affect anyones choices?

@Treeshark is pointing out where AI could aggregate a lot of data quickly possibly get a better estimate. The future is wild.

 

[rustednuts]

Predictive analytics will fail with hunting because as soon as you show better draw odds for 1 area people flock to that unit. I’d wager a lot this is what you’ll see in the WY general areas.

 

[SAJ-99]

as soon as you show better draw odds

Showing "better" odds hasn't been a problem for a long time. Predicting the next point on a trend line doesn't change the trend.

 

[WapitiBob]

Predictive odds have been available in OR for over a decade. He's pretty close.
oregontags dot com

 

[Neighwp]

Predictive analytics are very possible for most units and they'd be incredibly accurate........ you just couldn't show anyone until the draw was over or you'd skew the results and reduce your accuracy! I do it every year. It includes subscriptions to every service and listening to every available podcast to ensure I take into account where everyone is being pointed in addition to the prior years results.