Go Hunt Predictive Odds

[Kiwi]

I see Go Hunt now provide predictive draw odds alongside the historical odds.

I’m finding this new data very interesting and seems like another useful input to look at the units I’m looking to apply in that year. Of course further analysis is needed but I like to see what go hunt think in actual data.

I was surprised to see the confidence level at 96% but I guess that’s the confidence of the prediction based on the data used not the confidence that the odds themselves will be correct. It will be interesting to compare the prediction against what actually happens.

Anybody else using the predicted draw odds?

 

[CMF]

Haven't dug into it yet, but it wasn't hard to look at the draw trends and get a good idea of what was going to happen. I think some people just don't realize how it all works and assumed 100% last year means 100% this year.

 

[Mallardsx2]

How in the hell are they providing predictive draw odds when the tag quotas haven't even been released yet? lol

 

[HappyCamper]

If enough people rely on the predictive odds I’d imagine units that expected to have good odds would dip and tough to draw odds may improve. Reverse psychology to get better odds on the top units

 

[QuazyQuinton]

Obviously it all hinges on the assumption that applicant behavior is consistent enough from year to year to be modeled. Sometimes it is, especially with hunts that have been around for a long time. I was surprised that they put a percentage to their accuracy (whatever that means), but I suppose they could test the process with previous year's data.

QQ

 

[SAJ-99]

I was surprised that they put a percentage to their accuracy (whatever that means), but I suppose they could test the process with previous year's data.

96% is the confidence % for +/- two standard deviations. Do they give just one number in the results or do they give the range?

 

[Forkyfinder]

Its not hard math to calculate odds...

(Points squared +1 for your app) / (total application/points squared)

 

[Wild Bill]

How in the hell are they providing predictive draw odds when the tag quotas haven't even been released yet? lol

 

[Dave N]

 

[Stone_Ice_1]

Its not hard math to calculate odds...

(Points squared +1 for your app) / (total application/points squared)

and multiply that by the number of tags being issued. There are other things to consider like non resident tags and landowner but this would give you a pretty good idea.

 

[Forkyfinder]

and multiply that by the number of tags being issued. There are other things to consider like non resident tags and landowner but this would give you a pretty good idea.

You can see how many tags are in each bucket.

 

[tormenter]

Whom has used is successfully or unsuccessfully?

I am looking at CO deer draw stats for 2024 and my probability on a couple of units is radically different.

I don't think I am going to change my strategy, but the simple math of prior applicants and using the same tag quota numbers do not agree with their numbers.

Prior to this year I have never used it and am really curious to see whom is right or should I say more right.

 

[BuckRut]

It will be interesting how the predictive odds line up. I wouldn't be surprised if the predictive odds are determined using very little of the information we typically use to determine our odds of drawing.

The application of high level statistics does not rely on an expertise or expert knowledge of the subject matter. Trends are trends and with enough data and the proper analysis of the data you can predict things fairly well that you may not have any firsthand knowledge of the process.