Fixing social security

[VikingsGuy]

Quit assigning homework Kingsfield...

I view it as raising the bar for repetitive low effort posts . . . Think of it as a HT version of "kill a doe to earn a buck" rather than an extension of Paper Chase

 

[noharleyyet]

Stating the obvious is low effort by definition...

 

[BigHornRam]

If you are going to keep spouting random anecdotes, at least do us the courtesy of generate some great supporting charts and spreadsheets for each one like @AvidIndoorsman and @SAJ-99 do.

Just pointing out California/Newsom failing economic policies. Does require reading to comprehend however. Hopefully other states learn from California’s mistakes. Doesn't look like you will learn.

Besides @VikingsGuy you said you were tapping out on this one.

 

[Cornbread]

Just pointing out California/Newsom failing economic policies. Does require reading to comprehend however. Hopefully other states learn from California’s mistakes. Doesn't look like you will learn.

Besides @VikingsGuy you said you were tapping out on this one.

I saw a few pages back how one post stated that people werent moving out of CA because taxes were similar to their home state. Those were just the explicit taxes. How about all the implicit/imbedded taxes on businesses and all the ridiculous regulations that eventually flow through to product and services prices as businesses pass on those costs to consumers? This is the "Deadweight Loss" of govt. they add absolutely no value. There is no accountability. These programs are to buy votes.

SSI may "technically" be separate from SS, but it all comes from the same pocket. You will pay for all these illegal aliens that don't work as responsible contributors to our country but are here to suck down handouts and free healthcare and have more babies to do the same and gain citizenship. You can pine all you want about how the system is stable but 5-10 years from now when we have a debt crisis we will all pay for Vikinguy"s failed analysis. I liken it to the World's Smartest Man syndrome. People think they all got it figured out. You can't run a open borders policy and have a welfare state. Period.

 

[Cornbread]

It's going to die quicker with all the illegals being allowed in. The government is giving them social security numbers and they are eligible if "paroled" into the country which the government has done for tens of millions of people in the last two years alone.

The same magical words they use to get in are the same magical words (human trafficking) that qualify them for SSI.

Social Security won't last ten more years as they predict, it will be lucky to last 5.

View attachment 322471

Agreed on your assessment. I tell people to look for the warning signs. When people get into debt troubles, they first start running up the credit cards, then they have a yards sale, then the car gets repossessed, then they get evicted. Both these parties have run up the debt levels. I'll vote for Trump, but I don't see him as the be all end all. The American people have a huge problem that I believe can only be solved by either shutting down the govt or let the markets impose discipline through a debt crisis that forces pain and tough decisions to be made. Printing money will continue, and it wwill take time for it to flow through the inflation numbers, but this stuff builds over time.

 

[longbow51]

If you are over 50 and not very productive you are a drag on our systems. If you are 25 and would rather buy a boat than have kids then you aren’t helping. Immigration status doesn’t really play into the math.

As an unproductive person I sure seem to be paying a shit ton of taxes, both on regular investment income, and long-term capital gains. Most investments bought with after-tax dollars.

 

[Straight Arrow]

People think they all got it figured out.

Yes, but obviously people don't fully understand personal debt versus national debt, role and complexity of "government", nor economics at a micro or macro level. This thread is replete with the absurdity of silly obviousness.
Let's get back to hunting, public lands, public access, wildlife and related topics ... topics more akin to the wheelhouse of Hunt Talk people.

 

[Cornbread]

Yes, but obviously people don't fully understand personal debt versus national debt, role and complexity of "government", nor economics at a micro or macro level. This thread is replete with the absurdity of silly obviousness.
Let's get back to hunting, public lands, public access, wildlife and related topics ... topics more akin to the wheelhouse of Hunt Talk people.

Fully agreed about the many not understanding economics. Nevertheless, the thread was started as Fixing Social Security. I didn't start it, but I am a pension asset/liability expert as a professional in the investment business at a major investment manager for 35 years. I also learned a lot form from work collegues that were actuaries. My best friend, who was a pension and health actuary, with 35 years experience at a major actuarial consulting firm died last June. Just sayin'.

 

[one ate E grain]

Forgive me for not reading all 747 posts that preceded my comment.
It's tax time. I give all my stuff to the CPA way early. I have a business and investments. Might be typical here. I also read over the tax forms my CPA prepares, figuring the more I understand the more able I am to ask knowledgeable questions and better give all needed paperwork etc.

Without even trying I get a huge number of breaks on taxes. I stay away from any gray areas. All stuff for my business, 20% on profits as a sole prop, credit for the kids college, health care valued at $37 thousand tax free, over $13K deduction for IRA and if I wanted to get a SEP I could take even more, capital gains is very low I think nothing until 90 thousand then 10% nothing for SS.

I end up with a pretty small tax bill, and by far my unrealized income far outpaces what I pay taxes on. Investments and house aren't even taxed unless I sell and spend.

We need to pay taxes and pay off the debt. Bunch of crazy drug addicts in our cities living on the streets combined with simple poor people. No way our nation should have debt. No way we should have unsafe cities with thieves and feces. We need cops and nut houses for the crazies. Our govt gives tons of money to NGOs that we could do cheaper.

End of rant.

 

[SAJ-99]

What do you mean "capital gains is very low"? It's 20% Fed, MT almost 7%. 27% on an investment bought with after-tax dollars is not "very low". And, if you sell anything other than a shack in MT, you are at the max rate. How do you get it "very low"? I can refile. Serious about this.

 

[Straight Arrow]

I am a pension asset/liability expert as a professional in the investment business at a major investment manager for 35 years. I also learned a lot form from work collegues that were actuaries. My best friend, who was a pension and health actuary, with 35 years experience at a major actuarial consulting firm died last June. Just sayin'.

I understand and feel pretty sure you could advise me competently well regarding assett management and investing wisely.
However, regarding personal debt versus national debt, role and complexity of "government", and national economics at a micro or macro levels ... my perspective is that it's as far out of your wheelhouse as it is mine. No disrespect meant. "Just sayin'.

 

[Cornbread]

I understand and feel pretty sure you could advise me competently well regarding assett management and investing wisely.
However, regarding personal debt versus national debt, role and complexity of "government", and national economics at a micro or macro levels ... my perspective is that it's as far out of your wheelhouse as it is mine. No disrespect meant. "Just sayin'.

I have a Ph.D. in economics and finance, and have taught at 1 university and 2 colleges. Just sayin'. And I'm a CFA.

 

[gouch]

Wow, 38 pages! Still no solution. I think if we get to 40 pages of brainstorming on a hunting forum and the Social Security problem still isn't resolved, we are just going to have to admit that fixing Social Security is an insurmountable problem.

 

[Straight Arrow]

I have a Ph.D. in economics and finance, and have taught at 1 university and 2 colleges. Just sayin'. And I'm a CFA.

That is an impressive resume, to be admired and applauded. 'Still uncertain of expertise with regard to topic(s).

For me, two college degrees (BS, MS), US Army War College graduate ... 'been to war twice and have attended many rodeos ... but still ignorant and inept regarding the complexities and potential solutions for the topic at hand.

 

[MTGomer]

I have a Ph.D. in economics and finance, and have taught at 1 university and 2 colleges. Just sayin'. And I'm a CFA.

So.. can you beat the market index or nah?

 

[Cornbread]

So.. can you beat the market index or nah?

I was a Lipper 4 & 5 star manager. Just sayin'

Do you mean beat the index in absolute return, or on a risk-adjusted basis? If you beat the index, you beat it by taking on more risk (in general). When the market is going up, risk pays. If stocks have gone up a lot and are very expensive, it pays to move into an index. You are in essence, reducing risk, even though you are still exposed to stocks. Follow?

 

[D_Walt]

Solution: collect more, pay less. Problem solved.

NM draw results on Wednesday. I’m hoping for some tag welfare

 

[Cornbread]

That is an impressive resume, to be admired and applauded. 'Still uncertain of expertise with regard to topic(s).

For me, two college degrees (BS, MS), US Army War College graduate ... 'been to war twice and have attended many rodeos ... but still ignorant and inept regarding the complexities and potential solutions for the topic at hand.

The numbers are the numbers. Read my previous posts. Im just giving you the unbiased. My expertise was pensions, & asset liability management for financial institutions. I would know absolutely zilch about fighting a war. My hats off to ya. Im not trying to impress anybody, just stating my experience, period. Take it or leave it. I'm not the schmuck on the street that just has an opinion. There are tons of misconceptions by the public, much of it spread by politicians with a vested interest in getting re-elected. Social security is just another form of pension. And as I stated, I had an actuarial buddy (an FSA) that I relied on also with my experience.

Just read through all the comments on this thread I posted. I get totally confused where some on here get their conclusions. For example, the rich need to pay more. THEY ALREADY ARE PAYING CONSIDERABLY!! And, their benefits are capped. It is the shear volume of people collecting SS, Medicare, SSI, Medicaid. On SS, they are getting back 2-3 times what their employer, themselves, "imputted interest" than what they put in. DO I HAVE TO SCREAM!!!! LOLOLOL. Mortality risk elimination is highly valuable, inflation risk elimination is highly valuable.

Get a spreadsheet, go get you and your employer annual contributions over your career from the SS site. increase them each year on a cumulative basis at the 1-yr T-Bill rate. See what it grew to when you retired. Then check to see what kind of payment you'd get for you and your wife for the rest of your lives (it's called a fixed annuity). Insurance companies do this when a pension plan is shut down. Simple math.

Keep in mind, there were people gaming the system, where they had the wife (who worked) continued to draw on the hubby's SS, let her SS grow until age 70, then started collecting on hers. Do you think any private insurance company would let you do that? Just sayin'.

 

[Cornbread]

Wow, 38 pages! Still no solution. I think if we get to 40 pages of brainstorming on a hunting forum and the Social Security problem still isn't resolved, we are just going to have to admit that fixing Social Security is an insurmountable problem.

BINGO! Til the govt collapses. Then, everybody will be walking around confused, and saying "How did this happen????" Duh.

Give the man a Cupey doll!

 

[Cornbread]

OK, here's a question for everybody:
How would you fully hedge inflation risk imbedded in Social Security?
How would you fully hedge mortality Risk imbedded in Social Security??