Fixing social security

[BigHornRam]

His proposed spending raises their debt by 0.4% hardly a needle mover.

Losing jobs and significant taxpayers. He should be reducing debt, not increasing it.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I don't disagree with that, but folks want to act like a state with 40 Million people can be run like Mayberry.

A city like LA can't exist with everyone having leach fields, there own private drives, no public transit, yada yada yada

Seems like 95% of the "liberal" policies people complain about are literally just the necessary features of a densely populated area.

I agree with that point - hence the AND.

Also, while CA is clearly different than Mayberry and as such will need to make different choices, that doesn't necessarily mean that the choices they are making today are good for CA.

 

[BigHornRam]

I don't think Montana can go bragging about its fiscal situation. Its funded status is middle of the pack. Every state has the same problem to varying degrees. The pensions are in the same situation as SS. The bigger problem remains healthcare cost. I also note that the author of the Hoover article didn't have any suggestions on solutions, just "no more debt". That always sounds so easy. I hope he doesn't tear a rotator cuff patting himself on the back.

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2019 your most recent data?

 

[406dn]

I don't believe $250k to $350k pensions, but based on the houses they were buying pre covid, it is comfortable. People can move away from high tax states, that's human nature. Going to be a big problem going forward however. I've heard Kentucky is a fiscal train wreck. Plenty of other states are as well.

You or I can assume the reason why they moved from California to Montana. It might only be for tax reasons, or it might only be for outdoor recreation reasons. It might be some combination. It is speculation.

When I moved west many years ago, it came down to Wyoming or Montana. I chose Montana, and the state taxes weren't considered, at all. I preferred Montana for several other reasons.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I don't think Montana can go bragging about its fiscal situation. Its funded status is middle of the pack. Every state has the same problem to varying degrees. The pensions are in the same situation as SS. The bigger problem remains healthcare cost. I also note that the author of the Hoover article didn't have any suggestions on solutions, just "no more debt". That always sounds so easy. I hope he doesn't tear a rotator cuff patting himself on the back.

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CA, MA, NY & MN send billions to MT, and yet MT claims individualistic success basis their bootstraps.

 

[Cornbread]

The Bitterroot is a popular place for retired California firemen with nice pensions. Interesting that most of them leave high tax states like California and New York once they retire, instead of continuing to pay taxes and support businesses in the state they earned a living in. That ponzi scheme won't end well either. California, Illinois, and New York are in serious financial trouble.

How about that BigHorn! The Penna & New York retirees move to Florida and condos to rent out, and pay not state income tax. But they still maintain a house for 5.5 mos up in their "favorite" state. They want Biden in for another 4 years so he can give a handout to these states to filter money to the union pension plans that are way underfunded. These illegal aliens will be voting, I guarantee you. And the republicans will do NOTHING.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Losing jobs and significant taxpayers. He should be reducing debt, not increasing it.

He should be finding a way to make working class housing affordable.

Who’s Leaving California—and Who’s Moving In?

The primary driver of California's population loss over the past few years has been residents moving to other states. We examine the latest demographic data for those moving out of and into our state and discuss factors that underlie these decisions.

www.ppic.org

 

[406dn]

How about that BigHorn! The Penna & New York retirees move to Florida and condos to rent out, and pay not state income tax. But they still maintain a house for 5.5 mos up in their "favorite" state. They want Biden in for another 4 years so he can give a handout to these states to filter money to the union pension plans that are way underfunded. These illegal aliens will be voting, I guarantee you. And the republicans will do NOTHING.

Did you get this data from the same source that pegs prison guard pensions at $250k/year?

 

[BigHornRam]

You or I can assume the reason why they moved from California to Montana. It might only be for tax reasons, or it might only be for outdoor recreation reasons. It might be some combination. It is speculation.

When I moved west many years ago, it came down to Wyoming or Montana. I chose Montana, and the state taxes weren't considered, at all. I preferred Montana for several other reasons.

A lot of them already had friends and family that moved here previously. They come to visit and it's an easy decision. Lower cost of living, less crowded, and less crime. With a good pension and empty nest, no need to worry about good paying jobs and schools.

 

[SAJ-99]

2019 your most recent data?

Sorry, they only do it every 10yrs apparently.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Losing jobs and significant taxpayers. He should be reducing debt, not increasing it.

I actually paid the highest income taxes while living in Montana, Montana chooses to place a much higher burden on lower income individuals... eg retirees than other states.

Eg. of someone making 70k

At the end of the day the delta is only ~$1000, state income taxes aren't a big factor for me when planning on where to live.

 

[VikingsGuy]

A lot of them already had friends and family that moved here previously. They come to visit and it's an easy decision. Lower cost of living, less crowded, and less crime. With a good pension and empty nest, no need to worry about good paying jobs and schools.

The - nice to retire to for low/no tax, but not good enough to have a career and raise a family - scenario is a tricky needle to thread. Those "tax asylum" folks raise property (and other) prices for locals and typically fail to support tax system sufficient to support the day-to-day residents of the relevant state. AZ struggled for years with this scenario.

 

[406dn]

He should be finding a way to make working class housing affordable.

Who’s Leaving California—and Who’s Moving In?

The primary driver of California's population loss over the past few years has been residents moving to other states. We examine the latest demographic data for those moving out of and into our state and discuss factors that underlie these decisions.

www.ppic.org

Just a anecdotal piece of data. Many years ago now, the refinery where I worked decided that all of the employees should receive firefighting training for refinery fires. I was in one of the first groups to go, before the company decided it wasn't worth the cost.

Anyway I met a guy from a Mobil refinery in the LA area. We got to talking and somehow our commute times came up. Mine was about 15 minutes, his was roughly 90 minutes each way. I asked him why he was driving 90 miles each way to his job. He said housing was too expensive closer to work, so he lived where he could afford a home.

 

[BigHornRam]

How about that BigHorn! The Penna & New York retirees move to Florida and condos to rent out, and pay not state income tax. But they still maintain a house for 5.5 mos up in their "favorite" state. They want Biden in for another 4 years so he can give a handout to these states to filter money to the union pension plans that are way underfunded. These illegal aliens will be voting, I guarantee you. And the republicans will do NOTHING.

My liberal parents changed their residency to Florida after retiring with state of Wisconsin pensions. Happens a lot.

 

[406dn]

I'd say the number one reason retirees move to Florida, or Arizona, is to escape winter. The other reasons are ancillary, imo.

 

[BigHornRam]

I actually paid the highest income taxes while living in Montana, Montana chooses to place a much higher burden on lower income individuals... aka retirees than other states.

Eg. of someone making 70k

At the end of the day the delta is only ~$1000, state income taxes aren't a big factor for me when planning on where to live.

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That's why I'm moving to Wyoming

 

[Cornbread]

I don't believe $250k to $350k pensions, but based on the houses they were buying pre covid, it is comfortable. People can move away from high tax states, that's human nature. Going to be a big problem going forward however. I've heard Kentucky is a fiscal train wreck. Plenty of other states are as well.

You are naive as hell. People really don't know the reall story on social security, medicare, and state & local govt retirement benefits. The retirement medical care is EXPENSIVE. A friend who was a fireman in Pittsburgh told me "You think I got good healthcare, the teachers NEVER pay a deductible or copay!!". Maybe not every prison guard in Calif, but how about an average pension of $200K??? Go do some searches on google. I recall seeing a woman that retired with 30 years in the prison system and got a pension of $300K.

People just cant conceptualize the cost of $300,000 pension. What is the present value of something like that??? Well here ya go. 30-year U.S Treasury yields are at 4.5% now. Take the iverse of that (1/.045) and that is 22.22 times. $300,000 times 22.22 = $6,666,666. So her pension is equivalent to you having $6.7 mil in your 401k!!!! Does it now hit ya? Duh! Add in another $500k-$1 mil for the healthcare. Remember, they have no mortality risk whatsoever with a pension. That is worth a considerable too. Mortality risk is "that you outlive your assets". Are you the world's smartest investment manager??? Pension (no mortality risk) or 401K (you take the mortality risk)???? Which would you take????

Now do you see? What is the pre-tax salary you need in aftertax takehome pay to accumulate $7-9 million for your pension over a 30 year period??? Where's the genius on here with the simplistic 30 year app to calculate that??? With not a volatile stock market!

 

[BigHornRam]

I'd say the number one reason retirees move to Florida, or Arizona, is to escape winter. The other reasons are ancillary, imo.

Once the snowbirds get there, they quickly change their residency, however.

 

[Cornbread]

I'd say the number one reason retirees move to Florida, or Arizona, is to escape winter. The other reasons are ancillary, imo.

You are full of it.

 

[406dn]

You are full of it.

you would know.