Evaluate the ROI on Education

[JAG]

The parents had 20 years to save for college. Could have slowly put away some cash for the kid and invested in to earn the 6.87% and make college a whole lot cheaper.

The reason the cost of college is so high is because the Federal government reduced/eliminated a lot of funding to universities starting in the 80's. The onus was then on the states. We can see how that genius idea worked out.

An unfortunate consequence of the Government's reducing/eliminating funds and cancelling student loans (good for the debtors) is that the value of college education is devalued and spikes inflation (bad for everyone).

This is one of the other factors driving my interest in the need to separate bad assumptions and take a closer/careful look at the cost of college.

 

[cwitherow]

Some of the better off people I know are teachers. They don't work summers you know--teaching that is. They often work something else that can be lucrative in the summers. I've seen everything from landscaping to painting to insurance adjusting to a construction crew/remodling/home building. But yea going to school at a MN state school to be a teacher is questionable given the high cost of state schools in MN. Unless your parents or single parent doesn't make much and they qualify for free tuition. Room and board still aint cheap.

I don't know of many teachers who aren't double income families either. It's a good gig in that situation for the right person. Most of the teachers families I know growing up did well enough to have a 2nd lake place somewhere, or retired to one.

I would be interested in looking at the financial situation of teachers at different points in their career, say me (32 years old) vs a recent retiree. Looking at the cost of tuition vs salary comparison. There is no chance in hell I'll ever be able to own a lake place, but I don't know any teacher who got into the profession and is suddenly shocked at the paycheck. If you have a love or passion for what you do, the money becomes important. THAT being said, I sure did pick some expensive hobbies!

 

[brymoore]

My college in the early 90s was $4,500 a year.

MBA in 97. The annual raise I received was equal to the total cost of the MBA (2/3rds paid by the company). Great time and effort return for me.

I double checked my daughter’s tuition costs at University of Idaho. Google says average cost $12k annually. Wife and I had a discussion of the cost of her college and the calculated cost was $10k. My daughter gets a couple scholarships to reduce the costs for us.

 

[SAJ-99]

An unfortunate consequence of the Government's reducing/eliminating funds and cancelling student loans (good for the debtors) is that the value of college education is devalued and spikes inflation (bad for everyone).

This is one of the other factors driving my interest in the need to separate bad assumptions and take a closer/careful look at the cost of college.

Don’t worry, the plan is to do the same K-12 education. The good news is Artificial intelligence will give the ability to lift even the dumbest American to mediocre. Unfortunately the pay will be a slave wage.

 

[Irrelevant]

The good news is Artificial intelligence will give the ability to lift even the dumbest American to mediocre.

100% disagree. I see zero evidence to support this line of reasoning. AI at least for the moment, and moderately foreseeable future, still requires you to know what you're after and how to interface with it. The dumbest American's are incapable of checking those two boxes. It will lift everyone but them.

We will get more done, but it will still be the few how can best interface with it, doing the most work.

But AI will be teaching our kids kids, and maybe it'll do a better job.

 

[SAJ-99]

100% disagree. I see zero evidence to support this line of reasoning. AI at least for the moment, and moderately foreseeable future, still requires you to know what you're after and how to interface with it. The dumbest American's are incapable of checking those two boxes. It will lift everyone but them.

We will get more done, but it will still be the few how can best interface with it, doing the most work.

But AI will be teaching our kids kids, and maybe it'll do a better job.

Ok, ok, a bit of hyperbole, I will admit. The dumbest will remain the dumbest, but mostly because they chose to. So ‘Merica wins again I guess.

Workers with less experience gain the most from generative AI | MIT Sloan

mitsloan.mit.edu

 

[npaden]

$100 per month meal plan in 1986 seems extremely cheap. I went to college from 1986 to 1990 and it cost me between $8,000 and $12,000 per year. Only stayed in the dorm the first year so most of that does not include any room and board. Out of state private university.

Ended up with almost $20,000 in loans when I graduated and my first job (where I am now a part owner) paid around $25,000 with overtime. I do remember my starting salary was $16,800 which comes out to $8.08 an hour.

I feel like I had a great ROI on my education. I’ve contributed more to the university since I graduated than I paid in tuition.

 

[npaden]

Just thought of another intangible. College is where I met my future spouse. Not sure what the chances of that happening at trade school is, but probably not quite as good.

 

[brymoore]

Just thought of another intangible. College is where I met my future spouse.

Me too!

 

[Fire_9]

Just thought of another intangible. College is where I met my future spouse. Not sure what the chances of that happening at trade school is, but probably not quite as good.

Does that up the ROI or bring it down? I'm sure answers will vary wildly on that one lol

 

[BigHornRam]

Does that up the ROI or bring it down? I'm sure answers will vary wildly on that one lol

I married above my pay grade.

 

[rjthehunter]

I married above my pay grade.

Good investment then

 

[JAG]

I've seen a few comments about how the cost of college many years ago was cheap and how it paid off. Is that different today?

• College costs over time.

For the more economically minded folks, is it fair to compare the disproportionate annual increase of college costs with the yearly inflation increase? Is that a problem with such complexity where more context helps?

• College tuition inflation averaged 3.63% annually from 2010-2011 to 2022-2023.
• The cost of tuition at public 4-year institutions increased 36.7% from 2010 to 2023.
• After adjusting for currency inflation, college tuition has increased 197.4% since 1963.
• The most extreme decade for tuition inflation was the 1980s, when tuition prices increased 9.16%.

 

[SAJ-99]

I've seen a few comments about how the cost of college many years ago was cheap and how it paid off. Is that different today?

• College costs over time.

For the more economically minded folks, is it fair to compare the disproportionate annual increase of college costs with the yearly inflation increase? Is that a problem with such complexity where more context helps?

• College tuition inflation averaged 3.63% annually from 2010-2011 to 2022-2023.
• The cost of tuition at public 4-year institutions increased 36.7% from 2010 to 2023.
• After adjusting for currency inflation, college tuition has increased 197.4% since 1963.
• The most extreme decade for tuition inflation was the 1980s, when tuition prices increased 9.16%.

It is because of cuts to Federal funding for higher education under Reagan (not research grants that Trump is cutting now). States took up the funding shortfall until the GFC in 2008. They have been struggling with their budgets since, so they cut more (or increase state taxes). The cuts to government funding of universities means the universities have had to increase prices for the individual.

In short, society is prioritizing what its spends money on, and higher education is getting less. When you look at the inflation chart of cost of college, what you are looking at is the cost of the education for the individual. What it doesn't show is the cost to educate that individual, which has tracked at about the same rate as overall inflation. You can see that in BLS data for post secondary teachers.

 

[Bonasababy]

I would be interested in looking at the financial situation of teachers at different points in their career, say me (32 years old) vs a recent retiree. Looking at the cost of tuition vs salary comparison. There is no chance in hell I'll ever be able to own a lake place, but I don't know any teacher who got into the profession and is suddenly shocked at the paycheck. If you have a love or passion for what you do, the money becomes important. THAT being said, I sure did pick some expensive hobbies!

Your right, I doubt teachers today are as well off, the teachers I was talking about retired in the 90s into early 2000s. Recreational real estate has jumped higher since then. We pay teachers pretty well as they get tenure but not that well.

 

[JAG]

you are looking at is the cost of the education for the individual. What it doesn't show is the cost to educate that individual, which has tracked at about the same rate as overall inflation.

Very nice!

 

[Bonasababy]

It is because of cuts to Federal funding for higher education under Reagan (not research grants that Trump is cutting now). States took up the funding shortfall until the GFC in 2008. They have been struggling with their budgets since, so they cut more (or increase state taxes). The cuts to government funding of universities means the universities have had to increase prices for the individual.

In short, society is prioritizing what its spends money on, and higher education is getting less. When you look at the inflation chart of cost of college, what you are looking at is the cost of the education for the individual. What it doesn't show is the cost to educate that individual, which has tracked at about the same rate as overall inflation. You can see that in BLS data for post secondary teachers.

I would not say it's society as much as politicians, they find it easy to cut spending and claim credit while shoving the cost onto someone else...kids and their parents, local school districts at the state level...it's easy because they can deflect blame and point fingers away from themselves....and voters tend not to correct them.

 

[JAG]

Lots of interesting graphs here showing trends in funding for colleges:
https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/resear...in-federal-and-state-higher-education-funding

Figure 10 is interesting since it shows a lower variance in 'net tuition and fee' amount than the variances of state and private support. Federal budgets vary some but not as much.

 

[Irrelevant]

As a glass-half-empty kind of guy, I think there will be very few worthy careers down the college spectrum. I have oversized fears for what AI will do/create to our workforce and society in general. I can see most white-collar jobs being replaced in short order, most of my work included. But the last thing AI is going to be able to do, are the trades. Sure we'll move towards more automation and that automation will likely have some AI component, but there's so much variability, there are so many "answers", that I think it'll be tough to replicate the value humans play. One of my kids is clearly a trades person and the other is an engineer. So the ROI just, is what it is, for the college bound one. As others have said, you just need to check that box, and if you're smart find a spouse while you're there.

There is some value in pointless major's as well, but the value is all for selfish reasons. Once you start down the road of life, and by that I mean married with kids, there is very little time to pursue general knowledge. IMO College is the last or only great space/place/time in your life to pursue real, deep, knowledge simply for the sake of knowing it.

 

[TOGIE]

As a glass-half-empty kind of guy, I think there will be very few worthy careers down the college spectrum. I have oversized fears for what AI will do/create to our workforce and society in general. I can see most white-collar jobs being replaced in short order, most of my work included. But the last thing AI is going to be able to do, are the trades. Sure we'll move towards more automation and that automation will likely have some AI component, but there's so much variability, there are so many "answers", that I think it'll be tough to replicate the value humans play. One of my kids is clearly a trades person and the other is an engineer. So the ROI just, is what it is, for the college bound one. As others have said, you just need to check that box, and if you're smart find a spouse while you're there.

There is some value in pointless major's as well, but the value is all for selfish reasons. Once you start down the road of life, and by that I mean married with kids, there is very little time to pursue general knowledge. IMO College is the last or only great space/place/time in your life to pursue real, deep, knowledge simply for the sake of knowing it.

I think in the metaphysical sense humankind will ultimately reject the AI takeover depending on how it goes. Maybe by reversal only, who knows. But I think we will reject it.

There could be no greater loss than the loss of purpose, which AI taken to its ultimate and perfect end would likely do.

I like to think AI will more likely integrate itself into the world more like Excel spreadsheets have - a tool that has allowed more people to do more things in complexity, scale, and pace that has never been seen before. I dunno if white collar jobs were lost because of it. Could be wrong. Or, perhaps, imagine the characters Ash and Bishop in their respective sci-fi films as how AI becomes integrated into the world.

Work and purpose is too integral to humanity. If we lose too much of that we will course correct or reevaluate. Or maybe I vastly misunderstand what "work" could look like in 50, 100, or 200 years.

Or, our ultimate end will be Wall-E or The Matrix. Luckily I'll be dead, I think.