Drawing Odds Data question.

[Bluejacket19]

Good afternoon HT,

I've been lurking for a while and trying to absorb some information. I'm going to make my first trip out west for hunting this year. Aiming for Wyoming Antelope this year to see how it goes.

I have a few questions that if anyone can point me in the right direction or answer I would be grateful.

I'm initially looking at zones 21 or 25 as first choice zones but the thing that strikes me as odd is that in the picture below you see 2019 special draw zone 21. 0 first choice applicants.



Then on Toprut the data says there were 39 first choice applicants for zone 21 type 1 tags. The quota matches but the applicants don't.




The same story holds true for the regular draw it's just not as pronounced. I see this in a lot of zones pretty consistently.



Toprut has 21 listed as 100% draw in the special and ~ 21 % in the regular but the numbers don't reflect the data from WG&F. Am I missing something about the drawing process that leads to the discrepancy? Does it even matter? Would anyone with Gohunt Insider be able to check the numbers and see if it's just a Toprut issue?
If I had to hazard a guess I would say that Toprut is using tags issued as an equivalent to first choice because I don't see anything about 2nd or 3rd choice in their data.

Thanks for taking the time to read if you made it this far. I appreciate it, and thank you guys for the all the help you provide to people on this site.

 

[NEWHunter]

Trust the numbers from Game & Fish.

 

[FranklinME]

Trust the WYGF data I always find it accurate with few exceptions. A quick look shows 85.!7 percent choice applicants people might be putting in with a party app hence the reason for 39 tags issued. If one draws in the party they all draw. Example if the 37th application is a party application with thee people they issue two extra tags. I hope that makes sense.

 

[FranklinME]

I could be wrong but the Wy guys will chime in. I'm heavily medicated

 

[ClearCreek]

Go with the WY G&F data.

ClearCreek

 

[toprut]

If it were me, I would email Toprut directly with your inquiry. They may be able to add something useful.

 

[Deleted member 38069]

Welcome aboard!

 

[Walkathon]

Edit: You are looking at the random draw on the WY G&F website. Look at the Preference Point drawing info.

 

[WapitiBob]

That would make a difference.
When looking for successful applicants in Toprut, click the “more” link next to the “minimum points to draw” and they show the actual number of successful apps and their point levels. For 21 special there were 66 1st choice licenses issued; all that applied. As such , there were zero 1st choice apps moving to the random special for area 21, as shown in the random special demand report.

If you look closer and read the description for the graph you cited, there were 39 “distinct” applications for 21 special ie; a party app counted as 1 app.

 

[Bluejacket19]

Edit: You are looking at the random draw on the WY G&F website. Look at the Preference Point drawing info.

I looked at both but it was my understanding that the tags available in the PP drawing are not the same tags that are in the random draw?

Edit* Walkathon was right, I knew I was missing something, Toprut is combining the first choice of the preference point with the first choice of the random draw to get the total number and I was just missing it. It all makes sense now.

 

[Bluejacket19]

Thanks to everyone who gave me some feedback here. I appreciate taking the time to help out someone new. I'll look to pay it forward when I can.
Another question I had is how people feel about the special draw. I spoke with a coworker of mine who said he drew a tag last year and went out had to pay about a $600 trespass fee for access to a sizable chunk of land. Is that a standard trespass fee? That to me makes the special draw a much better option to draw a zone with more accessible public hunting. But again i really have no idea what I'm talking about.

Anyways, thanks again folks.

 

[Walkathon]

I looked at both but it was my understanding that the tags available in the PP drawing are not the same tags that are in the random draw?

@WapitiBob Can explain this better than I can. You will either apply for the Special or the Regular full price drawing if you are trying to get the type-1 tag. You can look a the WYGF site under the Preference Point drawing of either to see how many people, with how many points applied as a first choice for a given unit. The screen shots you posted are the random portion of the regular and special drawings. Take the standard drawing for instance. There were 204 tags available in the PP drawing (75%) and 68 tags in the random drawing (25%). 360 people applied as a first choice with 0 points and didn't get a tag in the PP drawing. They, along with 21 other people who applied for 21 as a first choice with less than 1 point fell into the random portion of the drawing with (381 people). These people who applied for the tag as a first choice had a chance for the 68 tags available. This is what is shown in your screen shot.

Sounds like Toprut breaks this down further, but I don't have Toprut so I'm not sure how it works. WB- please correct my post if I have not explained this correctly.

 

[Bluejacket19]

@WapitiBob Can explain this better than I can. You will either apply for the Special or the Regular full price drawing if you are trying to get the type-1 tag. You can look a the WYGF site under the Preference Point drawing of either to see how many people, with how many points applied as a first choice for a given unit. The screen shots you posted are the random portion of the regular and special drawings. Take the standard drawing for instance. There were 204 tags available in the PP drawing (75%) and 68 tags in the random drawing (25%). 360 people applied with 0 points and didn't get a tag in the PP drawing. They, along with 21 other people with less than 1 point fell into the random portion of the drawing with (381 people). These people who applied for the tag as a first choice had a chance for the 68 tags available. This is what is shown in your screen shot.

Sounds like Toprut breaks this down further, but I don't have Toprut so I'm not sure how it works. WB- please correct my post if I have not explained this correctly.

Yupp you are correct, i started looking at it again after I read your reply to see what you were saying. i edited my comment but not quickly enough.

 

[Blackcats06]

Thanks to everyone who gave me some feedback here. I appreciate taking the time to help out someone new. I'll look to pay it forward when I can.
Another question I had is how people feel about the special draw. I spoke with a coworker of mine who said he drew a tag last year and went out had to pay about a $600 trespass fee for access to a sizable chunk of land. Is that a standard trespass fee? That to me makes the special draw a much better option to draw a zone with more accessible public hunting. But again i really have no idea what I'm talking about.

Anyways, thanks again folks.

The special draw doesn't always give you better odds. As for a trespass fee that's up to you. I will not pay a trespass fee, I will wait to draw a unit that has good enough public access or go into a hunt with little public knowing I may struggle.