Double skunked this year

[thatsjet]

I put in for long shots for both deer and Elk here in Western Oregon units, Saddle Mountain and Trask... no surprise but drew nuttin. Points it is!

I'll be hunting general season and thinking of trying my hand at archery to get a better chance earlier in the season.

 

[rtraverdavis]

@thatsjet You’ve got results already? All my apps still say “active.”

 

[thatsjet]

Hrmm... now that you mention it mine still say "Active" as well and no preference points showing. I thought the draw results were supposed to be posted 6/2?

 

[thatsjet]

DERP!!! June 20, not June 2. I guess I still have a chance!

 

[rtraverdavis]

June 20th is the published projected release date. Sounds like you still have a shot.

 

[rtraverdavis]

You must have posted right when I was typing. But your op got my blood flowing for a minute.

 

[thatsjet]

June 20th is the published projected release date. Sounds like you still have a shot.

So you're saying there's a chance!!! ;-)

 

[wtrfwlhunter]

DERP!!! June 20, not June 2. I guess I still have a chance!

damnit you had me going for a second there

 

[ashersdad]

About gave me a heart attack man! Heck yeah, there’s a chance.

 

[rtraverdavis]

Hey @thatsjet, I think I finally figured out the whole seed number think that @WapitiBob has talked about on here before. You may be able to get a pretty good idea on whether you drew or not, if you were hoping for a tag in the random portion of the draw. Check it out:

How to check your controlled hunt draw results | Oregon Department of Fish & Wildlife

It's easy to check your results, and purchase your tag, on the ODFW electronic licensing system. NOTE: Once the draw results begin loading into the system, they will load one series at a time. If you want to see all of your results at once, wait until the end of the day when all the series have...

myodfw.com

My numbers are all turds...

 

[WapitiBob]

20th is a saturday so 19th maybe sooner

 

[gburk]

Hey @thatsjet, I think I finally figured out the whole seed number think that @WapitiBob has talked about on here before. You may be able to get a pretty good idea on whether you drew or not, if you were hoping for a tag in the random portion of the draw. Check it out:

How to check your controlled hunt draw results | Oregon Department of Fish & Wildlife

It's easy to check your results, and purchase your tag, on the ODFW electronic licensing system. NOTE: Once the draw results begin loading into the system, they will load one series at a time. If you want to see all of your results at once, wait until the end of the day when all the series have...

myodfw.com

My numbers are all turds...

I've never applied in OR so have no idea what i'm talking about, but I'm curious about this, i assume the "seed" is just the number to start off their software pseudo-random number generator? If that's the case you would need to have knowledge of their software to predict what pseudo-random numbers are going to come out? That seems odd. Also do they assign application numbers upon submission and tell you what they are (it sounds like it if you call em turds)? It seems to deviate significantly from other states' approaches.
That web page raises more questions than it answers... "Use with caution"?? hm sounds dangerous
@WapitiBob

 

[WapitiBob]

Oregon is the most "random" of any western draw system.
Our draw system generates your random number when you submit an application, per hunt series (WY sorts the database by id the assigns random numbers). After the app change period closes, members of the public generate a seed number, per hunt series, and the computer will go up from that number, vs other states that go up from zero. So, for our system to favor 1st time sheep applicants, as some on other forums have suggested, that app computer would need to go into the future, note the sheep seed number, come back to real time and assign the appropriate random number based on those who applied before you, and all those to apply after.

After the seed numbers are generated our new app front end populates your controlled hunt page with your random numbers, per hunt series. Knowing there are 9,999,999 possible numbers, the number of applicants, and the number of tags allotted you can guestimate if you are close enough to the seed number to get drawn before they run out of tags.
As with all draws, there are assumptions; we use last years number of applicants, and we have to assume an equal distribution of random numbers to the applicants. It's not perfect but over time it has worked better than not. I borrowed this explanation off a guy and it shows the process for our 25% random draw. If you have the points to draw in the 75% pp side, your random number won't matter but if you're in the last point pool in that 75% and there are more apps than tags, it'll come down to your position from the seed number.

 

[gburk]

Makes sense, thanks for taking the time to explain it. unique! Devils in the details for stuff like this but sounds like it oughtta work. Since a lot of buckets are empty I’d expect the rule of thumb to be overly conservative. To a degree depending on how they handle empty slots.
Good luck!