Decline of Alaska King Salmon Runs and Size Class

[AlaskaHunter]

It is clear that in general, spawning Alaska salmon are getting smaller and the declines are most stark for Chinook or King salmon.
These changes are especially pronounced in the past 15-20 years, mostly due to younger age class at spawning.
source:
https://alaskasalmonandpeople.org/topics/the-declining-size-and-age-of-salmon/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17726-z
https://www.alaskajournal.com/busin...-finds-30-year-decline-chinook-size-statewide

For the state of Alaska, the trend in spawning run size has not been good:
source: https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=hottopics.lowchinookruns_info

Low 2021 runs of King (Chinook) Salmon continues in many drainages in Alaska:
Cumulative Counts
River 2021 2020 2019
Gulkana 24 132 2,988
Nushagak 2,228 7,814 15,945
Kenai Kings restricted to catch & release,
Anchor River and Deep Creek closed to fishing by emergency order
Nushagak-Mulchatna Drainages King Salmon limits reduced by emergency order

Subsistence and personal use fishing has been closed within the Yukon River drainage (including the Tanana River drainage).

 

[338win]

I wish we would lose the collective hard on for the climate change models based on wildly varying data and focus some if that energy on our fisheries.

 

[rwc101]

Going salmon (and halibut) fishing in Alaska would be a dream come true. Tough to watch the decline.

 

[thomas89]

Alaska seems to be unfortunately catching up with the rest of the western seaboard. Runs all up and down the coast are turning to sh*t.

Just recently have they begun to allow the harvest of seals/sea lions (massive consumers of salmonids) but it may be too little too late. The resident orca population here in Washington seems to be doing poorly as well as the king is one of their primary food sources.

Pretty interesting schools of thought on the effects of dams on runs, but people aren’t likely to get rid of those in this eco-friendly age. One of the more recent things I’ve read actually traced a compound used in the making of automobile tires that was left on roads, then washed into streams that had devastating effects on salmonids.

Anyways, yes, very sad the fisheries are hurting. Interesting issue without what appears to be an easy fix.

 

[Salmonchaser]

I caught my first king out of the Kenai when I was six, 1961. Same year I pitch forked a load of kings and chum out of the Chena River into my red Ryder wagon and tried to sell them at Ft. Wainwright. MPs delivered the Captains son to the Captains wife. Been chasing the damn things from the Umpqua River to the Yukon ever since. Been quiding in Alaska for the last 20 years. In my mind it’s scary what has happened to the Kings. 10 years ago 30 fish days were common, now I’m happy if I get everyone in the boat on a fish. Been three years since I’ve actually killed one, gone to strict CandR on kings. Silvers are doing ok, Sockeye are doing great as well as pinks. Chum are in trouble. We’ve all had a part in the decline I’m worried I’ll see the end of kings in my lifetime.

 

[NECALI]

Speaking of dams and salmon runs, I believe our authorities are a huge assault on salmon in the Sacramento River here in CA. In the fall they raise the water levels from Keswick dam, which is right below Shasta Lake so the salmon can spawn. Then when the spawn is over, but before the eggs hatch they lower the levels and expose the majority of the beds resulting in dead eggs. I just don’t understand the mentality there.

 

[Salmonchaser]

Speaking of dams and salmon runs, I believe our authorities are a huge assault on salmon in the Sacramento River here in CA. In the fall they raise the water levels from Keswick dam, which is right below Shasta Lake so the salmon can spawn. Then when the spawn is over, but before the eggs hatch they lower the levels and expose the majority of the beds resulting in dead eggs. I just don’t understand the mentality there.

Our government at work I guess.

 

[Chief_Wak]

After spending some time on reading up on different threads you realize that almost everything seems to be in decline and doesn’t matter really what state and whether it’s big game small game or fish. Come to think of it from where I live really the only thing that has seemed to be booming in population the last few years is turkeys

 

[Salmonchaser]

We see more turkeys then elk in north East Oregon. Dang things are everywhere.

 

[Salmonchaser]

We now have coyotes on the Alaska peninsula, no turkey as far as I know.

 

[Panda Bear]

It is clear that in general, spawning Alaska salmon are getting smaller and the declines are most stark for Chinook or King salmon.
These changes are especially pronounced in the past 15-20 years, mostly due to younger age class at spawning.
source:
https://alaskasalmonandpeople.org/topics/the-declining-size-and-age-of-salmon/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17726-z
https://www.alaskajournal.com/busin...-finds-30-year-decline-chinook-size-statewide

For the state of Alaska, the trend in spawning run size has not been good: View attachment 187298
source: https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=hottopics.lowchinookruns_info

Low 2021 runs of King (Chinook) Salmon continues in many drainages in Alaska:
Cumulative Counts
River 2021 2020 2019
Gulkana 24 132 2,988
Nushagak 2,228 7,814 15,945
Kenai Kings restricted to catch & release,
Anchor River and Deep Creek closed to fishing by emergency order
Nushagak-Mulchatna Drainages King Salmon limits reduced by emergency order

Subsistence and personal use fishing has been closed within the Yukon River drainage (including the Tanana River drainage).

I am sorry to hear this. We have declines in several- Sockeye and Chinook Salmon, Bull Trout, Arctic char, rainbow trout --but an increase in Dolly Vardin

 

[Irrelevant]

It is clear that in general, spawning Alaska salmon are getting smaller and the declines are most stark for Chinook or King salmon.
These changes are especially pronounced in the past 15-20 years, mostly due to younger age class at spawning.
source:
https://alaskasalmonandpeople.org/topics/the-declining-size-and-age-of-salmon/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17726-z
https://www.alaskajournal.com/busin...-finds-30-year-decline-chinook-size-statewide

For the state of Alaska, the trend in spawning run size has not been good: View attachment 187298
source: https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=hottopics.lowchinookruns_info

Low 2021 runs of King (Chinook) Salmon continues in many drainages in Alaska:
Cumulative Counts
River 2021 2020 2019
Gulkana 24 132 2,988
Nushagak 2,228 7,814 15,945
Kenai Kings restricted to catch & release,
Anchor River and Deep Creek closed to fishing by emergency order
Nushagak-Mulchatna Drainages King Salmon limits reduced by emergency order

Subsistence and personal use fishing has been closed within the Yukon River drainage (including the Tanana River drainage).

I don't have nearly as much skin in the greater salmon game as a lot of people. But my love for salmon is immense. As such, I'd vote for a minimum 6 year moratorium on all salmon fishing, ocean and freshwater, commercial and recreational, tribal and non tribal. Then pay the existing ocean commercial fleet to patrol the north Pacific for compliance.

 

[OntarioHunter]

Three years ago I floated the Alagnak in Alaska for a week in August. The river was full of chum and a few late sockeye. Never caught a silver. I saw a few kings but only two real big ones. I hooked four but it was hopeless hanging onto them in waders on a river too grown in to run the banks. As soon as I saw the backing I broke off. They can survive hanging onto a hook for a few more weeks/days but not dragging thirty yards of fly line. The last one was a pretty iridescent rose coloured hen in a backwater pool with three or four black males. Took maybe ten casts to finally get her to go after it. Then she went up in the air. What a sight! I managed to turn her back twice into the still waters but then she got into the main course of the river and that was the end of it. What a memory. Breaks my heart to think my grandson will never see things like that.

 

[MTTW]

I don't have nearly as much skin in the greater salmon game as a lot of people. But my love for salmon is immense. As such, I'd vote for a minimum 6 year moratorium on all salmon fishing, ocean and freshwater, commercial and recreational, tribal and non tribal. Then pay the existing ocean commercial fleet to patrol the north Pacific for compliance.

The risk of unintended consequences is high in this scenario.
Bristol Bay has been returning in the neighborhood of 50 million Sockeye per year with a harvest of approximately 36 million per year.
36 million more fish on the spawning beds may have a detrimental effect on Kings in the long run.
Also reduced resistance to Pebble mine caused by closing fishing could be detrimental to salmon in the long run.

Reduced wild salmon production could lead to increased salmon farming which could be detrimental to salmon in the long run.
The broad brush approach tends to have more unintended consequences than other methods.
My 2 cents, now I have to go pick the net at high tide.

 

[Irrelevant]

The risk of unintended consequences is high in this scenario.
Bristol Bay has been returning in the neighborhood of 50 million Sockeye per year with a harvest of approximately 36 million per year.
36 million more fish on the spawning beds may have a detrimental effect on Kings in the long run.
Also reduced resistance to Pebble mine caused by closing fishing could be detrimental to salmon in the long run.

Reduced wild salmon production could lead to increased salmon farming which could be detrimental to salmon in the long run.
The broad brush approach tends to have more unintended consequences than other methods.
My 2 cents, now I have to go pick the net at high tide.
View attachment 187442

But is it higher than continuing to do what we're doing now?

How long before Alaska salmon are based on hatcheries?

Bristol bay is definitely a bright spot in these dark times for salmon.

 

[AlaskaHunter]

The risk of unintended consequences is high in this scenario.
Bristol Bay has been returning in the neighborhood of 50 million Sockeye per year with a harvest of approximately 36 million per year.
36 million more fish on the spawning beds may have a detrimental effect on Kings in the long run.
Also reduced resistance to Pebble mine caused by closing fishing could be detrimental to salmon in the long run.

Reduced wild salmon production could lead to increased salmon farming which could be detrimental to salmon in the long run.
The broad brush approach tends to have more unintended consequences than other methods.
My 2 cents, now I have to go pick the net at high tide.

Fish farming is illegal in Alaska. Hatchery salmon likely compete with wild salmon, with close to 6 BILLION hatchery salmon
released annually in the north Pacific.
Source: Effects of warming climate and competition in the ocean for life-histories of Pacific salmon

Most scientific studies have concluded that pink salmon may have the strongest negative effect on other salmon species via competition.
Sources:
Competition between Asian pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and Alaskan sockeye salmon (O. nerka) in the North Pacific Ocean.Fisheries Oceanography

Evidence for competitive dominance of Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) over other Salmonids in the North Pacific Ocean.

Climate and competition influence sockeye salmon population dynamics across the Northeast Pacific Ocean

 

[MTTW]

Not many hatchery fish in Bristol bay.
There doesn't have to be fish farming in Alaska in order for farmed fish to have a detrimental effect on Alaska salmon, or salmon pretty much anywhere.
I am not advocating for hatchery fish, I am saying that closing all salmon fishing because kings are down is an epic over reaction.

 

[Irrelevant]

Not many hatchery fish in Bristol bay.
There doesn't have to be fish farming in Alaska in order for farmed fish to have a detrimental effect on Alaska salmon, or salmon pretty much anywhere.
I am not advocating for hatchery fish, I am saying that closing all salmon fishing because kings are down is an epic over reaction.

If you follow salmon management from Europe, through Scandavia, to the eastern US, then the west coast, you see the exact same pattern. We take more of the resource than is sustainable and impair the habitat, then think we can replace wild fish with hatchery fish. When that fails we then switch to simply farmed fish.

History repeats itself very clearly in each case. Will AK follow suit? Well it's won't be CA overnight, but I still fear the same result, No Salmon.

 

[Irrelevant]

They are absolutely not taking more salmon in Bristol Bay than is sustainable . In fact the warming waters in the north pacific are producing more zooplankton which is what the sockeye eat . The total sockeye run has been near 50 million fish for the last 6 years, and last year was over 58 million sockeye . Bristol Bay is the largest sockeye salmon fishery in the world and the most valuable single salmon fishery in Alaska .

Your suggestion in post #12 about about a 6 year moratorium on all salmon fishing is utter stupidity .

There are 1000s of people employed in the salmon fisheries in Alaska that make all or part of their living from the salmon fisheries there . That is all supposed to come to a screeching halt because you think it's a good idea .

Fair enough, keep terminal sockeye fisheries. 1000's of AK jobs equate to how many 100,000's of salmon related jobs in the lower 48? Are we including the ones already lost? Can you tell a Redfish Lake sockeye from a Bristol bay sockeye when it's seined offshore?

 

[Gr8bawana]

I wish we would lose the collective hard on for the climate change models based on wildly varying data and focus some if that energy on our fisheries.