Covid-19 Data, Models, References - NO DISCUSSION

[LuketheDog]

This thread is like a car accident (and as productive as one)...I just have to look to see what is going on...can't look away

 

[LWC55]

Can VikingsGuy and ImBillT please pm each other and come back here and post a consensus. I'm all for polite discussion, but we don't need to see every thought each of you have on the subject. It is getting out of hand.

 

[ImBillT]

This thread is like a car accident (and as productive as one)...I just have to look to see what is going on...can't look away

I’ve never understood why people think that discussion is unproductive. Unproductive is everyone pretending to agree with everyone else.

I agree with @VikingsGuy on almost everything he says about any topic. I disagree that we need to test everyone. I don’t know why we shouldn’t discuss the pros and cons of both positions, and why one or the other of us may have a different understanding of the same information than the other one.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Can VikingsGuy and ImBillT please pm each other and come back here and post a consensus. I'm all for polite discussion, but we don't need to see every thought each of you have on the subject. It is getting out of hand.

Odd reaction given your far higher post rate and tendency to spam a single angle for a week or more. Carry on.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I agree with @VikingsGuy on almost everything he says about any topic.

This can't be healthy

 

[LWC55]

Odd reaction given your far higher post rate and tendency to spam a single angle for a week or more. Carry on.

Go look at the posts since yesterday. Several pages of mainly you and I'mBillT going back and forth about testing and not testing. Some good points by both. Just seems a little excessive. Carry on.

 

[JLS]

On a completely different note:

My wife's friend has worked 63 days straight. She said the stay at home and social distancing IS working.

 

[406dn]

While I have not posted in a couple of days, I've been reading along. The discussion is cordial, so my vote is keep on keeping on.

I would tend to agree that testing to determine herd immunity should be done more or less how political polls are conducted. Take a decent sized random sample and make the calculation from there.

I think we have many miles left on the journey before we get to a point of herd immunity.

 

[ImBillT]

This can't be healthy

I said almost.

 

[ImBillT]

While I have not posted in a couple of days, I've been reading along. The discussion is cordial, so my vote is keep on keeping on.

I would tend to agree that testing to determine herd immunity should be done more or less how political polls are conducted. Take a decent sized random sample and make the calculation from there.

I think we have many miles left on the journey before we get to a point of herd immunity.

Totally agree. Decent sized random sample. Make a population wide decision. That can be state to state, county to county etc.

Individual results on the other hand are not important unless the test is perfect and the treatment is dramatically different depending on the result. Neither of those things are the case.

The longer we social distance, the longer it will take to reach herd immunity. We need to get hospitals staffed and supplied, get an adequate supply of whatever treatments options show some promise, figure out which demographics are the highest risk, and then get back to work ASAP once those things are in place.

 

[LWC55]

The percentage of positive cases is staying relatively consistent(increasing slightly).......no matter how much we are testing. I can see this being looked at 2 ways. Either the virus was much more widespread than originally thought and we are just now testing. Or social distancing is working to keep the level constant. I think antibody testing will eventually give us the answer. Hopefully sooner than later.

 

[ImBillT]

The nice thing about arguing with @VikingsGuy is that he doesn’t insult you, and he doesn’t twist your words and then argue against something you never said. He always offers a fair discussion regardless of how far apart he and the other party are.


If I say anything else nice about him everybody’s gonna hate him. It’s like Obama endorsing a political candidate.

 

[LuketheDog]

I’ve never understood why people think that discussion is unproductive. Unproductive is just posting any unsubstantiated chart or media story we find on the internet...

fyiy...good to see folks have been rubbing fenders while I was away...ya'll need to stop all this discussion per thread rules though

 

[huronmtns]

fyiy...good to see folks have been rubbing fenders while I was away...ya'll need to stop all this discussion per thread rules though

Yes, this thread has been infected with discussion. I'm sure it will die. There are some viruses that have broken through the cellular wall of intent (title) of this thread. Perhaps we treat this thread with a title change or start another thread with a title that will allow discussion. Then start a new thread that only allows factual information derived from medical experts only.

 

[LWC55]

Yes, this thread has been infected with discussion. I'm sure it will die. There are some viruses that have broken through the cellular wall of intent (title) of this thread. Perhaps we treat this thread with a title change or start another thread with a title that will allow discussion. Then start a new thread that only allows factual information derived from medical experts only.

I'm fine with a little polite discussion as I've said before. I don't know how to change the thread title but I've seen it done before. I think we might want to hear from both medical and economic experts on this subject. Because the economy and the healthcare system will both have large impacts on the other, throughout this ordeal.

 

[huronmtns]

I'm fine with a little polite discussion as I've said before. I don't know how to change the thread title but I've seen it done before. I think we might want to hear from both medical and economic experts on this subject. Because the economy and the healthcare system will both have large impacts on the other, throughout this ordeal.

I also forgot to put a smiley face in my post. It was actually meant to be funny describing how things become ill and could be cured.

 

[elkduds]

Wondering if the census will be revised later this year to account for fatalities?

 

[TwistedSage]

Here is some anecdotal data...

I have been working remotely/teleworking for the last 2+ years in NM, however my "office" is in Philadelphia and my family is from NJ...

My mom is a nurse/caseworker after a merger in a south Jersey hospital. Her hours have been cut by 10 hrs a week because there is not enough "regular patients" for lack of a better term so Her wing does not need a full staff.

My aunt who does medical coding/billing for an orthopedic surgeon group has lost her job as all elective surgeries have been postponed. Not furloughed with a chance to keep insurance, she lost her job and was told she'd had a chance to reapply when the work can resume.

At the same time I talked to by boss today after hearing that someone in the philly office tested positive and my coworker telling me yesterday she was going into self quarantine for 2 weeks. Our company has been on work from home orders since the 13th. However everyone was in the office there until the 10th. Our IT guy tested positive this week on monday. She(my boss) remembers being at the office on the 9th and hearing him hacking up a lung. His result came back monday of this week as positive, although it's pretty clear he had it a few weeks ago. There is no way everyone at that office wasn't exposed. You walk past the front desk through the kitchen/break room to get to the cubes. Everyone in that office walked through that kitchen probably 10 times a day. Looking back on it quite a few people ended up not feeling well from then to know. Did they have it? Who knows, no one else got tested and there are no plans to test anyone. Everyone is just waiting to see if they get sick, although the 2 week incubation period has passed now...

How in the hell do you capture that data? The testing/source tracing of this virus is a joke. For weeks no one could even get tested unless they had over a 103 fever and* had been in another country or had contact with another confirmed case.

I think it will takes years to actually understand this virus. There is a lot of SWAGing going on(sophisticated wild ass guess). And it seems that unless you are rich or famous you will just have to guess for yourself what the hell is going on right up until you need to me admitted to a hospital.

I apologize if this is too much discussion

Edit:by "regular patients" above, I am referring to the fact that elective procedures have been postponed and also the reality that no one is wanting to go into a hospital right now because of covid19.

 

[SAJ-99]

 

[SAJ-99]

A lot of testing methods being worked on too.