Covid-19 Data, Models, References - NO DISCUSSION

[ImBillT]

This sort of goes along with a question I'd like to ask. Does anyone know the parameters for determining what is considered a death from corona?

We all agree that many more people have corona than what is confirmed (limited testing). I don't necessarily agree with the Oxford study and think it is probably high but I will use their numbers for easy math. That study says that 50% of the UK population may have/have had corona. Translate that to our country.

Consider that the we (US) average about 8,000 deaths per day. If we now test every death for corona, it would not be unusual to have 4,000 corona deaths per day....in this hypothetical. Likely extreme but something watch for. I'd like to see how many more deaths corona is causing than normal. They call it excess mortality and it shows how severe (above the normal) a particular epidemic affects a population.

Deaths attributed to the flu when selling flu shots are deaths that had pneumonia or influenza and influenza like illnesses on the death certificate....but there’s almost always something else on the death certificate as well. If you die with a fever and cough, you’re a flu death. I’m sure anyone who tests positive for covid-19 is a covid death.

 

[Oak]

Some areas have more testing abilities than others. We have tested over 1000 here. 108 cases, 41 from elder care facilities, 10 recoveries, 14 hospitalizations, 3 fatalities, all three over 55, two were from elder care facilities, none have needed mechanical ventilation.

Because almost all of the tests have been people showing symptoms, and statewide those positives have been about 7%, you cannot accurately say that you know someone who “almost certainly has it”.

Except...

Questions About Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests Sow Worry — The Wall Street Journal

Health experts say they now believe nearly one in three patients infected with coronavirus are nevertheless getting a negative test result. That picture, many doctors say, casts doubt on the reliability of a wave of new tests developed by manufacturers, lab companies and the CDC.

apple.news

 

[ImBillT]

Except...

Questions About Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests Sow Worry — The Wall Street Journal

Health experts say they now believe nearly one in three patients infected with coronavirus are nevertheless getting a negative test result. That picture, many doctors say, casts doubt on the reliability of a wave of new tests developed by manufacturers, lab companies and the CDC.

apple.news

In that case, anyone who died after Jan 20th is a covid death.

 

[ImBillT]

Isn’t population density an important variable given we are dealing with an infectious disease spread from person to person?

Mass transportation is likely one of the biggest factors.

 

[ImBillT]

This sort of goes along with a question I'd like to ask. Does anyone know the parameters for determining what is considered a death from corona?

We all agree that many more people have corona than what is confirmed (limited testing). I don't necessarily agree with the Oxford study and think it is probably high but I will use their numbers for easy math. That study says that 50% of the UK population may have/have had corona. Translate that to our country.

Consider that the we (US) average about 8,000 deaths per day. If we now test every death for corona, it would not be unusual to have 4,000 corona deaths per day....in this hypothetical. Likely extreme but something watch for. I'd like to see how many more deaths corona is causing than normal. They call it excess mortality and it shows how severe (above the normal) a particular epidemic affects a population.

The U.K. actually uses this technique to determine excess deaths. As you can see, in the 2017/‘18 flu season, they had 5000 deaths per week more than during their usual low season. As you can see currently, they’re season a second spike. Although there are no second spikes on the chart, it has happened in the past. This second spike is one of the things cited as a reason for Asian origin of the Spanish flu. Basically, when an entirely new flu originates on another continent during the normal flu season, it can cause a second spike late in the season when it hits other continents.

Actual all cause mortality is an important factor in assessing how serious this is. Another good stat for assessing how deadly it is will be mortality in young healthy individuals.

Even if it is exactly as deadly as the flu, it should kill faaaaaarrr more people than a normal flu season simply because no one has any immunity yet. Most elderly folks and people with serious conditions are gonna be on thin ice with their next cold or flu, but they’ve had so many colds, flus, and flu shots during their life, that they aren’t that likely to catch one they’ve never had. Until we develop herd immunity, their odds of catching this are pretty high.

I was really hoping that it had been in places like the U.K. and CA for months longer than realized and had simply gone unnoticed because they were just ruled flu deaths, and the total was normal, but looking at the graph from the U.K. I don’t think that’s plausible. They appear to be having a pretty clear second spike, and that would imply that it’s just starting.

 

[MTGomer]

you cannot accurately say that you know someone who “almost certainly has it”.

No, I’m pretty sure I can.

This person (a) spent nearly a week with her sister(b) who had just returned from Italy with her husband while the sister (b) and husband were awaiting their (positive) test results.

Now the person (a) is home very ill with all the symptoms, as is the nurse she carpooled with(c) and that person’s (c) husband and mother whom she (c) lives with.

If you are an otherwise healthy 30-year-old, and you get coronavirus symptoms, after spending a week with two confirmed positive coronavirus patients, you have the coronavirus

I said I know of her, I didn’t say she was smart....

 

[LuketheDog]

Mass transportation is likely one of the biggest factors.

Yes, but people are encouraged to use public transportation here in CO if it's available, amidst the stay-at-home order

 

[rmauch20]

Our numbers, like China’s are bullshit. They’re lying and we aren’t testing.

Between 2 of my wife's coworkers at the hospital and 3 of their family members, I know of 5 people that almost certainly have it, quarantined in their homes that haven’t been able to get tested.

If I, a person who can count on one hand the number of people I personally know in the state of Arizona, anecdotally know of 5 people that almost certainly have it, how many unreported cases are there?

Early on they were saying 5 to 7 times unreported cases to what the confirmed cases are

 

[ImBillT]

No, I’m pretty sure I can.

This person (a) spent nearly a week with her sister(b) who had just returned from Italy with her husband while the sister (b) and husband were awaiting their (positive) test results.

Now the person (a) is home very ill with all the symptoms, as is the nurse she carpooled with(c) and that person’s (c) husband and mother whom she (c) lives with.

If you are an otherwise healthy 30-year-old, and you get coronavirus symptoms, after spending a week with two confirmed positive coronavirus patients, you have the coronavirus

I said I know of her, I didn’t say she was smart....

I would definitely say that it’s highly likely. But not everyone with “the symptoms” has covid-19.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Because almost all of the tests have been people showing symptoms, and statewide those positives have been about 7%, you cannot accurately say that you know someone who “almost certainly has it”.

Yup - Remember, we still have the typical 10-30 million cases of influenza this year too. And there is no way for an individual to tell the difference between the two without test results.

 

[ImBillT]

Yup - Remember, we still have the typical 10-30 million cases of influenza this year too. And there is no way for an individual to tell the difference between the two without test results.

I would really hate to catch both at once. Statistically, that’s going to happen.

 

[Bigjay73]

Speaking of numbers, I saw Russia was at 3500 cases of corona. Wonder how they've kept the number so low

 

[JLS]

Speaking of numbers, I saw Russia was at 3500 cases of corona. Wonder how they've kept the number so low

Same way China did. Shoot and/or imprison folks.

 

[npaden]

The Traffic congestion map showed last week that Moscow was running pretty much business as usual.

Looks like that changed Saturday and things are about to run the same way everyone else is now though. (7 day view)

Moscow region (oblast) traffic report | TomTom Traffic Index

Free access to live traffic data and TomTom Traffic Index congestion statistics for Moscow region (oblast). Check out live and typical traffic in Moscow region (oblast).

www.tomtom.com

 

[VikingsGuy]

Same way China did. Shoot and/or imprison folks.

And lie about the numbers

 

[Bigjay73]

And lie about the numbers

Either or

 

[VikingsGuy]

Questions About Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests Sow Worry

Health experts say they now believe nearly one in three patients infected with coronavirus are nevertheless getting a negative test result. That picture, many doctors say, casts doubt on the reliability of a wave of new tests developed by manufacturers, lab companies and the CDC.

www.wsj.com

 

[ImBillT]

Questions About Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests Sow Worry

Health experts say they now believe nearly one in three patients infected with coronavirus are nevertheless getting a negative test result. That picture, many doctors say, casts doubt on the reliability of a wave of new tests developed by manufacturers, lab companies and the CDC.

www.wsj.com

Just another reason that testing shouldn’t be our focus.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Just another reason that testing shouldn’t be our focus.

Testing - for both current infection and for post-infection evidence of immunity (two completely different tests using two completely different technologies) are essential to really getting to a less disruptive state of affairs, but getting good tests with good precision and accuracy take time, development and validation. Anybody with experience in the diagnostic area knew these rushed first gen tests were going to be noisy. Also, for the RNA-based infection testing (mostly nasal swabs), there is typically significant error introduced via sample collection, handling and preparation. So even a good test can give bad results depending on sample collection/management.

 

[hank4elk]

1st case showed in my county yesterday. Lady that works at my little local store....It's hit Catron county.