Corona virus
- Thread starter Mudder
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SAJ-99
Well-known member
The 10yr bond hit 0.5% this evening. S&P 500 hit limit down (-7%) now only down -5%. None of this was helped by Russia and Saudi Arabia getting into a spat over oil cuts, but oil is down over -25%.
This is not the common flu. The flu has a mortality rate of about 0.1%. Covid is estimated at 2%. That is 20x higher for the math impaired. If 40,000,000 people catch this (about the amount that catch the flu each year) the math says 800,000 die. Sure, no big deal if it isn’t you. However, to the counter point, the economic impact will be multiples of this because of fear. The latest estimate I saw said 40% of US economic activity is based on “social interaction”. This is a mess in the models. I’m sure the stock market will overreact to the downside, but I can’t estimate anything right now and it appears I’m not alone.
And toilet paper
brian flatlander
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I hope everybody cancels there hunting apps can you say point deecreep
Dinkshooter
Well-known member
My yearly assessment of the economy is the the Vail/Eagle county regional airport. For as at least 5 Decembers in a row, the personal jets have been triple parked in the hanger area (I know what a hassle to have your jet triple parked). This last December I noticed they were only double parked................. Everyone else's mileage may vary.
Dinkshooter
Well-known member
jryoung
Well-known member
You can, we have a flight booked for the 31st of this month, but are cancelling our hotels as we speak trying to get refunds where we can. The flight is the hardest item to get and we can cancel all the way to an hour before the flight with no penalty so we are hanging onto it.
If by some miracle there is an all clear I'll re-book hotels, was seeing several 5* hotels for sub $200 a night.
I'm most pissed that I have reservations at one of the top restaurants in the world that I'm going to have to let go of.
Little Big Man MT Chris
Well-known member
bummer
R
rwc101
Guest
I might be eating under my face mask.
The common flu has a vaccine that the old and immune deficient get yearly.
What do you suppose would happen otherwise?
TheJason
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Vaccines can reduce your odds of contracting the virus, but they don’t change the mortality rate from the virus.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Most estimates put reduction in severity at 50%. Hard to say because it mutates frequently and you can get a new strain. The vaccine is typically genetic material from “last year’s flu” so if you get a new strain the vaccine might be less effective. If the 50% is right, then double the .2% to .4%. Most opinion I’ve heard is it may not prevent you from catching it, but it reduces severity. Many people just write it off as a cold and never go to hospital and get tested.
This is why you can expect cases of CV-19 to increase. Last I heard The number of available test kits was 70,000 and jumping to 2million early this week. The more you test, the more positive you can expect, and you might get more clarity on the mortality rate. The professionals (and markets) are worried by this thing.
NEWHunter
Well-known member
Tonight, when I saw the mortality rate in Italy on 7,000+ cases is around 5%, the alarm bells went off. If a mortality rate in the low single digits holds, this thing is a BIG deal, especially with how contagious it appears to be.
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Nameless Range
Well-known member
Some resources I have been following that I have found to have good, current, and somewhat novel information:
Slate Star Codex:
Marginal Revolution Blog:
A really superb dashboard using ArcGIS
I think a takeaway I have found thought provoking is that though America may be exceptional at many things, our response to this has not been. We are seeing other countries do better, and Americans will suffer because of the systems we have in place and a lack of urgency from our government.
Slate Star Codex:
Coronavirus: Links, Speculation, Open Thread
[Epistemic status: Very weak – I’m still trying to figure all of this out. Some things in here will almost certainly be wrong. Please don’t let this overrule what government agenc…
slatestarcodex.com
Marginal Revolution Blog:
A really superb dashboard using ArcGIS
I think a takeaway I have found thought provoking is that though America may be exceptional at many things, our response to this has not been. We are seeing other countries do better, and Americans will suffer because of the systems we have in place and a lack of urgency from our government.
WyoDoug
Well-known member
It's nuts all over. Water is being sold out too. People are in a panic over this and the common flu killed way more people at a much faster rate than this one. I kinda wonder how much of it is hyped too win political points. I view it as serious but not something to panic over. My bet is it will die down after the flu and virus season is over and next year they will have a vaccine out for it.
406dn
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It looks like another large drop in the market this morning.
The number of coronavirus cases has doubled to over 500. That is vastly understating the number of cases. There is a Senator who is self quarantining as he came in contact with a coronavirus victim. We are just getting started with how bad this going to be.
Am I concerned???? I'm coming 69 in good health , my wife is 67 and has diabetes. Yeah, I'm concerned.
The number of coronavirus cases has doubled to over 500. That is vastly understating the number of cases. There is a Senator who is self quarantining as he came in contact with a coronavirus victim. We are just getting started with how bad this going to be.Am I concerned???? I'm coming 69 in good health , my wife is 67 and has diabetes. Yeah, I'm concerned.
BluegrassBilly
Active member
Three words: supply. chain. disruption.
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