Corona virus

[Doublecluck]

If you give me the list of 80,000 Chinese names infected and a list of the famous Chinese in the relevant region of china I will do the math.

There are 100,000+ known cases, the experts know with the lag and the logarithmic grow curve that there are 1,000,000 who just haven't became sick enough to be counted, they expect 20-60% of the planet to be exposed in 4 months, 7.5 billion isn't a useful number given the population centers of India, Africa and South America haven't yet been effected meaningfully yet, celebs travel more, are around bigger groups more, shake more hands, are more likely to get quick treatment given money and status, and their names are recognizable. If you want to run the math on how many "famous names" we might recognize, and how many non-famous people live in similar areas and have similar lifestyles and find the number of infections for both populations and then find a mathematical disparity I will apologize, but other wise this is complete and utter hogwash.

I’m saying there are an alarming number of random people who are getting this from unknown sources, if 1,000,000 people got it and the death rate is actually 2-3% than I guess in the next 4-20 days we’re gonna see 20,000 people die. Or will we see 20,000 people die because 100,000,000 people acually have it. Who knows.

And everyone likes a good conspiracy theory. Come on man lighten up..

 

[Sytes]

Beware - clickies may bite you in the ass... be careful of links used in your research. Example:

By now it’s likely that everyone has seen the Johns Hopkins University real-time Coronavirus tracking map, it’s a useful resource for accessing timely, accurate information about the status of the pandemic, you can find it at:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

While the Johns Hopkins site is useful, there are reports of a malicious website with a fake map representing itself as the Johns Hopkins site. It has been designed to infect unsuspecting visitors to the website with a Trojan horse virus that will steal sensitive information and data from your computer. It appears to be spread through infected email attachments, malicious online advertisements, and social media/engineering.

If you are looking to access the map, do not trust web page ads, email links/attachments or any other social media links to access the map, use the link provided above or just Google: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Map.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I agree with everything you’ve said, and 9/319 is definitely a high enough prevalence rate that even a really bad test would be useful. I don’t know any details on the cruise ship, or the athletes that turned up positive. If you test an entire cruise ship or entire sports LEAGUE, with a test that results in .5% false positives and there are 1000 people on the cruise ship, that’s 5 false positives. Same goes for sports leagues, and entire cities. You have to have a higher prevalence rate than the error rate of the test or the test is worthless.

Again, when you test a high risk group, like sick people, and get 9/319, then we know some people have it. When you test a large group of people in whom the prevalence is low, you will probably just get a confusing mess rather than a meaningful result.

Is there a higher rate of error when testing a person has a cold? Aren’t all colds a corona virus? How many positives weren’t COVID-19, but rather just some other corona virus that’s been in humans for many years and isn’t a big deal?

Lots of good points. Again, I have no idea the error rate, and it will have both a false positive and a false negative so if those are vaguely equal the population statistics are still useful - some are and some aren't. As for differentiating corona virus variants these RNA based tests are super specific - my guess is the majority of whatever error there is, is the result of sample handling and preparation - which is not easy when you are talking thousand of clinical samples ranging from nose swabs to flem samples (ick). Sample error tends to elevate the false negatives more than false positives except in the case of cross-contamination.

 

[Hilljackoutlaw]

If you want to go down this road at least accurately refer to it has a "flu with attitude" as it kicks the flu's ass headsup.

It doesnt kick the 2017-18 flu's ass. And it's probably not much different. I mean I could be wrong but 61,000 flu deaths is pretty bad.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Who knows.

And on this point we both agree!

 

[VikingsGuy]

It doesnt kick the 2017-18 flu's ass. And it's probably not much different. I mean I could be wrong but 61,000 flu deaths is pretty bad.

That's why I said heads up - flu 0.1% death rate - CV between 1-4% death rate - way worse. Number of deaths is only because flu has been present in the global population at high volume for centuries. What's tougher a tiger or 1,000 mice?

 

[Hilljackoutlaw]

That's why I said heads up - flu 0.1% death rate - CV between 1-4% death rate - way worse. Number of deaths is only because flu has been present in the global population at high volume for centuries. What's tougher a tiger or 1,000 mice?

I understand what ur saying. But I also think the death rate for CV is gonna end up being well below 1% in the end.

 

[Irrelevant]

My wife just got off the phone with a colleague who is a cardiologist. Today the cardiologist got a phone call from a gastroenterologist regarding a mutual patient. The patient was getting a colonoscopy and passed out, the gastro said you need to go to the hospital. Patient said, no way, I don't want to get corona virus, call my cardiologist. Cardiologist got on the phone and said, it seems like a cardiac event, you need to go to the hospital, right now, call an ambulance if needed. Patient refused, left, and died a few hours later of an apparent heart attack.

Darwin award?

 

[Cheesehead]

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

Politicians and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?

medium.com

 

[trb]

Trudeau's (Canadian prime minister) wife tested positive for it. I don't want to sound like a tin-foil hat wearin, gonna-start-bottlin' air conspiracy theorist but does anyone else find it odd that so many celebrity types are all the sudden testing positive? I mean, most celebrities live a pretty guarded life. I understand they attend large functions but reported cases in Canada and Australia (Hanks) are low. Just seems odd. Like we are way, way off on the numbers across the entire globe.

Availability of testing.

 

[Nameless Range]

Can someone link that Mayo Clinic q and a again?

Mayo Clinic Q&A podcast: Vaccine expert's advice on COVID-19 - Mayo Clinic News Network

This week’s episode of Mayo Clinic Q&A separates fact from fiction on COVID-19 (coronavirus). Dr. Gregory Poland, head of Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group, discusses who is at risk, how to stay protected from the virus, and, if there will be a coronavirus vaccine in the future. Mayo Clinic...

newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org

 

[BuzzH]

I understand what ur saying. But I also think the death rate for CV is gonna end up being well below 1% in the end.

You aren't paid to think...if only obviously.

 

[Tradewind]

You aren't paid to think...if only obviously.

you should check out the puppy pic thread.. Might help...

 

[VikingsGuy]

I understand what ur saying. But I also think the death rate for CV is gonna end up being well below 1% in the end.

I hope so, but haven't see any data on that.

 

[LousyResident]

I understand what ur saying. But I also think the death rate for CV is gonna end up being well below 1% in the end.

 

[88man]

Trump repeatedly compared the virus to being no worse than the flu. He called the criticism of his response a hoax, perpetrated by his political opponents.

It does not advance your argument to just smear people as ass hats.

The buck stops with the guy in charge. There's your ass hat.

I know you hate Trump and thats fine. Many Drs describe the symptoms as the common cold and said that 70 to 80 % of the infected never know they have the virus.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Since we were talking geographic population numbers . . . .

 

[dcopas78]

Availability of testing.

Granted they are more apt to be tested because of social status.

 

[noharleyyet]

You aren't paid to think...if only obviously.

For those of you who need the Big Stick translator.....that's a pejorative discompliment.

 

[jryoung]

I do not give coronavirus permission to infect me, my family, or any people/dogs I know, in both the past and the future. By posting this statement, I give my notice to the coronavirus that it is strictly forbidden to infect me, infect anybody close to me, make me ill, send me or any of my family members into quarantine, or take any other action against me on the basis of my body and/or its contents. The wellness of my body is private and confidential. The violation of my privacy can be punished by law (UCC 1-308-1 1 308-103 and the Rome statute). Note: Coronavirus is now a pandemic. All Facebook Users must post a note like this. If you prefer, you can copy and paste this version. If you do not publish a statement at least once, you have given tacit agreement allowing you, as well as all of your friends on your Facebook page, to be infected.