Big Slick
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How big of a mess is the draw going to be this year for these critters?
Colorado sheep, goat & moose....
- Thread starter Big Slick
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Khunter
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Very, Very big mess. Thousands of newly minted 3+0 point holders makes me thankful I drew sheep and goat the last 2 years and already pulled my OIL bull moose.
Hawk Tuah
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I did the math on another forum for the next three years and need to look it up. Literally thousands, as @Khunter said, and they are putting in for very few tags. Crazy thing is that points were only a couple bucks when I started (and you had to float tag fees). I think a year of sheep, moose and goats points with a shot at drawing was less than $20/year. Now for a shot at M/S/G it will run you about $400/year...for raffle-type odds, with not a ton to show for long-term loyalty. Max points won't be worth much when two or three hundred extra people put in for the tag, each year, for the next few years and beyond
I am at 3-16 on sheep and less for goat since I drew a while back. (I have some moose points but odds were bad enough before that I never thought I would draw anyway.) With weighted points and nothing squared, it pretty much turns what was likely an eventuality for some guys to get a sheep tag to a complete crap shoot.
Colorado executed the "bait and switch" to perfection.
I am at 3-16 on sheep and less for goat since I drew a while back. (I have some moose points but odds were bad enough before that I never thought I would draw anyway.) With weighted points and nothing squared, it pretty much turns what was likely an eventuality for some guys to get a sheep tag to a complete crap shoot.
Colorado executed the "bait and switch" to perfection.
Hawk Tuah
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Here is the math unless I entered something wrong in my calculator...I did this right after 2020 draw.
SHEEP
- 3554 NR applicants who could have drawn this year
- 5138 additional NR who will be able to draw in 3 more years
GOAT
- 2021 NR applicants who could have drawn this year
- 3895 additional NR who will be able to draw in 3 more years
SHEEP
- 3554 NR applicants who could have drawn this year
- 5138 additional NR who will be able to draw in 3 more years
GOAT
- 2021 NR applicants who could have drawn this year
- 3895 additional NR who will be able to draw in 3 more years
AggieHunter
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I’m at the bottom of the point pool for both but hoping to have my dad draw a ewe tag. At least it’s a modified point system so there’s a chance.
Hawk Tuah
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Hope he gets the ewe tag. They are fun.
Khunter
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deleted some previously posted bad math in this post..
Last edited:
I see 3335 R's with 2+0
PP only apps are included in the Draw totals on page 1 (since S-P-999-99-P is one of the 128 hunt codes for sheep)
Either way - if trends hold and ~80% of people continue, we would expect 1400 new R applicants in the eligible pool this year. Which is about 2X normal from recent years.
D
Deleted member 28227
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1/1000 or 1/2000 I’m not drawing... glad CPW is getting more $ hopefully they put some of that towards MSG.
Na, just wolves....
I know - but it's February (and a holiday weekend so we can't even Ski unless we want to be subjected to the Jerry Army), so I prefer to fret and build spreadsheets over tenths of percentage points on tags I won't draw.
Are you guys sure your not the same person?
D
Deleted member 28227
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Na @cedahm is actually wicked smaat I just pretend to be
I’m in consulting...pretending to be wicked smaat is like half the job description.
But back on-topic: If I were a NR interested in CO Moose or Sheep (and probably Goats), I'd think hard about stopping @ 3+0 and putting that $100 point fee to work on the RMBS raffle or something like that.
In consulting-eze, after that, the Juice likely isn't worth the squeeze.
I still think it's worth it as a resident, but will watch the next couple years closely.
Khunter
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Yep, my bad, somehow i thought the pref pt only apps were separate from the page 1 totals. Now it makes no sense for me to have thought that. LOL
marksjeep
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Food for thought....youth receive no preference in m/s/g. Unless I'm missing something, their application is thrown in the pot with everyone else. That's another 835 R's with 2+0 heading into the sheep draw this year at 3+0. Historically, about 50% of 3+0 to 3+3 applicants apply for a point only. So, we got that going for us...
way to pile on, Debbie downer...but good catch.
I am surprised at the level of continuance from the 2018 free for all. I would have guessed more like 25% would have continued paying the $50. It was more like 40%.
If trends hold (~72% of applicants continue from 0->3 - in, admittedly, a very small sample size) - we should expect ~3000 Resident 3+0 applicants in 2021.
| R' Apps Only | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0->3 continue |
| 2020 | 1538 | 4170 | 3163 | 3176 | 73% |
| 2019 | 1167 | 1656 | 5194 | 2118 | 65% |
| 2018 | 1472 | 1717 | 2357 | 12272 | 78% |
| 2017 | 1106 | 1371 | 1481 | 2109 | |
| 2016 | 1093 | 1172 | 1518 | 1801 | |
| 2015 | 1010 | 1196 | 1342 | 1889 |
rmyoung1
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Stretcher_Jockey
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How does CO distribute NR tags? Is there a specific pool set aside for NR's or is it just up to a certain percentage with none "guaranteed"?
rmyoung1
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Depends on the species. For deer & elk, there’s a very generous “up to 35%” for most units and “up to 20%” for some of the units that have had more resident demand, historically. For antelope, there is no resident/nonresident differentiation. For sheep & moose & mountain goat, there’s a specific set-aside for nonresidents. And bear tags are like party favors at an 8-year-old’s birthday celebration. They practically give those things away.
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