Hawk Tuah
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 6, 2018
- Messages
- 1,600
I disagree and think it will go the other way. I may be wrong. It can go either way and we both have valid points. We won't known until the future.Getting an education vs. being born at the right time to start applying for draws in Western states are completely different things. Someone applying for some of these preference point states today have close to a zero chance of ever drawing a tag even if they apply their entire life. They could apply for 50 years and not draw a tag, but someone who started 20 years ago is pretty much guaranteed a tag in the next couple years. That doesn't seem to have much to do with fairness anyway you slice it.
Your bottom scenario is most likely skewed the opposite way. I think more states will end up going to more of a pure lottery type drawing on the MSG type tags. The demographics have changed and there are way more people applying for these tags than there ever will be animals to fill them. If you do the math there is no way to get the current number of people through the system because there just aren't enough animals to go around. If you make it based on longevity that doesn't increase the number of animals, there still aren't enough to go around.
Idaho takes about just under $300 for a non-resident to apply for sheep. The best odds for 2019 were 0.7% for a unit that is on par with a Montana unlimited unit as far as sheep densities, access and terrain, but obviously less hunter pressure. All I mean is that beating the 0.7% won't get you hunting Unit 11 or 37.
At what point will people not want to put $300 down for a chance with no long term reward (point) for doing so? No one knows? 0.07? 0.007? The bubble will burst eventually if supply is stagnant and demand keeps growing everytime a flat-brimmed wearing Instagrammer makes western hunting look more macho.
With bonus systems I think people rationalize they are increasing their chances for the money they spend. For the record, I don't like straight preference. I just said it was more fair to those who have played the game.
I get the age part. I do. But don't forget that the guy with 30 points today won't be around to draw tags indefinitely...people grow too old to chase sheep, then they die.
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