California Deer Draw Point Creep Summary

[jryoung]

For the 4 of you that also hunt California and the few lurkers out there I ran an analysis of our point creep on deer tags over the last 5 years. If you exclude the max point draws from G and M, there really isn't a lot of crazy creep across the board.

 

[BradA]

Thanks for sharing that!

 

[2rocky]

Thanks. I'm still chasing my deer tag.

 

[Lyfter1013]

thanks for posting, I was hoping to be able to go on one X12 hunt with my dad before he isn’t able to go anymore but I don’t see us catching up Before that happens. Once they cut the tags, i think 7 or so Years ago put that out of range we will either cash in our Points this year or next year on another X zone

 

[jlong17]

Not to mention I can’t draw my unit second choice anymore. Thinking of just burning points and never building em here again.

 

[Huntin' Fool]

There had been a huge loophole that allowed a hunter with no points to apply as a group with others that had points but didn't hunt. Then turn back in their tags. Rinse/repeat. Was just closed last year so should shorten point creep.

Have 6 deer points, going to keep accumulating.

Haven't archery hunted A zone for awhile. Going to try and be there opening day, July 8th.

 

[millerkiller77]

I need to put in for Archery tags. This will be the first year I've applied in CA.

 

[jryoung]

There had been a huge loophole that allowed a hunter with no points to apply as a group with others that had points but didn't hunt. Then turn back in their tags. Rinse/repeat. Was just closed last year so should shorten point creep.

I think the impact of this was overblown, was it a loophole? Sure. Was it creating a material impact? Not from what I've seen, not even close.

Here are the point totals for deer tags in CA over the past 4 years.

 

[Nickman123]

I think the straight preference point system they are using has worked pretty well for the deer. As you stated, most of the units have reached an established number of points necessary to draw and are pretty much holding there. The problem I'm seeing is that more and more of the units are being converted to"premium" tags that require you draw them, usually as your first choice. It's getting harder and harder to put in for one of the hard to get tags as a first choice, knowing you probably won't get it, and then have another sort of "over the counter" tag as your second choice backup.

 

[Moserkr]

Had an x4 tag in 2018, shot a decent buck, but saw very few deer for what I expected out of a 4 pt draw. I see more deer in d3-5. Granted I know the area better, but I spent 2 weeks straight in x4, plus scouting trips, and could count the bucks I saw on 1 hand. Chasing pts in another unit now but should catch up this year or next.

 

[jryoung]

I think the straight preference point system they are using has worked pretty well for the deer. As you stated, most of the units have reached an established number of points necessary to draw and are pretty much holding there. The problem I'm seeing is that more and more of the units are being converted to"premium" tags that require you draw them, usually as your first choice. It's getting harder and harder to put in for one of the hard to get tags as a first choice, knowing you probably won't get it, and then have another sort of "over the counter" tag as your second choice backup.

Technically it's a modified preference point system as we allocate 10% to a draw by choice/random.

To your second point, the change in classifications isn't really moving "more and more units" to Premium, they are generally the same tags going back and forth between classifications. When a tag bumps to Premium, it falls out of Premium the next year, then the following year gets put back. Typically any of these tags below, when in the Premium classification, can be picked up as a second choice in the draw without points.

2018
From Restricted to Premium deer tags:

• A22 – tag quota filled on 6/15/17

From Unrestricted deer tags to Premium deer tags:

• A18 – tag quota filled on 6/14/17

• A19 – tag quota filled on 6/20/17

From Premium deer tag to Restricted deer tag:

• D6 – tag quota filled on 7/5/17

2019

From Restricted deer tag to Premium deer tag:

• D6 – tag quota filled on 7/2/18

From Premium deer tags to Restricted deer tags:

• A18 – tag quota filled on 7/16/18

• A22 – tag quota filled on 7/17/18

From Premium deer tag to Unrestricted deer tag:

• A19 – tag quota filled on 8/4/18


2020

From Restricted deer tags to Premium deer tags:

• D14 – tag quota filled on 6/24/19

• A18 – tag quota filled on 6/14/19

• A22 – tag quota filled on 6/15/19

From Unrestricted deer tags to Premium deer tags:

• A19 – tag quota filled on 6/10/19

From Premium deer tag to Unrestricted deer tag:

• D6 – tag quota filled on 8/4/19

2021

From Unrestricted deer tags to Premium deer tags:

• D6 – tag quota filled on 6/16/2020
• D16 – tag quota filled on 6/24/2020
• A32 – tag quota filled on 7/2/2020

2022

From Premium to Restricted deer tags:

• D6 – tag quota filled on 7/3/2021

From Unrestricted to Restricted deer tags:

• D19 – tag quota filled on 7/25/2021

From Premium to Unrestricted deer tags:

• A32 – tag quota filled on 8/4/2021
• D16 – tag quota filled on 8/3/2021

2023

From Restricted to Premium deer tag:

• D6 – tag quota filled on 6/16/2022

From Unrestricted to Premium deer tag:

• D16 – tag quota filled on 6/25/2022

From Unrestricted to Restricted deer tags:

• A32 – tag quota filled on 7/15/2022

 

[SDxplor]

Great thread, thanks for all of the info. I love nerding out on these stats. Agree that CA point system seems to actually be working "OK" compared to the messes in other states. I think maybe we don't get the crazy numbers of NRs getting into the mix.

 

[tanner127]

Thanks for putting that together. This will be my first year applying as a NR. Picked up the lifetime license before I left though because I still have family there.

 

[glass eye]

Early on in the CA point system I had a brain fart and missed the deadline, only time ever that I missed it. So that put me 1 point shy of maximum points.
So for elk, antelope and sheep my only hope is the lesser % random draw.

I believe but just want to confirm that it would do me no good to buy a point only since I'm already behind the 8 ball.

The only sheep tag that I can apply for is the White Mountains but I plan on hunting in Alaska in August/September.
Because of my guiding I can't apply for the December/January hunts.

 

[BradA]

Early on in the CA point system I had a brain fart and missed the deadline, only time ever that I missed it. So that put me 1 point shy of maximum points.
So for elk, antelope and sheep my only hope is the lesser % random draw.

I believe but just want to confirm that it would do me no good to buy a point only since I'm already behind the 8 ball.

The only sheep tag that I can apply for is the White Mountains but I plan on hunting in Alaska in August/September.
Because of my guiding I can't apply for the December/January hunts.
View attachment 277179

Well it’s kinda how you look at the system, how old are you? Do you think that you could possibly be a max point holder one year? And is it worth the money spent over loosing a point or possibly loosing out on that opportunity?

Depending on your answers will define if you should gather another point or not stress about it. It won’t change your current draw odds with the current CA draw system. Same odds if you have 0-20 points.

What are you hunting for in Alaska? Do you guide in California? And what for ?

 

[glass eye]

Well it’s kinda how you look at the system, how old are you? Do you think that you could possibly be a max point holder one year? And is it worth the money spent over loosing a point or possibly loosing out on that opportunity?

Depending on your answers will define if you should gather another point or not stress about it. It won’t change your current draw odds with the current CA draw system. Same odds if you have 0-20 points.

What are you hunting for in Alaska? Do you guide in California? And what for ?

I'm 60 and 1 point shy of max points so I know I'll never reach max point status with sheep.
I guess the real question is wether or not I want to cancel my Alaska trip for a miraculous sheep tag. The answer should be obvious but I struggle with it.

I plan on driving up to Alaska from SoCal and take my time hunting caribou beyond the 5 mile mark on the haul road. Then drive home in early Sep hunting waterfowl in Canada.

I guide for waterfowl in CA.

 

[DWarcher]

Lack of NR will do that.

 

[BradA]

I'm 60 and 1 point shy of max points so I know I'll never reach max point status with sheep.
I guess the real question is wether or not I want to cancel my Alaska trip for a miraculous sheep tag. The answer should be obvious but I struggle with it.

I plan on driving up to Alaska from SoCal and take my time hunting caribou beyond the 5 mile mark on the haul road. Then drive home in early Sep hunting waterfowl in Canada.

I guide for waterfowl in CA.

Well since you won’t get to the max point then I suppose it doesn’t matter and either way nothing much changes for you, or you could throw your name in the hat and if you did draw the “raffle” ticket basically then cancel Alaska or guiding for the year (depending on what hunt you go for)

Have to post a story and pics of your Alaska hunt. Good luck! Sounds like an amazing time.

 

[glass eye]

Well since you won’t get to the max point then I suppose it doesn’t matter and either way nothing much changes for you, or you could throw your name in the hat and if you did draw the “raffle” ticket basically then cancel Alaska or guiding for the year (depending on what hunt you go for)

Have to post a story and pics of your Alaska hunt. Good luck! Sounds like an amazing time.

Went ahead and applied for sheep just now. So if ever I was to draw sheep it would be now because it conflicts with my Alaska hunt.
No way I could cancel on my clients who have been waiting patiently for several years.

 

[2rocky]

Breck, my answer for being under Max points is to apply for all the longshots. I'll change my plans for a Sheep tag. Hell I might change my career too if I had to. I'm not in control of how likely I am to draw or not except if I put in or not.