406dn
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2019
- Messages
- 2,468
You sold it all off? It's not a loss until you sell and take the defeat.
I said "paper" losses. I have not sold anything. Kinda wish I'd sold all of it before "Liberation Day".
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You sold it all off? It's not a loss until you sell and take the defeat.
So can we all get this crystal ball you are using?I don't quite understand the roll through it with TSP or 401.
Reality, (IMO/E) pull the stocks into a cash or bond market. Let it drop 20% and buy back in.
Result? You re-enter a market purchasing stocks at 20% below current market value thus, when it returns from the dip, you have 20% increase over those who rode through it.
While many fear the shifting of funds, it buggles my mind why $200k (1 mil retirement) is not a valued win exiting the dip.
Okay, let's play the crystal ball theory.So can we all get this crystal ball you are using?
Okay, let's play the crystal ball theory.
If you hold and ride it out or you pull it to cash/bonds and buy back in when it drops 20%, there is absolutely ZERO difference OTHER than one, you made 20% more than those who rode it out.
If it crashes completely - absolute depression, businesses no longer present... BOTH strategies are fk'd.
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If you are old, this shouldn't be impacting you as you were smart and safely moved your assets out of risky stocks and into bonds. Bonds still have ok rates, my bank is still offering 4+% cdsI'm guessing most folks on the board are older than you.
Okay, let's play the crystal ball theory.
If you hold and ride it out or you pull it to cash/bonds and buy back in when it drops 20%, there is absolutely ZERO difference OTHER than one, you made 20% more than those who rode it out.
If it crashes completely - absolute depression, businesses no longer present... BOTH strategies are fk'd.
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Avoiding the market’s downs may mean missing out on the ups as well. Seventy-eight percent of the stock market’s best days have occurred during a bear market or during the first two months of a bull market. If you missed the market’s 10 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would have been cut in half. And missing the best 30 days would have reduced your returns by an astonishing 83%.
If you are old, this shouldn't be impacting you as you were smart and safely moved your assets out of risky stocks and into bonds. Bonds still have ok rates, my bank is still offering 4+% cds
Overreacting to them is also stupid. I'm not saying specifically that this isn't going to bad just saying that saying it's stupid right now is. Give it time to play out. Reacting on the last few weeks is silly. Market drops like this has happened before and you just need to cease the moment rather than panicThe market is inherently volatile, that can't be avoided. What can be avoided is a stupid governmental policy that panics the market.
If you are in retirement that sounds just about rightSo, about matching inflation.
It's not a challenge to see the market is 20% lower than when you pulled your money to cash/bonds.If you can always get that timing right, great. And you should start a hedge fund. For 99% of people leaving it in is the best approach. With some mindful allocation adjustments based on risk, age, etc.
What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks? - A Wealth of Common Sense
What happens when you only invest at the peaks of the market by being the world's worst market timer.awealthofcommonsense.com
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Timing the Market Is Impossible
In times of volatility, timing the market may seem tempting. But doing so could cost you.www.hartfordfunds.com
Overreacting to them is also stupid. I'm not saying specifically that this isn't going to bad just saying that saying it's stupid right now is. Give it time to play out. Reacting on the last few weeks is silly. Market drops like this has happened before and you just need to cease the moment rather than panic
If you hold and ride it out or you pull it to cash/bonds and buy back in when it drops 20%, there is absolutely ZERO difference OTHER than one, you made 20% more than those who rode it out.
1. 5% increase is better than no % increase. 20% is simply where I am sitting at and I have yet to re-enter the market as I believe as well as all the extreme chicken littles, we are bound for more than a 20% market loss.You’re absolutely right.
I’ll play. Two quick questions:
1. Starting today looking forward- on what date will the next 20% drop begin?
2. What is the plan if it doesn’t drop the full 20%? You just sit in cash indefinitely?
If you can’t answer both of those questions correctly, the plan is sunk.
Maybe you aren't. But you have eluded to it or that people should be.Where have I said I'm panicked.
Kinda wish I'd sold all of it before "Liberation Day"
that panics the market
No one knows when the next 20% drop will be, and no one knows how low the market can go. Back before the crash of 2007/8 my 401k was fully invested in a S&P 500 index fund. I pulled it all out the exact day before the market started dropping - mostly pure luck. I then reinvested when it dropped 20%. However the market eventually dropped over 50%. It took a long time to recover from that. Worst thing is I was pretty sure that it wasn't at the bottom when I reinvested - but I didn't want to be greedy - HA.You’re absolutely right.
I’ll play. Two quick questions:
1. Starting today looking forward- on what date will the next 20% drop begin?
2. What is the plan if it doesn’t drop the full 20%? You just sit in cash indefinitely?
If you can’t answer both of those questions correctly, the plan is sunk.
Hilarious. If you think that is what a financial advisor is for, you need a new one. They aren't there for you to rely on them to "Time the market" but instead how to properly invest and diversify. I've always felt that while professional financial advisors can give you good financial advice based on history, they can't predict the future, because if they could then they wouldn't be sitting in an office 40hrs a week, they would be on a beach in the Bahamas.
What happened to all the doomsday, Trump is destroying our economy, b.s.?You’re absolutely right.
I’ll play. Two quick questions:
1. Starting today looking forward- on what date will the next 20% drop begin?
2. What is the plan if it doesn’t drop the full 20%? You just sit in cash indefinitely?
If you can’t answer both of those questions correctly, the plan is sunk.
1. 5% increase is better than no % increase. 20% is simply where I am sitting at and I have yet to re-enter the market as I believe as well as all the extreme chicken littles, we are bound for more than a 20% market loss.
This goes against everything I have learned about how much you lose sitting in cash rather than invested, but if ever there was a time I can see now being it. IF that cash position is something like a money market position that at least gets close to keeping your money up with inflation. But there is still the issue if timing when to get back in--no one can do that. Money of our biggest crashes have dropped hard then had a recovery for a day or two before dropping even harder. Again I can see not doing so for awhile as nothing about this is normal, or at least hasn't been for 90 years or so. But theres a point where sitting in cash will cost you money, it always does.1. 5% increase is better than no % increase. 20% is simply where I am sitting at and I have yet to re-enter the market as I believe as well as all the extreme chicken littles, we are bound for more than a 20% market loss.
2. If I sit in cash, "indefinately" I buy back in at the value when I sold... this equates to ZERO LOSS.
Thus the plan does not sink.
It's simple.
Huh?Perhaps. Perhaps not. What if you guess wrong?
If you missed the market’s 10 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would have been cut in half. 25 of the best 50 days of the past 30 years happened during a bear market.
Things can happen quickly in both directions.