406dn
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2019
- Messages
- 2,490
I said "paper" losses. I have not sold anything. Kinda wish I'd sold all of it before "Liberation Day".
Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
- Start date
I said "paper" losses. I have not sold anything. Kinda wish I'd sold all of it before "Liberation Day".
Bonasababy
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 16, 2024
- Messages
- 933
So can we all get this crystal ball you are using?
Okay, let's play the crystal ball theory.
If you hold and ride it out or you pull it to cash/bonds and buy back in when it drops 20%, there is absolutely ZERO difference OTHER than one, you made 20% more than those who rode it out.
If it crashes completely - absolute depression, businesses no longer present... BOTH strategies are fk'd.
406dn
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2019
- Messages
- 2,490
Okay, let's play the crystal ball theory.
If you hold and ride it out or you pull it to cash/bonds and buy back in when it drops 20%, there is absolutely ZERO difference OTHER than one, you made 20% more than those who rode it out.
If it crashes completely - absolute depression, businesses no longer present... BOTH strategies are fk'd.
I played a version of that game while working. I was buying and selling the company stock. Several times, I made some money doing it. Then one time I bought the dip, and after a run up, I sold the stock, expecting another dip. The stock climbed a good amount, after I sold it. At some point I realized the train had left the station.
It might be, thou I doubt it, that we have effectively bottomed out. There might not be another big dip. So, you wait for a price lower than you sold at, while the market continues to climb above your sell point.
I learned the hard way, it is better to let a good run of time work for you. The market has rewarded me handsomely over the years, even with this idiotic tariff policy.
Evidently there are several GOP Senators starting to get cold feet about letting Trump have so much latitude, when it comes to tariffs.
seeth07
Well-known member
If you are old, this shouldn't be impacting you as you were smart and safely moved your assets out of risky stocks and into bonds. Bonds still have ok rates, my bank is still offering 4+% cds
westbranch
Well-known member
Okay, let's play the crystal ball theory.
If you hold and ride it out or you pull it to cash/bonds and buy back in when it drops 20%, there is absolutely ZERO difference OTHER than one, you made 20% more than those who rode it out.
If it crashes completely - absolute depression, businesses no longer present... BOTH strategies are fk'd.
If you can always get that timing right, great. And you should start a hedge fund. For 99% of people leaving it in is the best approach. With some mindful allocation adjustments based on risk, age, etc.
What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks? - A Wealth of Common Sense
What happens when you only invest at the peaks of the market by being the world's worst market timer.
awealthofcommonsense.com
Timing the Market Is Impossible
In times of volatility, timing the market may seem tempting. But doing so could cost you.
406dn
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2019
- Messages
- 2,490
So, about matching inflation.
Even when you retire in your early 60's, as I did, you have a significant number of years left in life expectancy. I hate to think where I'd be if I had put everything into bonds.
The market is inherently volatile, that can't be avoided. What can be avoided is a stupid governmental policy that panics the market.
seeth07
Well-known member
Overreacting to them is also stupid. I'm not saying specifically that this isn't going to bad just saying that saying it's stupid right now is. Give it time to play out. Reacting on the last few weeks is silly. Market drops like this has happened before and you just need to cease the moment rather than panic
seeth07
Well-known member
If you are in retirement that sounds just about right
It's not a challenge to see the market is 20% lower than when you pulled your money to cash/bonds.If you can always get that timing right, great. And you should start a hedge fund. For 99% of people leaving it in is the best approach. With some mindful allocation adjustments based on risk, age, etc.
What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks? - A Wealth of Common Sense
What happens when you only invest at the peaks of the market by being the world's worst market timer.
Timing the Market Is Impossible
In times of volatility, timing the market may seem tempting. But doing so could cost you.www.hartfordfunds.com
It hits that 20% you buy back in. 20% $$$ gained over those who did - nothing. If the market is done for... Both settings are fk'd.
It's rudementary math.
406dn
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2019
- Messages
- 2,490
Where have I said I'm panicked. I have not sold anything. Also it would be better if you used seize the moment.
All of this is a shoot yourself in the foot action. How it plays out is unknown. My confidence in Trump is not as solid as your's evidently. I do have his multiple bankruptcies influencing my confidence in him.
You’re absolutely right.
I’ll play. Two quick questions:
1. Starting today looking forward- on what date will the next 20% drop begin?
2. What is the plan if it doesn’t drop the full 20%? You just sit in cash indefinitely?
If you can’t answer both of those questions correctly, the plan is sunk.
1. 5% increase is better than no % increase. 20% is simply where I am sitting at and I have yet to re-enter the market as I believe as well as all the extreme chicken littles, we are bound for more than a 20% market loss.
2. If I sit in cash, "indefinately" I buy back in at the value when I sold... this equates to ZERO LOSS.
Thus the plan does not sink.
It's simple.
seeth07
Well-known member
Maybe you aren't. But you have eluded to it or that people should be.
Irishman
Well-known member
No one knows when the next 20% drop will be, and no one knows how low the market can go. Back before the crash of 2007/8 my 401k was fully invested in a S&P 500 index fund. I pulled it all out the exact day before the market started dropping - mostly pure luck. I then reinvested when it dropped 20%. However the market eventually dropped over 50%. It took a long time to recover from that. Worst thing is I was pretty sure that it wasn't at the bottom when I reinvested - but I didn't want to be greedy - HA.
As far as timing when to invest - nobody knows - not even the so called experts. I've always felt that while professional financial advisors can give you good financial advice based on history, they can't predict the future, because if they could then they wouldn't be sitting in an office 40hrs a week, they would be on a beach in the Bahamas.
seeth07
Well-known member
Hilarious. If you think that is what a financial advisor is for, you need a new one. They aren't there for you to rely on them to "Time the market" but instead how to properly invest and diversify
What happened to all the doomsday, Trump is destroying our economy, b.s.?
The 15-20% drop is the extent of this dip?
Haha!
Perhaps. Perhaps not. What if you guess wrong?
If you missed the market’s 10 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would have been cut in half. 25 of the best 50 days of the past 30 years happened during a bear market.
Things can happen quickly in both directions.
Bonasababy
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 16, 2024
- Messages
- 933
This goes against everything I have learned about how much you lose sitting in cash rather than invested, but if ever there was a time I can see now being it. IF that cash position is something like a money market position that at least gets close to keeping your money up with inflation. But there is still the issue if timing when to get back in--no one can do that. Money of our biggest crashes have dropped hard then had a recovery for a day or two before dropping even harder. Again I can see not doing so for awhile as nothing about this is normal, or at least hasn't been for 90 years or so. But theres a point where sitting in cash will cost you money, it always does.1. 5% increase is better than no % increase. 20% is simply where I am sitting at and I have yet to re-enter the market as I believe as well as all the extreme chicken littles, we are bound for more than a 20% market loss.
2. If I sit in cash, "indefinately" I buy back in at the value when I sold... this equates to ZERO LOSS.
Thus the plan does not sink.
It's simple.
What I have always done--and it has both bit me and helped me, point being I could not time things anybetter than anyone else can--is just adjust my mix when market concerns get squirrely towards more bond funds in the mix--but never all bonds. Right now we are maybe 65 percent the most we have ever been, but thats due as much as knowing our ROR need to stretch the money well into our 90s and reducing risk and worry while in retirement to a level that over time should easily meet that.
Huh?
Share anything I stated that would cause my returns to be cut in half???
Fact is, if people pulled their money pre trump liberation day, they would have the ability to buy in at the lost percentage it's at currently.
If it's 15% of 1 mil, that is 150,000 gained when the dip rebounds.
If it's 10% of 1 mil, fhat is 100,000 gained when the dip rebounds.
If it's 5% of 1 mil, fhat is 50,000 gained when the dip rebounds.
If you can not wrap your head around the ability to profit off a dip via TSP/401, then I strongly suggest you ride it out with 0% gain /loss.
Similar threads
