Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Lostinthewoods]

I'm stuck right now on a rental property decision.... I was going to 1031 it, but now I'm mathing out if it makes more sense to sell and drop in the market for a year or two.

 

[NDGuy]

I'm stuck right now on a rental property decision.... I was going to 1031 it, but now I'm mathing out if it makes more sense to sell and drop in the market for a year or two.

tbh from what historically it shows for real estate hard to ever sell...people need a home.

 

[Lostinthewoods]

tbh from what historically it shows for real estate hard to ever sell...people need a home.

I always much prefer having the rentals and selling to where I take a tax hit never comes to my mind.

However for this specific one that I could probably sell fast, I am playing games with myself wondering if I sell it, pay taxes and recapture, dump all the money into some mutual funds, play it until things “correct”, then buy another rental.

I think I’m probably over thinking it and it would need a lot of things to go right to work.

I’ll probably just 1031 it.

It needs to get sold because I’m trying to bring my rentals closer to me now that I’m settling down. Now have them all over the US.

 

[Big Sky Guy]

I’d like to see someone give a real cogent argument as to where they actually see an economic upside here that would lead to a market recovery…And please don’t say by bringing manufacturing back as that is a multi year effort that realistically takes much longer than the 4 years this administration, if we even want to call it that, has.
Let’s face it, none of us alive have ever seen anything like this before. Last time tariffs like this were inplemented it ended up taking the stock market 25 years to recover, yes 25 years. The difference today is that the tariffs are actually even higher than they were back in 1930.
Moreover, US reputation has been obliterated globally and no one trusts us anymore. That will take decades to fix. Some may say who cares, but we should very much care. Europeans are not idiots, and Trump has brought the EU closer together than they have ever been and they won’t just simply roll over. China, Japan, South Korea forming an anti US coalition…who would have ever imagined that could actually happen? There are literally no 2 countries that hate each other more than Japan and China and yet Trump has managed to be a matchmaker making them best buds now and against us. Can’t be surprised when you pick a fight and end up getting punched in the face…
As an aside, it will be a real quiet summer out west this year with the lack of tourists from abroad. International bookings have totally collapsed already. I feel sorry for the small towns and small businesses near National Parks that will take an absolute beating this summer from a lack of Europeans, Asians and Canadians. That’s just one small example of real consequences that are already happening.

If you believe it’s going to take 25 years to recover you should take @Sytes bet!!! I want someone to!

 

[cgasner1]

 

[noharleyyet]

Time to short pejorative cliches . . .

 

[mtmiller]

self inflicted

 

[Bonasababy]

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I sure hope you are rushing out to buy these

 

[Bonasababy]

Last I saw the Trump Coin was down around 70% in the last month.

 

[stealthy_bowman]

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Actually, both the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ are now 20% off their highs in just a matter of weeks. The S&P is sure to follow and then the DOW. We’re in free fall dude, this isn’t your garden variety correction due to normal economic ebbs and flows. As one analyst put it, this is “Economic Armageddon” and is totally self inflicted.

 

[Bonasababy]

Don’t wanna talk about that 25% time line huh?

My point--if you want to gamble on it turning around, feel free to do so! Might be nice if we could revisit it in a few months--or whatever period of start of recovery you expect to see.

 

[SAJ-99]

carry on...

 

[SAJ-99]

Someone woke up the Senate

Bipartisan senators' bill would require Congress to approve new tariffs

Sens. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., introduced the Trade Review Act of 2025 after President Donald Trump's new tariff strategy.

www.foxnews.com

But I think we found another way out...

 

[Beignet]

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That bear market was a slow trickle. It’s didn’t al happen in a week. The S&P’s worst week in 2022 was -5.79% (6/17/22). If the markets closed right now the S&P would be down ~7% on the week.

Heck, in ‘08 when Lehman collapsed the S&P closed up 0.59%. Losses the following week were still -3.35%. S&P has beat that today alone.

Sure, these are anecdotes unrelated to the recent decline, but go to show that there’s still possibly a lot of room to go down. There hasn’t even been a full week of trading since these tariffs were announced.

There is always a chance this gambit is a success, but when 9.99 out of 10 economists have been saying “don’t do that, here’s why” I have my doubts.*

*That evidence is a very unscientific number that I invented. However, I’m pretty sure the 0.01 that’s pro-blanket tariff is really just a golden retriever named Economist.

 

[Knighted]

I'm stuck right now on a rental property decision.... I was going to 1031 it, but now I'm mathing out if it makes more sense to sell and drop in the market for a year or two.

Real estate values usually hold up ok during high inflation if that's something you think may happen.

 

[brymoore]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jpmorgan-now-says-theres-a-60-chance-of-a-recession-after-tariff-hikes-a130b3e8

JP Morgan increases chances of a recession to 60%.

 

[mtmiller]

I think Trump said "recession will never happen". At least I think that is what he said, it was breezy and he was a pretty far away on the back nine.

 

[utah400elk]

I am two years from retirement and my accounts are pretty close to following the S&P average…not exact but close. I know I might miss out on an upswing but…I am comfortable with my CFO’s plan!

 

[stealthy_bowman]

Wtf are they smoking? Must be real real good…

 

[sclancy27]

Someone woke up the Senate

Bipartisan senators' bill would require Congress to approve new tariffs

Sens. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., introduced the Trade Review Act of 2025 after President Donald Trump's new tariff strategy.

www.foxnews.com

But I think we found another way out...

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This honestly makes me want to like the tariffs "plan". Congress doesn't really seem to vote for anything these days unless it's a financial incentive for them.