Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
- Start date
Brymoore? Where do you project the market to be in three years? You're an analyst, to a degree.
npaden
Well-known member
If he wanted to actually get some takers on the wager he would need to set a target at a reasonable amount higher than it is today. Run each of those indexes forward 3 years with a 5% return and you have the S&P500 at 6,247, the DOW at 46,936 and the NASDAQ at 19,159.
Throw a straight up bet for the S&P500 at 6,250 the DOW at 47,000 or the NASDAQ at 19,000. That would be something legitimate to let people put their money where their mouth is.
Throw a straight up bet for the S&P500 at 6,250 the DOW at 47,000 or the NASDAQ at 19,000. That would be something legitimate to let people put their money where their mouth is.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
I think there is a lot to that theory. Interestingly, about 7-10 years ago, APPL traded at an average market multiple for a long time. It was the largest company in the world and everyone said there was no way it should trade at a higher multiple. Then it traded at 40x, so go figure
...BTW, my "bets" have donated several hundreds of $'s towards conservation within these, "bets". - One of the key aspects why WE are members of Hunt Talk. My wife has donated several hundreds of dollars in her crafting for our conservation efforts within our events that Randy has 100% supported, including specific support for ACTION to support and promote conservation efforts versus the majority who talk...
BuzzH
Well-known member
Me too, but the self inflicted nonsense is ridiculous.Easy $, right? Someone who believes we are doomed, It is your $250 to my $500. Easy money if your yammer meets your $. I am betting on the market - THAT is the essence of the market.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Your bet is a better structure. The original bet was placed on the other thread and was essentially a bet against the adaptability of the US corporation, which no sane person should ever take. And 3 yrs? Seriously? Trump could come out tomorrow and say something to reverse this whole thing. Anyone want to bet the SPY hits new ATH highs before year-end? Down 12.5% since the Feb high.
The summary point of the other thread was look at your portfolio and the holdings of international stocks over US. If you did that, you were a relative winner today as the dollar got crushed. EEM -2.1% EFA -2.1% SPY -4.9.
I’m not an analyst but I read various economic reports for my job.
Got me what the market will be in three years but probability analysis says positive. It’s a bet against America to say negative. An almost depression would have to occur.
This year we’ll be lucky to break even. I haven’t seen an updated report yet but the chance of a recession is going to rise above 50%. The economy has been kicked off the rails. Consumers are lowering spending due to the shocks from the administration. Increased prices from the trade war aren’t going to help either.
2025 might be an 20+% plus market drop if we do slip into a recession. (I hope we don’t for my own greedy reasons). If the tariffs remain in place, two years negative is possible. Three years negative has only happened three times in the last hundred years. I don’t think it’ll happen. Something will force a change.
Tough side of this, I am under a mandatory retirement come end of 2028. The timing could not be worse for, what I anticipate, to be a recession - though IMO, I believe as soon as Congress places enough pressure on the current executive administration, the relief will continue to be felt, globally. Thus pulled my main body of funds into gov and International with my current TSP (gov 401k) contributions entering the C and S market.
I make 1.7 for every year vs the average Fed employee's 1%. Hence my mandatory retirement. Though again, timing wise - this is a bitch. Haha!
It almost paints a picture of a person versus the actions of America... Though that is simply my two cents and that of my current Canadian neighbors. They are absolutely annoyed with Musk, as Canada has turned strong towards EV's and that HAD Musks' name as the holy grail. No mas, and again, IMO, I believe most of the world look at this as a person vs United States.
I make 1.7 for every year vs the average Fed employee's 1%. Hence my mandatory retirement. Though again, timing wise - this is a bitch. Haha!
It almost paints a picture of a person versus the actions of America... Though that is simply my two cents and that of my current Canadian neighbors. They are absolutely annoyed with Musk, as Canada has turned strong towards EV's and that HAD Musks' name as the holy grail. No mas, and again, IMO, I believe most of the world look at this as a person vs United States.
Great read for those who appreciate BRK, Buffett.
BuzzH
Well-known member
I sure hope the S&P hits 6250 in 3 years, it was just February that it hit 6144.
#winning?
More like #whatajoke.
I find it interesting that gold is outperforming most currently. I also like to note islands of green in the sea of red in the ticker.
United health is doing good.
Costco
I put money into WM. Waste management! Might be a gold mine of its own cleaning up the mess. Who would have thought?
United health is doing good.
Costco
I put money into WM. Waste management! Might be a gold mine of its own cleaning up the mess. Who would have thought?
Bastards are making money! They raised my monthly rate by $20 a couple months ago. Contract is up this summer and I'm telling them to piss off.
npaden
Well-known member
Might as well go back to November 3rd when it was 5,712. Still higher than close today.
For those who follow Friedman, remember his view on what causes inflation.
Economist Milton Friedman famously stated, "Inflation is made in Washington," attributing the root cause to excessive government spending and money creation. His insight remains relevant today as debates intensify over fiscal policies fueling inflationary pressures.
So, spending $2T more per year than you bring in, $1T on interest a year, with $36T+ in debt......might be the main cause of inflation, not tariffs.
Trump, history will tell if right or wrong in the long run, is trying to get spending back down to acceptable levels - the massive jump in gov't spending the past few years is not sustainable.
Economist Milton Friedman famously stated, "Inflation is made in Washington," attributing the root cause to excessive government spending and money creation. His insight remains relevant today as debates intensify over fiscal policies fueling inflationary pressures.
So, spending $2T more per year than you bring in, $1T on interest a year, with $36T+ in debt......might be the main cause of inflation, not tariffs.
Trump, history will tell if right or wrong in the long run, is trying to get spending back down to acceptable levels - the massive jump in gov't spending the past few years is not sustainable.
stealthy_bowman
Well-known member
I’d like to see someone give a real cogent argument as to where they actually see an economic upside here that would lead to a market recovery…And please don’t say by bringing manufacturing back as that is a multi year effort that realistically takes much longer than the 4 years this administration, if we even want to call it that, has.
Let’s face it, none of us alive have ever seen anything like this before. Last time tariffs like this were inplemented it ended up taking the stock market 25 years to recover, yes 25 years. The difference today is that the tariffs are actually even higher than they were back in 1930.
Moreover, US reputation has been obliterated globally and no one trusts us anymore. That will take decades to fix. Some may say who cares, but we should very much care. Europeans are not idiots, and Trump has brought the EU closer together than they have ever been and they won’t just simply roll over. China, Japan, South Korea forming an anti US coalition…who would have ever imagined that could actually happen? There are literally no 2 countries that hate each other more than Japan and China and yet Trump has managed to be a matchmaker making them best buds now and against us. Can’t be surprised when you pick a fight and end up getting punched in the face…
As an aside, it will be a real quiet summer out west this year with the lack of tourists from abroad. International bookings have totally collapsed already. I feel sorry for the small towns and small businesses near National Parks that will take an absolute beating this summer from a lack of Europeans, Asians and Canadians. That’s just one small example of real consequences that are already happening.
Let’s face it, none of us alive have ever seen anything like this before. Last time tariffs like this were inplemented it ended up taking the stock market 25 years to recover, yes 25 years. The difference today is that the tariffs are actually even higher than they were back in 1930.
Moreover, US reputation has been obliterated globally and no one trusts us anymore. That will take decades to fix. Some may say who cares, but we should very much care. Europeans are not idiots, and Trump has brought the EU closer together than they have ever been and they won’t just simply roll over. China, Japan, South Korea forming an anti US coalition…who would have ever imagined that could actually happen? There are literally no 2 countries that hate each other more than Japan and China and yet Trump has managed to be a matchmaker making them best buds now and against us. Can’t be surprised when you pick a fight and end up getting punched in the face…
As an aside, it will be a real quiet summer out west this year with the lack of tourists from abroad. International bookings have totally collapsed already. I feel sorry for the small towns and small businesses near National Parks that will take an absolute beating this summer from a lack of Europeans, Asians and Canadians. That’s just one small example of real consequences that are already happening.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
You are abusing Friedman’s work. It is excessive money supply that causes inflation. Borrowing does not directly increase money supply.
Bonasababy
Well-known member
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Both Vanguard and Fidelity reps talked me into their belief that the relative value of international was going to outpace US back last fall. Glad I listened to them it's helped weather the storm some.
Bonasababy
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Heard some words from an auto industry guy this evening. His cogent point--who would contribute serious resources to expanding or creating new production here in the states? Trump has shown in both words and actual actions he might change direction tomorrow!
R and D and expansion of production and manufacturing--is based on long term assumptions--not the day to day, week to week, uncertainty that this administration is creating.
R and D and expansion of production and manufacturing--is based on long term assumptions--not the day to day, week to week, uncertainty that this administration is creating.
westbranch
Well-known member
Where/when has Trump tried to get spending down to acceptable levels?
