Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[TakeABreakAndTouchGrass]

P.S. I'm confident enough in this that I haven't pulled the trigger on a TQQQ trade yet today.

Don't worry, you convinced me. Dumped my whole IRA into TQQQ today.


Kidding, but did do my IRA contribution early this month to buy a handful of shares for the long term.

 

[TOGIE]

Will be easy to see who is right and who was wrong on this one. I'm saying at least a 1% bounce back tomorrow. I might be wrong but think it is going to happen. This is an overreaction. Apple is down 10% because of a 10% tarriff? They will price it in and the consumer gets to pay more. It's not going to hurt the stock 10%.

We won't know who is right and who is wrong for a while I think. I kinda think any optimism left in the market is there because the odds do exist the Grand Liberation could turn into the Grand Pivot with the orchestrator claiming massive wins in negotiations that may or may not have even occurred OR congress finally can't take it anymore and steps in. I'd almost put higher odds on the latter to be honest.

but should this play out unabated, i personally don't see how we're not at the very beginning of a fairly severe and protracted bear market.

 

[Sytes]

Great deals on quality companies, thus sayeth the Oracle of Omaha.

 

[BuzzH]

Will be easy to see who is right and who was wrong on this one. I'm saying at least a 1% bounce back tomorrow. I might be wrong but think it is going to happen. This is an overreaction. Apple is down 10% because of a 10% tarriff? They will price it in and the consumer gets to pay more. It's not going to hurt the stock 10%.

It's fantasyland for sure, possibly still denial. A "win" is now defined as a 3-5% two day loss? Wow, just WOW!

There's no logical defense of this horseshit.

 

[npaden]

It's fantasyland for sure, possibly still denial. A "win" is now defined as a 3-5% two day loss? Wow, just WOW!

There's no logical defense of this horseshit.

You said I was in denial when I said it was going to bounce back tomorrow. I said it was going to bounce back.

I state that we will know the answer to if it is going to bounce back or not tomorrow. I didn't say it was going to bounce all the way back.

Somehow I'm in fantasy land. I never said any of this was a "win". No idea where you come up with this stuff. Wow, just WOW!

 

[BuzzH]

You said I was in denial when I said it was going to bounce back tomorrow. I said it was going to bounce back.

I state that we will know the answer to if it is going to bounce back or not tomorrow. I didn't say it was going to bounce all the way back.

Somehow I'm in fantasy land. I never said any of this was a "win". No idea where you come up with this stuff. Wow, just WOW!

Absolute and total denial now.

 

[npaden]

Absolute and total denial now.

LOL. Keep up the doublespeak and talking in circles. If anyone tries to pin you down claim that they are the ones in denial. Makes total sense.

If the market doesn't bounce tomorrow I'll eat crow. If the market does bounce tomorrow somehow you will claim we are all living in fantasy land and it really didn't happen.

 

[BuzzH]

LOL. Keep up the doublespeak and talking in circles. If anyone tries to pin you down claim that they are the ones in denial. Makes total sense.

If the market doesn't bounce tomorrow I'll eat crow. If the market does bounce tomorrow somehow you will claim we are all living in fantasy land and it really didn't happen.

Oh awesome a 1% bounce with a 4-5% two day loss... you're already plucking the crow.

 

[npaden]

Oh awesome a 1% bounce with a 4-5% two day loss... you're already plucking the crow.

I think you are in the wrong thread. Go to one of your other political threads if you want to stir the pot. This thread is discussing market performance. We try to guess which stocks to buy and when to buy them. I posted that this might be a buying opportunity. No political slant, not saying tariffs are good or bad, just a statement that it might be a good time to buy.

You keep talking about winning and two day losses, we all can see what the market did today, we are trying to decide what the market is going to do tomorrow. You swoop in like a buzzard and try to crap on things after the fact like you know what you are talking about. If the market is down again tomorrow I will eat my crow. If it is up tomorrow you will come up with some fairy tale excuse.

 

[BuzzH]

I think you are in the wrong thread. Go to one of your other political threads if you want to stir the pot. This thread is discussing market performance. We try to guess which stocks to buy and when to buy them. I posted that this might be a buying opportunity. No political slant, not saying tariffs are good or bad, just a statement that it might be a good time to buy.

You keep talking about winning and two day losses, we all can see what the market did today, we are trying to decide what the market is going to do tomorrow. You swoop in like a buzzard and try to crap on things after the fact like you know what you are talking about. If the market is down again tomorrow I will eat my crow. If it is up tomorrow you will come up with some fairy tale excuse.

Uhhh, I think the pot has already been stirred today to the tune of a couple trillion. It's an expensive stir of the pot.

Good "luck" tomorrow.

 

[TakeABreakAndTouchGrass]

I think there will be a full recovery (plus interest!) in the morning but I could be wrong. I think there will be some improvement throughout the day.

I generally never try to time the market but this makes me want to throw some play money at it.

FIFY, apparently since that is what you are being forced to argue against.

 

[SAJ-99]

Will be easy to see who is right and who was wrong on this one. I'm saying at least a 1% bounce back tomorrow. I might be wrong but think it is going to happen. This is an overreaction. Apple is down 10% because of a 10% tarriff? They will price it in and the consumer gets to pay more. It's not going to hurt the stock 10%.

You can make a pretty good argument that Apple is still expensive at a 30x trailing PE. For all these companies we have to figure out the earnings, the growth rate, and multiple, The multiple clearly has to be lower because of all the unknowns. Market as a whole is still expensive if we see a recession.

 

[Sytes]

For sky is falling members of the esteemed throne marketeers, my offer still stands based on today's market vs three years from today. You hold your money, I hold mine. Three years from now, as Trump is still in Office (unless his mouth impeaches himself), he, according to many here, will destroy our stock market value.

Talk is cheap. Place your $ where your mouth is and tell me you told me so in public come that three year time. Or... keep stroking your keys. This is not intended for the majority that are doing what is necessary to secure funds. No doubt we are in for a ride. IMO, Three years from now, our market will be higher than it is today. This is specific to the extremes that believe Trump will destroy our market, lead us into a depression or whatever chicken little extreme story your Google AI created newsfeed continues to feed you.

Oracle of Omaha, Greed sell. Fear buy. My own setting for gov TSP, One month ago, shift my bulk to G, 70 or 75% and I, 25 or 30% with my continued TSP contributions entering the C and S market to catch stock prices as they dip - and rise eventually above today's value within three years...

My $500 towards your $250. I'll take my $500 lumps if the market is not better than today and you take your $250 lumps if the market is better than today. 04/02/2028.

Amazing a few alarmists, extremists though not one person here to call me out. Those that read these extremist Hunt Talk posts, the crickets speaks volumes.

As said, the first two public posts, I'll accept. I've shown my word is true. I've personally given several hundreds of dollars towards the Auction and Conservation events. How about your word?

 

[Big Sky Guy]

For sky is falling members of the esteemed throne marketeers, my offer still stands based on today's market vs three years from today. You hold your money, I hold mine. Three years from now, as Trump is still in Office (unless his mouth impeaches himself), he, according to many here, will destroy our stock market value.

Talk is cheap. Place your $ where your mouth is and tell me you told me so in public come that three year time. Or... keep stroking your keys. This is not intended for the majority that are doing what is necessary to secure funds. No doubt we are in for a ride. IMO, Three years from now, our market will be higher than it is today. This is specific to the extremes that believe Trump will destroy our market, lead us into a depression or whatever chicken little extreme story your Google AI created newsfeed continues to feed you.

Oracle of Omaha, Greed sell. Fear buy. My own setting for gov TSP, One month ago, shift my bulk to G, 70 or 75% and I, 25 or 30% with my continued TSP contributions entering the C and S market to catch stock prices as they dip - and rise eventually above today's value within three years...

My $500 towards your $250. I'll take my $500 lumps if the market is not better than today and you take your $250 lumps if the market is better than today. 04/02/2028.

Amazing a few alarmists, extremists though not one person here to call me out. Those that read these extremist Hunt Talk posts, the crickets speaks volumes.

As said, the first two public posts, I'll accept. I've shown my word is true. I've personally given several hundreds of dollars towards the Auction and Conservation events. How about your word?

View attachment 366655

I appreciate your enthusiasm to quell the sky is falling crowd.

However, as a casual observer, doesn't the further the market go down make this bet more likely/probably for you, but you make this post as if it's more likely for the bettor? (i.e. if S&P goes sub 5k, or heck, even sub 4k, seems few would think it would be that or lower in THREE years)?

What am I missing?

 

[TakeABreakAndTouchGrass]

I appreciate your enthusiasm to quell the sky is falling crowd.

However, as a casual observer, doesn't the further the market go down make this bet more likely/probably for you, but you make this post as if it's more likely for the bettor? (i.e. if S&P goes sub 5k, or heck, even sub 4k, seems few would think it would be that or lower in THREE years)?

What am I missing?

Then the sooner they take his offer the better

 

[Southern Elk]

For sky is falling members of the esteemed throne marketeers, my offer still stands based on today's market vs three years from today. You hold your money, I hold mine. Three years from now, as Trump is still in Office (unless his mouth impeaches himself), he, according to many here, will destroy our stock market value.

Talk is cheap. Place your $ where your mouth is and tell me you told me so in public come that three year time. Or... keep stroking your keys. This is not intended for the majority that are doing what is necessary to secure funds. No doubt we are in for a ride. IMO, Three years from now, our market will be higher than it is today. This is specific to the extremes that believe Trump will destroy our market, lead us into a depression or whatever chicken little extreme story your Google AI created newsfeed continues to feed you.

Oracle of Omaha, Greed sell. Fear buy. My own setting for gov TSP, One month ago, shift my bulk to G, 70 or 75% and I, 25 or 30% with my continued TSP contributions entering the C and S market to catch stock prices as they dip - and rise eventually above today's value within three years...

My $500 towards your $250. I'll take my $500 lumps if the market is not better than today and you take your $250 lumps if the market is better than today. 04/02/2028.

Amazing a few alarmists, extremists though not one person here to call me out. Those that read these extremist Hunt Talk posts, the crickets speaks volumes.

As said, the first two public posts, I'll accept. I've shown my word is true. I've personally given several hundreds of dollars towards the Auction and Conservation events. How about your word?

View attachment 366655

Good ole Sytes. Always looking to make bet.

 

[schmalts]

You can make a pretty good argument that Apple is still expensive at a 30x trailing PE. For all these companies we have to figure out the earnings, the growth rate, and multiple, The multiple clearly has to be lower because of all the unknowns. Market as a whole is still expensive if we see a recession.

It was expensive no matter what. But I also have come to change my thinking that P/E ratios have been way too high for a couple years because of the death of pensions replaced with 401k's that have a flood of money every payday.

 

[Sytes]

I appreciate your enthusiasm to quell the sky is falling crowd.

However, as a casual observer, doesn't the further the market go down make this bet more likely/probably for you, but you make this post as if it's more likely for the bettor? (i.e. if S&P goes sub 5k, or heck, even sub 4k, seems few would think it would be that or lower in THREE years)?

What am I missing?

I agree, the further it goes down... I am not pre-dating. If it continues to go down, the three years holds true - still three years from the value it current resides.

People yap or people can place their $ where their mouth is. A lot of yapping over Trump's destruction of our economy.

 

[Sytes]

Good ole Sytes. Always looking to make bet.

Easy $, right? Someone who believes we are doomed, It is your $250 to my $500. Easy money if your yammer meets your $. I am betting on the market - THAT is the essence of the market.

 

[Irrelevant]

I've joked that I would love for tech stocks to tank and be able to by more shares at a reduced price. I'm not sure I actually want that, but it looks like I'll get my wish. But it's not that great, we're only going back to like May of last year, so far...