Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[jryoung]

SOUN (purchased @ $6) followed by PLTR (purchased @ $40) are in our "elder" nest egg funds. Soundhound was on a ride and dropped to a point I may pick up another bite size.

I'm in SOUN @$2 and had a load of PLTR @ $6 and sold it all at $80. In another account I'm in PLTR @ $23......been a fun ride.

 

[SAJ-99]

I'll give you a couple hints. TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, PLTR. AI is in inning 2 right now. We don't even know a fraction of the possible applications.

Real group of sleeper stocks there. Just saying that Wall Street is a hype machine. Be careful of the price. Maybe it is the second inning, but don't pay for the next 6 innings of earnings growth. My issue is that society can't adapt as fast as WS wants it to. Jobs will be created and replaced, but it has to be at a pace that can be accepted.

 

[FREAK]

@SJ

Real group of sleeper stocks there. Just saying that Wall Street is a hype machine. Be careful of the price. Maybe it is the second inning, but don't pay for the next 6 innings of earnings growth. My issue is that society can't adapt as fast as WS wants it to. Jobs will be created and replaced, but it has to be at a pace that can be accepted.

I’m with Dan Ives on this one. I think it was one of the better entries in the last 3 years. It’s high risk but you know what can come with that. Not for everyone.

 

[jryoung]

Real group of sleeper stocks there. Just saying that Wall Street is a hype machine. Be careful of the price. Maybe it is the second inning, but don't pay for the next 6 innings of earnings growth. My issue is that society can't adapt as fast as WS wants it to. Jobs will be created and replaced, but it has to be at a pace that can be accepted.

I think that note dovetails with edge AI. I don't think consumers in particular will be as fast to adopt or desire AI devices as commercial will.

 

[SAJ-99]

@SJ

I’m with Dan Ives on this one. I think it was one of the better entries in the last 3 years. It’s high risk but you know what can come with that. Not for everyone.

You post a link to a video that simply highlights the hype machine - CNBC, Dan Ives, Nancy Tangler are prime components. Just keep in mind that typically those giving opinions get paid whether they are right or wrong. I like to hear portfolio managers, ideally those that can go long and short, give a view. Even then, I proceed with caution.

This was better and more objective.

 

[LousyResident]

I think that note dovetails with edge AI. I don't think consumers in particular will be as fast to adopt or desire AI devices as commercial will.

I don't think the average consumer will even know they are benefitting from AI directly. Any consumer product that advertises AI doesn't seem to use it for any reasonably important component. On the flip side, the breakthroughs that AI makes, particularly as it pertains to the speed of discovery, implementation, and adaption, of medical and scientific research will be huge for businesses. It's going to speed up competition and, hopefully, lower barriers of entry for new businesses since having some wise old sage will be less and less important when you can buy an AI tool that replicates 100+ years of experience in any particular industry.

I'm just spouting personal opinion, not based on exhaustive research or anything. But I think the biggest impact of AI for the average day to day consumer will be if their particular job gets replaced by AI. Otherwise, it will be mostly abstract except for fancier internet interactions lol.

 

[NDGuy]

If this lasts this is something to watch.

White House pauses all federal grants, sowing alarm

The order is "a potential five-alarm fire" for organizations that serve communities, nonprofit group executive says.

www.bbc.com

 

[Gulf of America]

If this lasts this is something to watch.

White House pauses all federal grants, sowing alarm

The order is "a potential five-alarm fire" for organizations that serve communities, nonprofit group executive says.

www.bbc.com

Ignoring the constitutional issues with the refusal to honor obligations made by the legislative branch, there's a lot of concern on the infrastructure side about projects that are supposed to be entering construction phase and suddenly don't have their grant funding. The potential ramifications if this doesn't shake out pretty quickly are massive.

 

[rogerthat]

Ignoring the constitutional issues with the refusal to honor obligations made by the legislative branch, there's a lot of concern on the infrastructure side about projects that are supposed to be entering construction phase and suddenly don't have their grant funding. The potential ramifications if this doesn't shake out pretty quickly are massive.

Are there really many infrastructure projects done via grants and agreements? I would think most of those would be direct federal contracting actions.

 

[NDGuy]

Are there really many infrastructure projects done via grants and agreements? I would think most of those would be direct federal contracting actions.

Link to affected programs

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000194-ad9c-de9c-a5b6-efbd29400000

 

[Gulf of America]

Are there really many infrastructure projects done via grants and agreements? I would think most of those would be direct federal contracting actions.

Tons of them. I work for the Dept of Transportation and program managers seek grant funding any time they can, as it avoids state match for projects and we can get more out in a year. I'm working on a $50M dollar project with $25M in grant funding.

Edit to add: https://www.transportation.gov/BUILDgrants

The RAISE grant is $1.5B in 2025 for infrastructure projects. That's just one grant program.

 

[LousyResident]

Link to affected programs

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000194-ad9c-de9c-a5b6-efbd29400000

There is zero reason to include all those blank columns and not expand the section to include what each grant actually does. What a useless spreadsheet. It's almost like it's intentionally indigestible.

 

[LousyResident]

If this lasts this is something to watch.

White House pauses all federal grants, sowing alarm

The order is "a potential five-alarm fire" for organizations that serve communities, nonprofit group executive says.

www.bbc.com

Also, "pauses" instead of "cancels"?

 

[Gulf of America]

Also, "pauses" instead of "cancels"?

All depends on the length of the pause. There are reports of cancer research projects being halted due to funding pauses, but I generally agree with your sentiment that if this is just a week-long pause, probably not that big a deal. If it's months, big deal. Again on the infrastructure side, projects that are being let to construction this season have been planned to be let this season for years. The state has to use every dollar of federal funding it can get or it loses it, and if a grant is partially funding the project, that project goes away and so does the non-grant funding that was obligated to it unless you have another project ready to slot in. The states that would be hit hardest by that are rural states that get way more money from the feds than they put in, ie red states.

You can search your state in the spreadsheet on this page and see what projects are at risk. https://www.transportation.gov/RAISEgrants/all_award_map_data
Not a ton in MT for 2025, but there are some years where dropping one of the projects would be devastating.

 

[SAJ-99]

Also, "pauses" instead of "cancels"?

View attachment 358614

Already blocked by Federal judge. So do you care now?

 

[LousyResident]

Already blocked by Federal judge. So do you care now?

Even less.

Edited to add: I generally trust the federal judges to keep things between the lines. Not 100%, but generally. That's part of the reason "I don't care" during the initial panic.

 

[Sytes]

I'm in SOUN @$2 and had a load of PLTR @ $6 and sold it all at $80.

Now that's a win! Whoa!

Re SOUN. Thoughts of the current SOUN? Been back and forth on collecting more though the CES lackluster presentation has me on edge.. DeepSeek bypassing OpenAI - Then read Cramer's take on it and he's tossed it in the meme category that had a short squeeze thus the pop over $20.
I'm still over double w/ a good amount of shares shares (hobby play)
Moved PLTR over to our main account holding account and was going to followup with SOUN though on the fence leaning towards sell.

 

[jryoung]

In about another week my SOUN my holdings will be long term so I need to reconsider, likely to sell if they get above 15 again, I don't have that much exposure so maybe worth a gamble since I locked in some solid gains on PLTR that I have on the sidelines right now.

 

[SAJ-99]

Even less.

Edited to add: I generally trust the federal judges to keep things between the lines. Not 100%, but generally. That's part of the reason "I don't care" during the initial panic.

Agree. Very little clarity at the announcement, which probably explains the panic. I assume this is because we are dealing with people with no experience in running a government.

I did notice the CRP and WRP were on the list. Directly applicable in the Public Lands section more than here.

 

[Sytes]

I'm in SOUN @$2 and had a load of PLTR @ $6 and sold it all at $80. In another account I'm in PLTR @ $23......been a fun ride.

Of course an article can be found to fit any person's hope, though found this an interesting read.

https://moneymorning.com/2025/01/27/suggestion-1-down-40-is-this-striking-ai-stock-about-to-plunge-again/amp/