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Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

If only the Fed Reserve was to serve the public...
The Congress rolled, non governmental Mexican stem/seed weed our Republic relies upon.

Funny thing, that Fed Reserve. More hangovers than tranquility.
 
It is local farmers buying. Most of them have much different goals/outlook on the land vs. investor groups. Most of the buyers already have large amounts of paid off land, 2022 profits are >$1,000/acre on owned land with current corn and soybean prices. They don't like other investments so buying more land that they plan to have in the family as generational wealth makes sense to them. Still will be some that it won't work out for.
This is one of the ones I was talking about. Sounds sketchy, haven't really looked deep into it.

https://acretrader.com/?utm_feedite...a_mt=e&hsa_src=g&hsa_ad=384000070306&hsa_acc={838-533-0258}&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_kw=acretrader&hsa_tgt=kwd-527140990497&hsa_ver=3&cq_plac=&cq_net=g&cq_pos=&cq_med=&cq_plt=gp&placement=&utm_term=acretrader&utm_term=acretrader&utm_campaign=Branded_Terms&utm_source=google&utm_medium=ppc&utm_content=384000070306&hsa_acc=8385330258&hsa_cam=1705788887&hsa_grp=65460969046&hsa_ad=384000070306&hsa_src=g&hsa_tgt=kwd-527140990497&hsa_kw=acretrader&hsa_mt=e&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gclid=Cj0KCQiAsdKbBhDHARIsANJ6-jd5bPgs3noEwR6mKK9OYreZc8pF7UAB6A2vBtRIbbnhujkVwl9iaTQaAkUQEALw_wcB
 
This is one of the ones I was talking about. Sounds sketchy, haven't really looked deep into it.

https://acretrader.com/?utm_feedite...a_mt=e&hsa_src=g&hsa_ad=384000070306&hsa_acc={838-533-0258}&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_kw=acretrader&hsa_tgt=kwd-527140990497&hsa_ver=3&cq_plac=&cq_net=g&cq_pos=&cq_med=&cq_plt=gp&placement=&utm_term=acretrader&utm_term=acretrader&utm_campaign=Branded_Terms&utm_source=google&utm_medium=ppc&utm_content=384000070306&hsa_acc=8385330258&hsa_cam=1705788887&hsa_grp=65460969046&hsa_ad=384000070306&hsa_src=g&hsa_tgt=kwd-527140990497&hsa_kw=acretrader&hsa_mt=e&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gclid=Cj0KCQiAsdKbBhDHARIsANJ6-jd5bPgs3noEwR6mKK9OYreZc8pF7UAB6A2vBtRIbbnhujkVwl9iaTQaAkUQEALw_wcB

I have looked at that before and had made an account to get more details. Doesn't seem terrible for someone looking to have portion of their portfolio in farmland/real estate. Need to be an "accredited" investor so I am sure it is mainly selling to high net worth people. Would be interesting to know if they have advisor relationships and what those fees are. No interest from me.

Saw some good looking Palouse farmland listed recently for about $3,300/acre. Couldn't dig enough change out of the couch cushions to make an offer on it.
 
Has anybody ever looked into https://arrivedhomes.com/

How do they handle depreciation?

I have not seen that one, but based on a quick perusal it looks like they are structured as a REIT, but not a publicly traded REIT (like Potlatch or similar).

It looks like the Acre Trader investments has a partnership structure, so investors would receive a K-1 that would show the share of income/expense. There are also Delaware Statutory Trusts (mainly for 1031s) that use substitute reporting forms for the pass through income/expenses.
 
If only the Fed Reserve was to serve the public...
The Congress rolled, non governmental Mexican stem/seed weed our Republic relies upon.

Funny thing, that Fed Reserve. More hangovers than tranquility.
Based on what measure? Effectiveness of the Federal reserve since its creation can be debated, but I sure hope you are not basing your view on the last 40yrs because it just doesn't hold up.

The Fed does serve the public, but the public isn't a homogenous group. Financial asset prices going up doesn't really impact the vast majority of Americans. Rising food and energy prices does, but I still am not convinced that the Fed is solely to blame for that because I am still hearing a lot of problems with global supply chains.
 
I have looked at that before and had made an account to get more details. Doesn't seem terrible for someone looking to have portion of their portfolio in farmland/real estate. Need to be an "accredited" investor so I am sure it is mainly selling to high net worth people. Would be interesting to know if they have advisor relationships and what those fees are. No interest from me.
Saw some good looking Palouse farmland listed recently for about $3,300/acre. Couldn't dig enough change out of the couch cushions to make an offer on it.
They are not making anymore productive Palouse farm ground. Sounds like a missed opportunity.

I looked hard into this property when it came on the market 100 days ago. It had 1 unusual complicating issue that made me hold off making an offer. It went under contract right away but it still hasn't closed, so it may end up back on the market. Properties are not selling like they did 1 1/2 years ago and prices are being reduced. I think it will turn into a buyers market sooner than later where I'm looking.
 
They are not making anymore productive Palouse farm ground. Sounds like a missed opportunity.

I looked hard into this property when it came on the market 100 days ago. It had 1 unusual complicating issue that made me hold off making an offer. It went under contract right away but it still hasn't closed, so it may end up back on the market. Properties are not selling like they did 1 1/2 years ago and prices are being reduced. I think it will turn into a buyers market sooner than later where I'm looking.
BHR, you becoming a beet farmer? Never saw it coming.
 
BHR, you becoming a beet farmer? Never saw it coming.
Wife likes cows. Hay, forage, and seed crop from sainfoin is one possibility.
 
They are not making anymore productive Palouse farm ground. Sounds like a missed opportunity.

I looked hard into this property when it came on the market 100 days ago. It had 1 unusual complicating issue that made me hold off making an offer. It went under contract right away but it still hasn't closed, so it may end up back on the market. Properties are not selling like they did 1 1/2 years ago and prices are being reduced. I think it will turn into a buyers market sooner than later where I'm looking.

Over 600 acres so total sales price was about $2.3M. I'll have to keep looking :(
 
Wife likes cows. Hay, forage, and seed crop from sainfoin is one possibility.
You should try to switch her to diamonds. It would be cheaper than cows.
 
Week ahead, find a good bearing of anticipated events:

"Investors face a holiday-shortened next week that could see lighter trading volume. The highlight of the economic calendar looks be the release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. While that meeting took place before the release of the October CPI report, the market could see a jolt when hawkish tone of members is seen in black and white. Earnings will still trickle in with Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and DICK's Sporting Goods (DKS) from the consumer sector some of the headliners. Watch for some cautious guidance updates with plenty of macro uncertainty in the air. On Wall Street, Citi U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert has already warned of a "consumer-led recession" in 2023, which could be amplified even more if the retail heavyweights continue to reel in expectations. On the global stage, the World Cup could have impact on certain sectors and select stocks as the soccer tournament plays out."

Credit:


Interesting as I've played BBY and it worked great however, DKS - have always been... DKS. I chose one direction it runs the other. Anyone interested which way I plan to play DKS? IF I DID... It would likely be flat w/o any volatility to pull $ from a day/swing.


Side note: AMZN is looking tempting for mid/long. Thoughts?
 
Week ahead, find a good bearing of anticipated events:

"Investors face a holiday-shortened next week that could see lighter trading volume. The highlight of the economic calendar looks be the release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. While that meeting took place before the release of the October CPI report, the market could see a jolt when hawkish tone of members is seen in black and white. Earnings will still trickle in with Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and DICK's Sporting Goods (DKS) from the consumer sector some of the headliners. Watch for some cautious guidance updates with plenty of macro uncertainty in the air. On Wall Street, Citi U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert has already warned of a "consumer-led recession" in 2023, which could be amplified even more if the retail heavyweights continue to reel in expectations. On the global stage, the World Cup could have impact on certain sectors and select stocks as the soccer tournament plays out."

Credit:


Interesting as I've played BBY and it worked great however, DKS - have always been... DKS. I chose one direction it runs the other. Anyone interested which way I plan to play DKS? IF I DID... It would likely be flat w/o any volatility to pull $ from a day/swing.


Side note: AMZN is looking tempting for mid/long. Thoughts?
Can't really speak to the names, but from a higher level, we are still too expensive at 18X 2023 estimates. My general philosophy here is to step back, moving more to cash and waiting. YOY Q4 earnings growth is forecast to be negative. So this latest bump higher looks like on hope the fed plans a pause. Nothing looks like a "fat-pitch", long, short or otherwise. I'm playing in other markets like commodities and currencies. If you want to make a bet, control risk and cost, for example AMZN bull call spread at rather than straight call because you are paying 4-5% (40 imp vol!) of the price of stk on the option alone for an option that expires in 28days.

Good luck.
 
Can't really speak to the names, but from a higher level, we are still too expensive at 18X 2023 estimates. My general philosophy here is to step back, moving more to cash and waiting. YOY Q4 earnings growth is forecast to be negative. So this latest bump higher looks like on hope the fed plans a pause. Nothing looks like a "fat-pitch", long, short or otherwise. I'm playing in other markets like commodities and currencies. If you want to make a bet, control risk and cost, for example AMZN bull call spread at rather than straight call because you are paying 4-5% (40 imp vol!) of the price of stk on the option alone for an option that expires in 28days.

Good luck.
28 is a tight turn unless deep ITM, call or put. A buddy is good at tight 14/28 plays. Straddles/Iron Condors. Sometimes I'll mirror his actions if I get the same feel for the direction earnings will ride. I'm on the put side of life until I'm convinced otherwise. Usually looking @ 3+ month options. Of course, price contingent. Flip swing+. 🙂 Short plays.

Really liking the Forex for $CAD. 1.34 for $1USD
 
Any bets on Powell tanking the market today? I will guess rally
I don't suspect his message will be any different that what all the members have been saying since last meeting - slow down in rate increases (50bps in Dec) and they will discuss when they need to pause. He will definitely not say the word "pivot". How the market will react is anyones guess.
 
You were right. Somehow market likes 50bp hikes with no target end date. Hard to believe we started the year at 0% and they were buying bonds.
Lol. A broken clock is right twice a day. So far my 2800 bottom on the S&P is looking unlikely
 
Kenetrek Boots

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