Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Irrelevant]

For those of you in cash, at what level would you put that money to work in equities?
@neffa3 you might be waiting a long time for a 60% and 40% drop in those names. However, i have been wrong before.

I didn't explain all that well, but I'll put the money back in if in a year from now there isn't a drop. I was more pissed about missing out on what felt like 2 day down those both experienced this spring. Since I am decades from needing it, I feel I have some wiggle room.

The caveat to that is if the right piece of property came on the market. I've been eyeing a dozen or so pieces of land as upgrades to where we're at. But they likely won't be cheap and don't ever seem to "come on the market" despite changing owners occasionally.

 

[SAJ-99]

Will mostly be in VTI so the Feb high was $172.56 on Feb 19. I sold on Feb 26 at $161. VTI fell then hit low of $109.49 on March 23. Highest price since Feb 19 has been 162.81 on June 10. I am not the smartest guy but have CPA and MBA and am valuing the stock as I would a house. This ignores upward price pressure by "no where else to invest but stocks" and "don't bet against the Fed" so you can be smarter. I think VTI was not worth $172 back in February but owned it so was not complaining. I think VTI is worth more than $110. I doubt the market falls to $100 if there is another pull back this year but could see $130 then back to $160 a year after that. Again, you are smarter than me.

I bought and resold VTI 6 times in the up/down swings and at times was 100% VTI then. I was 80% VTI and 20% BND in February and had been for 4 years other than a single re-balance each January to restore the 80/20 balance. Yes, I am a buy and hold investor but was confident prices would roller coaster for a while once they were moving 5% in a day or two down then up then down then up. I have traded more times this year than in total the past 5 years.

I do not do options. I am not smart enough to do so or maybe am smart enough not to. I figure with equity trades the worst outcome is I overpaid a bit for stock or was not invested so missed an upswing in the stock. I can sleep fine with those outcomes. I sleep great with buy and hold so will head back to that philosophy once the market settles down.

Anyway, if VTI hits 150 I will go 25% VTI.

If hits $140 will go another 25%.

If hits $130 will go all in. If there is a flash crash then will go all in if dips below $130. I have zero need for these funds the next 7 years then will be drawing down 3%. I will sell though at any point if seems is still volatile and I can lock in a $5 or greater price increase after holding a day or more.

At some point if am 100% VTI and the market is calmed down then will shift so pick up 20% BND at the point I feel stocks are relatively high and bonds are low in comparison. Then, likely never trade except the annual rebalancing.

I will likely stop divendend reinvesting in 7 years and use that to fund retirement along with SSI and some other cash flows. As my attorney says, "LopeHunter, you can either start flying First Class or your offspring will once you are gone." I flew First Class to Europe last Thanksgiving. Not impressed though my spouse liked the reclining chair that was flat like a bed so looks like European trips are more expensive for us now. I fly Southwest for 90% of my U.S. travel. Those are my people just like when I am in Walmart.

I have friends that swing for the fences. Entrepreneurs launching start ups. Heck, some could buy and sell me 100 times over. Most can not though have had moments where they were lashed to a rocket when flipping homes or trading options or bitcoins, etc. Life was very good for them. Many have gone BK. At some point when you go all in, Lady Luck might decide to laugh at you. But, not everyone so Survivor's Bias will generate some 20-somethings that make $Millions this year at RobinHood and they will write a book and sell their "system" as they launch a brand. I work with two guys active on RobinHood and they are way out of their league. Will likely end the same way as when they were about to turn to being Professional Poker players.

Solid plan. Equities are nearing an inflection point. For VTI 200day MA is $152.85 and 50day MA is $150. Some advisors use those lines to determine how offensive/defensive they want to be. If the 50day crosses the 200day, equities should see more inflows. For traders, those are all floors. Being so close to each other might make them even stronger. Traditional valuations are pointless because no method comes back with a reasonable number. I still think dips get bought. The old saying is that two things drive the market - fear and greed. Even if we continue to get bad news, it gets harder to shock us and the "fear" part becomes less of an issue. Like yesterday, news was terrible, but market was down "only" 2.5% rather than the 8-10% numbers we were seeing in March. Greed pushes the market a little higher than it should. I still try to buy the dips and fade the rallies. Timing is hard and patience is the most valuable asset. But as Tom Petty sang, the waiting is the hardest part.

 

[noharleyyet]

But as Tom Petty sang, the waiting is the hardest part.

...don't forget"Insider" &"You Got Lucky"

 

[brymoore]

My current plan is to wait until January 1st to buy in if a drop doesn’t occur. However, I still think the Market will reflect the repercussions of the recession.

 

[Addicting]

Is the drop over or are we in for more on Monday?

 

[bcar]

Is the drop over or are we in for more on Monday?

The golden question

 

[TOGIE]

gotta figure the headlines about case counts will keep being headlines saturday and sunday yeah? and then the speculation about 4th of july across the nation being like the spring breakers on the beaches in march.

i'm expecting some fireworks for sure

 

[Irrelevant]

I bet it goes up Monday. Oreo's are on me.

 

[brymoore]

I wouldn’t speculate on daily swings. Someone may claim we’ll have a vaccine in August and the market will move 5%.

 

[Sytes]

Damn! I called tails and the market touted my call(s)! Showed me the heads on both side coin used...

Haha!

Black! Let her ride! Monday aftermarket MU earnings...

Wonder if I can return my wife's paddle board without her knowing... (Last purchase made when I topped 7.5k).

Damn Robinhood-ers!

 

[Addicting]

I bet it goes up Monday. Oreo's are on me.

I hope so. I have to make the call before noon to move my TSP. Seeing where it was headed Thursday I went all in. Later in the day it turned around and ended up way higher than what I was going for. That spike and today’s loss hurt.

 

[Irrelevant]

Me and wells fargo became friends this afternoon. We'll see if she stabs me in the back.

 

[bcar]

Me and wells fargo became friends this afternoon. We'll see if she stabs me in the back.

I dumped my small amount of B of A at the open. I'm hoping the bank carnage will continue for a couple more days and then I'd probably get back in. Some folks think the banks growth will really lag behind the broad market for a year or two though, so I'm also considering just washing my hands of it.

 

[Irrelevant]

I dumped my small amount of B of A at the open. I'm hoping the bank carnage will continue for a couple more days and then I'd probably get back in. Some folks think the banks growth will really lag behind the broad market for a year or two though, so I'm also considering just washing my hands of it.

if it goes up at all I will too, the cookie just looked too good to not stick my hand in.

 

[nontyp]

I dumped my JPM and brk.b on the 8th, but really getting tempted to re-buy. Looks like a good long term value. Im thinking warren is going to make some killer deals this Fall with their stack of cash.

 

[noharleyyet]

I have no idea what any of you are talking about but I think (hope) my FA does.

 

[Sytes]

This week looks fun for the earnings volatility...

 

[Schaaf]

I dumped my JPM and brk.b on the 8th, but really getting tempted to re-buy. Looks like a good long term value. Im thinking warren is going to make some killer deals this Fall with their stack of cash.

I think that would be wise. I’ve thought about doing the same thing.

 

[Sytes]

koolAid or potential week?

Dow jumps more than 500 points to start the week as Boeing and Apple rise

Stocks rose sharply to start the week as Wall Street cheered news on Boeing and traders shrugged off the latest surge in coronavirus cases.

www.cnbc.com

 

[thatsjet]

Definitely time to buy option calls on any blue chips that are taking a hit, imo.