Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Irrelevant]

I rode the TSLA wave recently for 50% gains and still bailed a little early. I would not be surprised to see a correction to them specifically, or to the market in total, but with the next administration primed to pump a shit load more cash into the economy (remember free everything) and with vaccines starting to trickle out to people, I also would not be surprised to see a continued trend of pricing based on hopes, dreams, and unicorn farts (my Dad's description of the current market the last time we chatted).

 

[noharleyyet]

Holy shit, and I thought I knew baseball... guess not.

I could learn to speak Portuguese faster....

 

[schmalts]

I sold my energy holdings today, as they have come a little too far too fast. I will look to reenter if opportunity presents. them.

Not me. I am holding. The way I look at it is this is one of the few sectors that has not rebounded past where they were pre-covid where crap like Tesla with a P/E of over 1000??? As soon as vaccines get out, summer rolls back around, and the big com trails are all over the skies again the big oil will be solid high dividend stocks to have. I bought a few just off the bottom like RDS, SUN. MPC, OKE, and CNP and while I did not make out like those who bought Tesla or AMZN (I did but sold early) I am not going to worry as much about a bubble popping. OKE has been a roller coaster but I am back up to the top on it and I do not see people stop heating the house with natural gas anytime soon plus it is still only half of pre-covid price and still pays a 9.3% DIV. SUN I am doing great and am over 30% on the purchase and the thing pays over 10% Div/Distribution but it is also approaching pre-covid prices but the hedge funds love that stock. I look at it as I got into a high DIV paying stock at a low entry price. BP is still the stock everyone loves to hate.... Still not much off the 52 week low.... A few stocks I bought near the bottom and have already sold are Clorox, MSFT (Ouch), MMM, AMZN(ouch) MPC so in the end I am sitting on a lot of cash at this point. Not sure what to do with BAC at this point

 

[SAJ-99]

I could learn to speak Portuguese faster....

LOL. The point is, if you think something odd is going on in the market you are right. There are even signs underneath the hood that are way off. I think @neffa3 video, while meant to be funny, actually explains more than you would think. The underlying buying of calls is driving the market (tail is wagging the dog, literally). It's December, volume is down, market is up YTD and no one wants to incur tax gains, and optimism reins. I am not moving to all cash or anything, but this is going to hit a wall at some point. Next Friday (Dec 18) option expiry is going to be interesting because TSLA will get added that weekend.

 

[SAJ-99]

Not me. I am holding. The way I look at it is this is one of the few sectors that has not rebounded past where they were pre-covid where crap like Tesla with a P/E of over 1000??? As soon as vaccines get out, summer rolls back around, and the big com trails are all over the skies again the big oil will be solid high dividend stocks to have. I bought a few just off the bottom like RDS, SUN. MPC, OKE, and CNP and while I did not make out like those who bought Tesla or AMZN (I did but sold early) I am not going to worry as much about a bubble popping. OKE has been a roller coaster but I am back up to the top on it and I do not see people stop heating the house with natural gas anytime soon plus it is still only half of pre-covid price and still pays a 9.3% DIV. SUN I am doing great and am over 30% on the purchase and the thing pays over 10% Div/Distribution but it is also approaching pre-covid prices but the hedge funds love that stock. I look at it as I got into a high DIV paying stock at a low entry price. BP is still the stock everyone loves to hate.... Still not much off the 52 week low.... A few stocks I bought near the bottom and have already sold are Clorox, MSFT (Ouch), MMM, AMZN(ouch) MPC so in the end I am sitting on a lot of cash at this point. Not sure what to do with BAC at this point

I agree. Bought XLE calls, they went up 100% in two days so I sold them. Oh well. Energy space is an enigma. Nat gas prices are trading with the weather forecast. Might added a NG call spread and play a reversion to the mean in temperatures. After all, it is winter.

 

[pointingdogsrule]

Sold my NIO. Up over 100% in two months. I left greed behind and sold at $50. I'll keep my eye it and maybe get back in once things stabilize.
Jump into the "ARK" etfs a month or so and getting good returns. Any thoughts on these sector funds. Good luck to all.

 

[Irrelevant]

Jump into the "ARK" etfs a month or so and getting good returns.

I have heard several others say the same

 

[ignorethefringes]

Sold my NIO. Up over 100% in two months. I left greed behind and sold at $50. I'll keep my eye it and maybe get back in once things stabilize.
Jump into the "ARK" etfs a month or so and getting good returns. Any thoughts on these sector funds. Good luck to all.

I'm in ARKW myself and it seems pretty solid overall. Not without risk of course, but it's up today when several of my others are down. Currently up +/- 19% since I bought in on 11/05.

 

[SAJ-99]

I'm in ARKW myself and it seems pretty solid overall. Not without risk of course, but it's up today when several of my others are down. Currently up +/- 19% since I bought in on 11/05.

Structurally tr looks like a decent way to get a high-beta bet in a diversified way. Largest holding is TSLA, so that explains a lot of the performance. In this market it looks like the "Price is no object" fund. The idea of thematic investing in an ETF is interesting but the fee is 0.75%. A little rich for me.

 

[ignorethefringes]

Structurally tr looks like a decent way to get a high-beta bet in a diversified way. Largest holding is TSLA, so that explains a lot of the performance. In this market it looks like the "Price is no object" fund. The idea of thematic investing in an ETF is interesting but the fee is 0.75%. A little rich for me.

I should have said up front that I have a long time until retirement and can probably afford to take more risks that some. I'm also invested in TSLA directly as an example, and have been in and out several times. In general I'm pretty heavy in tech type stocks, which reminds me that I need to set some stop loss orders just in case lol.

 

[SAJ-99]

I should have said up front that I have a long time until retirement and can probably afford to take more risks that some. I'm also invested in TSLA directly as an example, and have been in and out several times. In general I'm pretty heavy in tech type stocks, which reminds me that I need to set some stop loss orders just in case lol.

Diversification is key. In 2001 I had a long time until retirement...and the NASDAQ took 15 years to get back to highs. Irrational prices are irrational. The contrast on this thread is very interesting. @schmalts is buying companies that actually make money but whose forward story is not terribly attractive, contrasted with those who favor companies that practically set it on fire as a business model but whose forward story is positive and focused on "changing the world".

 

[ignorethefringes]

Diversification is key. In 2001 I had a long time until retirement...and the NASDAQ took 15 years to get back to highs. Irrational prices are irrational. The contrast on this thread is very interesting. @schmalts is buying companies that actually make money but whose forward story is not terribly attractive, contrasted with those who favor companies that practically set it on fire as a business model but whose forward story is positive and focused on "changing the world".

To be perfectly honest, oftentimes I'm buying based on OTHER people getting excited about a company. BYND was that way; I knew people would go nuts on it despite concerns with profitability and jumped on to ride it up. I expect other people to be idealistic and try and play that angle.

 

[schmalts]

JP Morgan just put a price target on Tesla..... $90.00. Load up now! Who doesn't like a P/E of 1100.00?

Tesla, Trading at $650, Gets $90 Price Target From JPMorgan

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman has told clients not to increase their holdings in Tesla to approximate its weight in the S&P; 500 ahead of its inclusion to the benchmark on December 21.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Irrelevant]

Tesla is a drug I'm trying to quit. Unfortunately my treatment has been Amazon, which hasn't helped my cravings lately.

 

[noharleyyet]

In all honesty I commission FA's that I hope are half as sharp as SAJ-99 and send them pics of my S&W collection ocassionally.

 

[Irrelevant]

In all honesty I commission FA's that I hope are half as sharp as SAJ-99 and send them pics of my S&W collection ocassionally.

We'd probably all be better off if we followed suite.

 

[schmalts]

Diversification is key. In 2001 I had a long time until retirement...and the NASDAQ took 15 years to get back to highs. Irrational prices are irrational. The contrast on this thread is very interesting. @schmalts is buying companies that actually make money but whose forward story is not terribly attractive, contrasted with those who favor companies that practically set it on fire as a business model but whose forward story is positive and focused on "changing the world".

A lot is what is behind the keyboard no one sees. How much are people really putting in? How close to retirement are you? Is this your life savings or fun money? how long or short are you?

 

[Irrelevant]

A lot is what is behind the keyboard no one sees. How much are people really putting in? How close to retirement are you? Is this your life savings or fun money? how long or short are you?

Fair bit. Long ways. Both. 5'10", #154

 

[SAJ-99]

A lot is what is behind the keyboard no one sees. How much are people really putting in? How close to retirement are you? Is this your life savings or fun money? how long or short are you?

True, but I assume most of this thread has been about the extra incremental dollar. I would hope that no one is 100% in Tesla, except Elon Musk. It always takes two people to make a market, but the contrast is getting bigger. A lot of that has to do with age (see the video). Hard to find a young value investor.

 

[schmalts]

True, but I assume most of this thread has been about the extra incremental dollar. I would hope that no one is 100% in Tesla, except Elon Musk. It always takes two people to make a market, but the contrast is getting bigger. A lot of that has to do with age (see the video). Hard to find a young value investor.

Check out OKE and let me know what you think