Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[SAJ-99]

Dummy that down please?

Data next week is going to be bad. We know this, but the scale of bad is going to be incredible. There were 5.8m unemployed in Feb report. We added 3.3m in new claims today (from last week) and expect a similar 3m number next week. That means 12m people will be unemployed and the UE rate will skyrocket.

Cash is a huge benefit to Mutual fund managers in a falling market. All the deposits from payrolls from the middle of the month were probably sat on as the market fell, but they can't sit on cash too long. They do what we call "window dressing" at the end of the month. They buy at lower prices and look like geniuses because they outperformed the market - at least that is the intent. We are already at levels from 3/15, so they probably should have bought. Fund managers are good at outsmarting themselves. They will still look good, but could have been better.

 

[BigHornRam]

I wonder how much more trading is being done because so many people are working from home?

Vegas will never be the same now that everyone is learning how to gamble on the stock market.

 

[brymoore]

Data next week is going to be bad. We know this, but the scale of bad is going to be incredible. There were 5.8m unemployed in Feb report. We added 3.3m in new claims today (from last week) and expect a similar 3m number next week. That means 12m people will be unemployed and the UE rate will skyrocket.

Cash is a huge benefit to Mutual fund managers in a falling market. All the deposits from payrolls from the middle of the month were probably sat on as the market fell, but they can't sit on cash too long. They do what we call "window dressing" at the end of the month. They buy at lower prices and look like geniuses because they outperformed the market - at least that is the intent. We are already at levels from 3/15, so they probably should have bought. Fund managers are good at outsmarting themselves. They will still look good, but could have been better.

What I’m seeing professionally is getting uglier by the day. If social distancing goes beyond April, the second quarter financials are going to be very bad.

 

[Sytes]

I pocketed these two put options 15 minutes earlier...
Personal experience, generally Fridays are tilted towards sell as few want to hold stock over the weekend. One tweet from our favorite Tweety bird and the market gets a bit cockeyed.

Figure a few puts going into Friday on today's gains might be worth running. Might even sell them end of market today if we get a drop however that *stimulus might spin my puts off their rocker. I need AMD to cooperate... Haha!

 

[SAJ-99]

Just to lighten the mood. You can’t make this stuff up.

“Zoom Video, which provides videoconferencing services and trades under the ticker symbol “ZM,” is a key component for many businesses shifting to remote work during the coronavirus pandemic. That’s led to the company, which went public last year, to see a surge in users and stock price rise of more than 112% this year so far… However, traders have also bid up the much smaller Zoom Technologies, which has the ticker symbol “ZOOM”. Its stock is up more than 50% this month and nearly 900% this year. The company has not disclosed financial information since 2015, the SEC says.”

 

[homers]

This recovery over the few days is similar to the last 2 major crashes. 2000, 2008. Both times the market fell significantly afterwards. Timing of it, who knows. Could be months from now.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Timing of it, who knows. Could be months from now.

Markets always go up, and markets always go down. You either stay in for the long haul; or you better guess right on the ups and downs - something the data shows very few if any actually do well over a multi-year period.

 

[Sytes]

Well, I hopped off that boat in time for some "lunch $".


Edit: hopped back onto UAL as it dropped down enough for a Jan $20 call.



If Stimulus kicks in for airlines, this ***should bump up some... Once Congress does whatever Congress does. Might be a turnover come Monday/Tuesday and when investors hear of UAL's restructuring plan.
Also a good long term (10 month) option value unless we think COVID-19 will not level off by then. If that's the case, as a "high risk" person, I'm not taking my $ to my ashed future...

 

[ignorethefringes]

Well, I hopped off that boat in time for some "lunch $".
View attachment 133126

Edit: hopped back onto UAL as it dropped down enough for a Jan $20 call.

View attachment 133145

If Stimulus kicks in for airlines, this ***should bump up some... Once Congress does whatever Congress does. Might be a turnover come Monday/Tuesday and when investors hear of UAL's restructuring plan.
Also a good long term (10 month) option value unless we think COVID-19 will not level off by then. If that's the case, as a "high risk" person, I'm not taking my $ to my ashed future...

Admittedly I have no idea what your charts mean. I'm just used to my Fidelity buy/sell page lol. But I find it incredibly intriguing.

 

[Sytes]

Here's a perspective regarding market bottom or the basic process large traders are using to get a feel of the bottom.
He also shared a few select stocks he feels have opportunity going forward.

Major indices open mixed, skepticism grows of coronavirus weakening

Stephen Guilfoyle of Sarge 986 LLC joins Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous, Brian Sozzi and Jared Blikre to discuss the latest market action.

finance.yahoo.com

@ajricketts it's just pictures to break up text. Haha!
A few friends and I compete on a weekly basis for highest % gains. Whomever wins buys the others lunch. We post pics of our market account page that provides proof of our gains (or losses). I post here out of habit to share my buy and sell of stocks/options, etc.
My preferenced platform is TDAmeritrade.

 

[rjthehunter]

Put Put Put Put Put Put Put Put Put Put for the win lol!

 

[VikingsGuy]

A few covid bailout summaries:

What's Inside The Senate's $2 Trillion Coronavirus Aid Package

The economic relief bill provides help to individuals, businesses, hospitals, as well as state and local governments. Here are the details.

www.npr.org

Congress Approves Economic Relief Plan for Individuals and Businesses

On Friday afternoon, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act passed the House of Representatives by a voice vote. The bill now moves to the President for signature.

taxfoundation.org

Summary of CARES Act

Yesterday, March 27, 2020, the House of Representatives passed the largest economic bill in U.S. History, and President Trump has signed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (the “CARES Act”) into law. You likely have already seen countless summaries, outlines and alerts on the...

www.natlawreview.com

 

[Sytes]

Some quality long term options floating about... A gold mine for intrinsic calls.

If ones inclined to hold some $ on 100 share blocks x "Y" options, there are some serious candidates! Once covid-19 plateaus and market hungry workers see the sun rising, these hold a powerful return opportunity or to simply play the intrinsic side leading up to this, "plateau"...

Some have already priced up. Others are still present.

Example:





I don't think we're done with our drop... Thus not ready to pull the trigger on a few options opportunities out there. I have alerts for companies that reach a point I believe holds a big upside... Example, for FEDX, an alert is set for FEDX hitting $96. If that happens, I'll pick up a couple options to hold for a while.

Anyhow, one idea how to capitalize on the bottom...

 

[SAJ-99]

News today says Russia and Saudi's agreed to cut oil production by 10m bpd (oil up 22% this morning). Meeting tomorrow of US oil and White House (at WH, which seems to be against social distancing, but whatever). It would legally be anti-competitive behavior for US producers to agree on cuts. Let's see what happens.
A couple of companies reported Q1 earnings today (Walgreens, Carmax), both got hit pretty hard for poor forward guidance. If this is the trend, is it possible we are a long way from a bottom because I don't see many companies being able to provide positive guidance in this environment.

 

[Sytes]

The bottom?
The impact of situations unfolding now that will affect our near future.
Example:
This is a two week paid furlough... After that?

Casino and resort operator Caesars Entertainment said it’s furloughing about 90 percent of its 64,000 employees due to temporary shutdowns necessitated by the coronavirus pandemic.

Caesars Entertainment furloughs 90% of U.S. employees, health care benefits to continue

Caesars Entertainment announced Thursday evening that its property closures has prompted nearly 90 percent of its staff to be furloughed. While Caesars battles the economic downfall of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, it said it will temporarily move to a "minimum workforce needed to maintain...

news3lv.com

Coronavirus prompts Caesars to furlough 90% of its employees after shutdowns

The company says it has 64,000 employees.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[schmalts]

Good to see this thread come back alive. I am surprised we are holding at the 21000 DOW. One thing that keeps me staying positive for a faster recovery of the market is that with the insane low interest rates it makes a lot less places to actually put your 401K money to work for the average Joe. After the 2008 crash the DOW recovered way faster than the economy IMO. I actually missed out on some incredible gains back in that one. I was fortunate to pull out in the early stages but refused to believe things were improving enough to jump back in. I HOPE we have more confidence this time around and the recovery is faster, not just the stock market, but the economy. IMO the stock market outpaced the economy big time in 2009-2010 and I hope this is the case again. Vaccinations I believe will be a very big factor. Let's just hope like hell this thing doesn't want to mutate like crazy or the economy and market is screwed. In the end, I view the stock market as a big pyramid scheme as long as rates stay this low. Watch this Richard Pryor movie from the 59:00min mark... all I can think of with the market LOL

 

[SAJ-99]

 

[44hunter45]

I threw some money at MRNA. They're about to test their first Coronavirus vaccination for humans!

Looks like you timed that one just right. Moderna moved 12% yesterday.

 

[schmalts]

Did anyone check into my Sunoco tip? I can't trade on that one in my 401 because of tax and fee reasons according to Fidelity. I would have bought a good amount a week ago. I am taking a beating on HTZ at this point. I bought some more today in hopes to cover some losses. Carl Icahn is either going to lose his ass like me or has a better outlook for that stock.

 

[SAJ-99]

Did anyone check into my Sunoco tip? I can't trade on that one in my 401 because of tax and fee reasons according to Fidelity. I would have bought a good amount a week ago. I am taking a beating on HTZ at this point. I bought some more today in hopes to cover some losses. Carl Icahn is either going to lose his ass like me or has a better outlook for that stock.

No vacations, no business travel, no car rentals. They get a bailout yet? I'm sure Carl was on the phone with the Donald this week.