Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

swing trade: Selective shorts might be a good play for end of day...

With world GDP and unemployment about to present the initial effects of COVID-19, a bit of Russia's attempt to bluff the Saudi's and yes, election year... my hobby opinion:

We've had these one day gains in the past month to inculde a 9-10% one day gain. We're sitting currently around 6-8% today. However, we hit resistance on / around 3/18. This resistance reflects five years prior where we were at this market value. Amazing to think how much this market has run since!!!

From investor positioning, futures minded, I believe this is a good summation:
Drastically thin markets are alarming because they can fuel outsize price swings. With futures markets being halted almost every day in the wake of wild swings, the lack of liquidity is so severe now that it’s fueling concern even among the pros who’ve lived through the worst market crashes in history.
Click to expand...

www.bloomberg.com

Near-Zero Liquidity in S&P Futures Means ‘Slippage’ Risk Is High

Liquidity is vanishing for U.S. equity futures.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

Then we have this...

www.marketplace.org

SEC on high alert for illegal stock market activity - Marketplace

Haima Marlier, a former senior trial counsel for the SEC, says recent trading suspensions show the SEC is "very much paying attention."
www.marketplace.org www.marketplace.org


It's anyone's guess though regardless, FAANG stocks, (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google), etc are incredibly overweight! They're a great price... As one example.

I've said UAL is well overweight and it's screaming today. Though there will be a pull back. Still a great value considering, as the diagram shared prior presents their stock was roughly $90 prior to COVID-19.

Overweight=good value.

I think for the average person not hard focused on the market, it's a decent time IF the market continues as it has over the course of this administration. Elections tend to reserve market activity.

Too many variables. I don't think we've hit the bottom for people dialing in for the low. What's changed to cause this sudden upswing? COVID-19 is still an unknown. Transport/recreation is shot, China production is yet to be determined, GDP about to rear its head...
 
Pump fake to suck in the mom and pop investors.

Wait until the numbers come out with massive unemployment and the real effects of Corona and the money printing. We're propping up a house of cards with shots of adrenaline. Corona merely popped a bubble that was ready to burst.
 
What I’m seeing in the business community, the deep ness of the financial crisis hasn’t been recognized yet.
 
Call me crazy but I just shifted 50% of my 401 into cash 10 minutes ago. I agree with the last 2 posts. The stimulus bill should not cause the uptick, it should have been assumed to happen. Earnings will be dismal, unemployment off the charts and Trump's comments about back to normal by Easter is ignoring the countries that are in the same boat as us a month ago. I'm not saying that we won't be going back up, just not before we go down more and stay there a while. There is also too much that is unknown about this virus that just has me worried. Will it be seasonal, will it mutate again making vaccines useless, and since it is also hitting every part of the world even where it is currently hot summer I am not confident this will go away in the USA this summer. It may settle down, but it may come back just like the flu. These things just have me spooked because they are unknown. The 1918 flu killed more people after 1918, it went on for a couple years.
 
Would now be a good time to try to move 401k investments towards the less risky side of things? We are at least 20 years from retirement, so I’m sure are invested heavily on the more aggressive side of things.
 
Southern Elk said:
Would now be a good time to try to move 401k investments towards the less risky side of things? We are at least 20 years from retirement, so I’m sure are invested heavily on the more aggressive side of things.
Click to expand...
Crystal ball would be a nice thing to have right now. Giving people advice on what to do with their retirement investments is a no win deal. You sell now and the market goes up, and your pissed. You hold and the market goes down and your pissed. Your call to make, it's your retirement.
 
I’m just curious if anyone has shifted things around within their 401k to be less risky in times like this.
 
schmalts said:
Call me crazy but I just shifted 50% of my 401 into cash 10 minutes ago. I agree with the last 2 posts. The stimulus bill should not cause the uptick, it should have been assumed to happen. Earnings will be dismal, unemployment off the charts and Trump's comments about back to normal by Easter is ignoring the countries that are in the same boat as us a month ago. I'm not saying that we won't be going back up, just not before we go down more and stay there a while. There is also too much that is unknown about this virus that just has me worried. Will it be seasonal, will it mutate again making vaccines useless, and since it is also hitting every part of the world even where it is currently hot summer I am not confident this will go away in the USA this summer. It may settle down, but it may come back just like the flu. These things just have me spooked because they are unknown. The 1918 flu killed more people after 1918, it went on for a couple years.
Click to expand...
Who knows if it is crazy or a good decision. I agree the stimulus was put in the market yesterday, but I think that the market also knows the things you listed, just not the degree. Tomorrow's new unemployment claims have estimates from 1m to 4m. Quite a range. What the market doesn't know is the degree of impact on the economy, the trajectory of the virus and when the economy will restart. It will react to any news on those things. I tend to look at price action. We certainly need two up days in a row, but I also don't think that 10% up days are anything resembling a healthy market. The problem is this market hasn't acted "normal" for years.
 
Southern Elk said:
I’m just curious if anyone has shifted things around within their 401k to be less risky in times like this.
Click to expand...
Not me. Other direction, actually. I was 60/40 in January and have moved toward 80/20. Clearly I was early and am sitting on losses in the retirement accounts, even on most of the new purchases. I still have some money to put to work and will nibble on big down days when the news is terrible. If your time frame is 20yrs, you are sitting on 20-30% losses YTD on the equity, dividend yield on S&P 500 is 2.4%, and cash yield is 0%. I look at it as I can't make money without taking risk. I have time on my side.
 
SAJ-99 said:
Who knows if it is crazy or a good decision. I agree the stimulus was put in the market yesterday, but I think that the market also knows the things you listed, just not the degree. Tomorrow's new unemployment claims have estimates from 1m to 4m. Quite a range. What the market doesn't know is the degree of impact on the economy, the trajectory of the virus and when the economy will restart. It will react to any news on those things. I tend to look at price action. We certainly need two up days in a row, but I also don't think that 10% up days are anything resembling a healthy market. The problem is this market hasn't acted "normal" for years.
Click to expand...
Agree. At least I have extra cash to do some trading now on stocks rather than the Mutual funds I was stuck. I was so close to buying HTZ on monday, and missed the boat. I have been watching that one since I herd Carl Icahn bought a ton (at like 17$ a share) and now owns 40% of the company. I doubt a Billionaire is going to want that company to go belly up and am sure has has plenty of contacts in positions of power (politicians) Oil is just a little more worrysome, however how often does any major oil company go belly up....
 
You can look to history for some guidance but it won't tell you much about what is happening today. World War One and the 1918 flu pandemic lead to the Roaring 20's, that turned later in the 20's into the Great Depression. My personal opinion is that the "cure" for Great Depression did more harm then good. Others would disagree. Where this goes in the future is anyone's guess. A lot of what happens tomorrow hinges on what we decide to do today.
 
BigHornRam said:
We are in an economic situation unlike any other we have faced. No one knows for sure where this is heading. My only thoughts are do some homework, and don't react impulsively.
Click to expand...

I agree

Several have asked me and I have said basically what Bighornram said above. The only thing I do wonder about is the possibility of hyperinflation, if the financial package from the Senate passes the House ( without changes), I will probably have my family add Gold. But my crystal ball is a bit cloudy today (-;

If I was 30 or even 20 years younger I would buy a new sail boat, look for a young man that is good at sailing, fishing, and whatever ---that would be my investment strategy . hunting wife , panda bear i would invite you but your married. maybe mtelkhuntress and randi might want to with me (-;
 
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