Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

I generally just buy index monthly and don't worry. Last summer I switched to ibonds.

Took a break and gambled a little. Bought BUD while it was down. AMZN too. Also picked some short term losers but they'll turn out long-term. Now Im trying not to hold off until June to start back with funds.

I need to buy something so it looks like TIPS. That's gonna take up my monthly contribution until June anyway.

So, I'm calling it for Summer. The only other thing to do is get into rentals. Pass.
 
Have to vent a little. Part of this is general media hyperbole, and why I am not a fan of WSJ anymore. This kind of stuff has convinced people we are in a recession.

Might not be able to access without a subscription, but I will put the link and reference the "funny" parts.
www.wsj.com

The U.S. Consumer Is Starting to Freak Out

The flush savings accounts and cheap credit that helped keep Americans spending at high rates since 2020 are disappearing, while inflation remains elevated.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com

In mid-November of last year, Mr. Andersson started getting calls from clients who had booked daylong tattoo sessions, saying they could only afford shorter ones or pulling out altogether. Mr. Andersson, who specializes in tattoo projects that often take five or six all-day sessions to complete, had 15 cancellations for full-day slots in December.

“In my 15 years doing this, I’ve never seen that—people calling up and saying they don’t have the money to spend right now or can only afford an hour because their current situation is pretty bad,” he said.

For now, First Class Tattoo isn’t likely to slash prices because the baseline level of demand remains strong. Some 250 clients are still on the wait list.
...
The large stock-market declines over the past year also alarmed consumers, including Scottsdale, Ariz.-based Sara Laor, who is 57 years old. Ms. Laor said the declines depleted the holdings in her 401(k) and IRA accounts by nearly 40%.

-Mr. Andersson makes me think we need much higher interest rates.
-40%!? Obviously Ms Laor a big YOLO're. HODL!!!!
-About the only datapoint that seemed remotely relevant...👇

Inbound volumes at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in California were down 20.1% in December from a year earlier, and have been behind 2019 levels since August.
 
SAJ-99 said:
Have to vent a little. Part of this is general media hyperbole, and why I am not a fan of WSJ anymore. This kind of stuff has convinced people we are in a recession.

Might not be able to access without a subscription, but I will put the link and reference the "funny" parts.
www.wsj.com

The U.S. Consumer Is Starting to Freak Out

The flush savings accounts and cheap credit that helped keep Americans spending at high rates since 2020 are disappearing, while inflation remains elevated.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com

In mid-November of last year, Mr. Andersson started getting calls from clients who had booked daylong tattoo sessions, saying they could only afford shorter ones or pulling out altogether. Mr. Andersson, who specializes in tattoo projects that often take five or six all-day sessions to complete, had 15 cancellations for full-day slots in December.

“In my 15 years doing this, I’ve never seen that—people calling up and saying they don’t have the money to spend right now or can only afford an hour because their current situation is pretty bad,” he said.

For now, First Class Tattoo isn’t likely to slash prices because the baseline level of demand remains strong. Some 250 clients are still on the wait list.
...
The large stock-market declines over the past year also alarmed consumers, including Scottsdale, Ariz.-based Sara Laor, who is 57 years old. Ms. Laor said the declines depleted the holdings in her 401(k) and IRA accounts by nearly 40%.

-Mr. Andersson makes me think we need much higher interest rates.
-40%!? Obviously Ms Laor a big YOLO're. HODL!!!!
-About the only datapoint that seemed remotely relevant...👇

Inbound volumes at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in California were down 20.1% in December from a year earlier, and have been behind 2019 levels since August.
Click to expand...
The 'ol dependable tattoo barometer. SAJ you really need to broaden your outrage sources.
 
noharleyyet said:
The 'ol dependable tattoo barometer. SAJ you really need to broaden your outrage sources.
Click to expand...
It's the WSJ for goodness sake. How broad should I go? I guess a tattoo owner gives a picture of his own business, which is a subset of the population. Funny part was he said he didn't have to drop prices because all the cancellations were filled.
Here is Google search trends for the word Recession. First graph is News Searches, second is general Search.

Screenshot 2023-02-01 at 10.05.24 AM.png
Screenshot 2023-02-01 at 10.05.44 AM.png
 
Yep, but tattoo news is no where near the pejorative aspects of the daily bs broadblasted....oh, say 3-4 years ago. Where were your well worded objective objections...
 
noharleyyet said:
Yep, but tattoo news is no where near the pejorative aspects of the daily bs broadblasted....oh, say 3-4 years ago. Where were your well worded objective objections...
Click to expand...
They are here, about 130 pages back. Plenty of examples. My problem in general is that everyone talks about a recession, fear of a recession, plans for the recession, but there isn't one. Media does it for clicks, but I also hear it in some ads. I have for a while completely admitted how hard it is to get clarity on the economy. I don't deny that at all. And the Tattoo guy has a view a legit as any other (still funny to me). But I still think a recession is necessary when I read that, but not that I see any indication of one now anywhere except SF housing. Tip of iceberg? maybe. I still think rates need to go higher as the froth appears to be rising again.
SAJ-99 said:
Agree, certainly not solely the reason. I think that part of the problem is that the stats typically measure the average and the economy has become more and more bifurcated into the haves and have nots. The Haves are savers. The Have Nots are spenders. There are a lot more Have Nots so they can tilt the spending data, but the Haves save a lot of the discretionary income. Mostly because there isn't much to spend it on, at least that is required. We see that in the frugality of corporate america. Corporations last big spending push was on the personal computers in the 90's. Ever since they have been on upgrade cycles.
Click to expand...
 
SAJ-99 said:
They are here, about 130 pages back. Plenty of examples. My problem in general is that everyone talks about a recession, fear of a recession, plans for the recession, but there isn't one. Media does it for clicks, but I also hear it in some ads. I have for a while completely admitted how hard it is to get clarity on the economy. I don't deny that at all. And the Tattoo guy has a view a legit as any other (still funny to me). But I still think a recession is necessary when I read that, but not that I see any indication of one now anywhere except SF housing. Tip of iceberg? maybe. I still think rates need to go higher as the froth appears to be rising again.
Click to expand...
Perhaps the new definition for recession is lack of boom...we are also reminded on a regular basis how good things are, no?
 
noharleyyet said:
Perhaps the new definition for recession is lack of boom...we are also reminded on a regular basis how good things are, no?
Click to expand...
Sure. I guess we can all agree you can find whatever message you want to hear. As well, things can be good and the economy still have problems. The problem is our tendency to measure the average of things. But that isn't my point in this case. Here we have people (not just media, but for sure media) acting like everything is horrible, just for views. Below is another example that is just intellectually dishonest. The joke about leading indicators is that none of them have shown to lead anything- one of the components is stock prices which is driving the whole number. And she works for a finance news network that should know better.
Again, I'm just venting and don't have a point.

www.cnbc.com

Kelly Evans: "Leading" us right over a cliff

www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
noharleyyet said:
Google going with or without algorithm bias? ;)
Click to expand...
So long as it makes $ then yes. It is in vogue. Come a long way since we were in 6th grade on school comps finding all sorts of unspeakable media! Like that certain cookbook was really harmless compared to the kids who watched the donkey show.
 
SAJ-99 said:
Sure. I guess we can all agree you can find whatever message you want to hear. As well, things can be good and the economy still have problems. The problem is our tendency to measure the average of things. But that isn't my point in this case. Here we have people (not just media, but for sure media) acting like everything is horrible, just for views. Below is another example that is just intellectually dishonest. The joke about leading indicators is that none of them have shown to lead anything- one of the components is stock prices which is driving the whole number. And she works for a finance news network that should know better.
Again, I'm just venting and don't have a point.

www.cnbc.com

Kelly Evans: "Leading" us right over a cliff

www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Click to expand...
I bet she can doodle upside down better than @noharleyyet FA can.😁
 
Too much rambling. Back to basics. folks. (humor)

Anyone contimplating hoping onto the DFLI train to hell or the motherload?
 
think it's worth taking a nibble on Hanes Brands?

gotta assume they'll rebound at some point. given their 2023 outlook might be worth holding out a little longer.
 
After three central bank meetings, all hell is breaking loose in bond yield curves.

Central Bank: Rates will be higher for a while
Market: No they won't
Central Banks: No, seriously
Market: STFU

Looking for various bank members (globally) to start walking back comments over the next few weeks. Will bond market care? Equities are already YOLOing.
 
SAJ-99 said:
After three central bank meetings, all hell is breaking loose in bond yield curves.

Central Bank: Rates will be higher for a while
Market: No they won't
Central Banks: No, seriously
Market: STFU

Looking for various bank members (globally) to start walking back comments over the next few weeks. Will bond market care? Equities are already YOLOing.
Click to expand...

trying to decide if i should close out some winners that aren't my index funds

edit, actuall i don't know. even those singular stocks i bought to hold for the long haul. best to close the browser and get back to work
 
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