Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[SAJ-99]

Don’t really think it matters at all what the Feds did in short run. Bottom line is that there will be some dark days ahead, maybe very dark, and the market knows it. Therefore, it was going to tank tomorrow regardless. The reality of it all is sinking in far and wide. That said, there will be a chit ton of liquidity out there once this is all said and done and we will rebound handily in the long run. We just have to win the war first and deal with some pain along the way.

Yeah but there are things that can be done, just not by the Fed.
Powell should have said “the Fed will buy as many treasuries and MBS needed to support whatever fiscal backstops that Congress and the President can agree on.” Drop mic and walk out.

 

[Sytes]

Going to be an interesting Monday...

AMD shorted Friday @ close so likely good there.

Long w/ MRNA... That may not pan out too well though that's my mRNA contribution for COVID-19... Pretty clever method to counter this virus.

 

[rmauch20]

Get ready for another fun and interesting Monday!

 

[Sytes]

Bought back shorts AMD premarket for 12% increase. Bought AMD long @ 38.90. if it drops 17% down, I'll sell and enjoy my 5% profit. Hopefully though it's a catch on its resistance line and I'll sell if it drops down to -7% during the day.

Sold MRNA for 3.3%. they just announced official clinical trials for the Corona virus RNA direction. It's pretty cool process. I just don't know if it's going to counter the fickle market right now. So I'll take my green probably a bit premature for this one It might rise up to 5% during the market day trade.

We're nowhere near calm waters. However volatile markets are profit-driven as well.

 

[rmauch20]

What a fall! We are doing something all right and that thing is destroying the US economy.

 

[TOGIE]

Good article that parses out the differences between current economic times and the 2008 recession.

It may feel like 2008 all over again, but here's how the coronavirus crisis is different

The coronavirus outbreak is rattling markets and hurting the economy. But here's how it's different from the 2008 financial crisis.

www.usatoday.com

i'm concerned that this appears to be overlooking the possibility of a highly leveraged shale industry going belly up this summer

but maybe that's too much speculation at this point

 

[Trial153]

The shale

i'm concerned that this appears to be overlooking the possibility of a highly leveraged shale industry going belly up this summer

but maybe that's too much speculation at this point

might come as sigh of relief as they been hoping to unload debt, all to common for them sorry to say. At least in this situation they can line up for the government dole.

 

[rjthehunter]

Maybe if the timing works out right, I'll stick all of my tax return into the market. Right before it goes back up. Lol. On the other hand. Maybe I'll just buy some hunting gear...

 

[Sytes]

Kicking myself for selling MRNA premarket...

 

[LopeHunter]

Am a buy and hold investor. Been that way for 4 decades starting when got first shares of a mutual fund at high school graduation. I rebalance my holdings but never hold cash. There was one exception where I cashed out prior to this spring.

I sold shares to cover for the kids' college as they graduated high school since wanted to match the investment horizon for those funds so I sold enough shares to cover all the years of college for both kids as they were nearing end of their high school years. Was still sitting on most of that cash when 9/11 took place. Too many people seemed to be in panic mode rather than acting as a rational investor. Everyone seemed to be nervous waiting for the markets to reopen that week. I went all in with the "college" cash after prices fell and fell as the market opened then sold on the bounce a few days later.

Now another 20 years of buy and hold went by but last month seemed like 9/11 all over the more the stocks pulled back in price. When was falling below a 20% pullback then I figured would either go sideways for a couple of years or fall more. I sold. Why would it fall more? Well, recession seemed underway before the market pull back. Technically not a recession but only because of how we wait for about 6 months to declare a recession is underway. Plus, the chance of Bernie winning the nomination. Depression. 401K statements showing drastic fall in account value showing up in April to panic casual investors. If have deaths of over 250,000 Americans from Covid-19. Trump losing. Death of a candidate or judge. Did not see much that would lead to a lasting stock rally.

I am not a "quant" though have MBA with Finance that went to dark side to be in sales of industrial goods. Market timing is a bad idea.

I cashed out stock holdings in tax-deferred accounts on Feb 28th. I set a buy target for bonds and for stocks. Bonds briefly hit my target a few days ago but bounced back so fast that I never noticed. I choose not to set up pending trades.

Bought back in today. Bought stocks with the cash. Have a lot more shares now and if the stock rebounds 50% of the fall from the high back in February then I am even with my account balance on the day the high was hit in early February. If stocks rally the next few months and bonds fall then might pivot out of stocks into bonds. Lately, stocks and bonds have moved the same direction which is not the norm traditionally.

So, that is my journey as a buy and hold investor that took a walk on the wild side for a second time in 40 years.

 

[rjthehunter]

Kicking myself for selling MRNA premarket...

I bought right after open. I put a limit sell on COE at 35$ evening of march 10th... It went into a free-fall from there and is sitting at 21 right now... Guess I'm just going to sit on these till it goes back up.

 

[Jasher]

Well update on my buying. Yesterday I bought over a 100 gallons of gas at $1.45 and $200 in ammo. I think I'm good for a week

 

[Trial153]

With the blue chips being down almost 30% who is already pricing a recession into their buys?

 

[RobG]

Lopehunter, my philosophy has been similar.

I've been saving heavily for the last 28 years. In 2018, after the 9-10 year bull market that more than tripled my equities I looked at how much I had accumulated and remembered investment adviser Larry Swedroe's advice to "Never take more risk than you have the ability, willingness, or need to take." While I could stomach the losses, I was 51 and asked myself why I was sticking my neck out with an inevitable recession on the horizon. With normal appreciation I could coast into retirement as long as I didn't lose it, but if I did lose it I'd need to leave Montana and get a real job.

Like Swedroe, I switched my equities from a percentage of the total to a constant dollar amount. I moved what I didn't "need" into bonds and lowering debt. This wasn't market timing as much as it was reevaluating based on my ability, willingness and need to take risk. In fact it wasn't even "market savvy" because the inevitable recession might not have gotten below the value I "sold" at. I don't think it would have been a smart move for a younger person who wasn't near their retirement goals yet because they probably need to take risk.

That's been my trip on the wild side. Over the next year I'll put new money into equities and gradually grow them back up to my constant dollar value or a bit more. Not prescient management, but a little luck and age appropriate risk management has kept me from being too concerned with this particular craziness.

With the present volatility I wouldn't be buying/selling large amounts with the expectation of making a killing. I think your money would be better spent on "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" and maxing out all your annual contributions to retirement accounts. You accumulate money by saving large amounts of it for decades, not dinking around.

 

[rmauch20]

LOL. Today was a rough one. I can’t wait to see what great news tomorrow brings. Stay positive everybody

 

[Dave N]

LOL. Today was a rough one. I can’t wait to see what great news tomorrow brings. Stay positive everybody

Kind of hard to do when you're watching your 401K disappear before your eyes. Started late, got in slowly and had investments pretty aggressive trying to make up for lost time. Just have to wait it out I guess. Maybe if it bounces good soon I'll switch to something stable to hang on to what's left.

 

[SAJ-99]

S&P wants to test Dec 2018 low around 2350. S&P futures hit it immediately this morning and bounced, so there were some buy orders sitting at that level. Valuations are starting to get attractive. You will see more Wall Street shops write off 2020 and start to look at 2021. Even if 2021 earnings were the same as 2019, $165 for S&P, the P/E would be below 15x. You just have to wait it out. The virus is a temporary issue, we just don't know if it is a 1,2,3 qtr thing. The equity markets are a little concerned that all these companies loaded up on cheap debt and a hit to revenues is going to make them wobble. Airlines and energy companies might be owned by the government before we are done, but the market as a whole is getting cheap.

 

[JLS]

The global coronavirus recession is beginning

The collapse in activity affected every sector of the Chinese economy during the first two months of the year. Retail sales plunged 20.5% during January and February compared to 2019, industrial output was down 13.5%, and fixed asset investment fell by nearly 25%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The decline in industrial production was the sharpest contraction on record.

"We're seeing the impact of those lockdowns in China," said Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics. The conditions may differ in other countries, he continued, but will still be "severe on growth."

With China still struggling to get back on its feet, the situation in Europe and the United States is rapidly deteriorating. Italy, now the epicenter of the pandemic, has more than 24,000 cases. Spain has at least 9,000, and the United States has reported more than 4,000 cases.

Goldman Sachs on Sunday downgraded its outlook for US GDP, citing a cutback in spending, supply chain disruptions and the impact of local quarantines. The investment bank thinks America's economy will now shrink 5% between April and June, after 0% growth between January and March. Growth for the year is forecast to come in at just 0.4%, down from 1.2%.

 

[homers]

People and the market are reacting to the immediate fear and unknowns around the virus. The markets will go lower when the businesses start reporting their impacts. Lots of hourly workers being sent home and ultimately laid off. No money means businesses get hurt and many small businesses will go under. If this turns into a credit crisis like 2008, with banks failing or countries in South America or Europe (think Italy) not being able to pay their debt, then the market will really tank.

 

[SAJ-99]

People and the market are reacting to the immediate fear and unknowns around the virus. The markets will go lower when the businesses start reporting their impacts. Lots of hourly workers being sent home and ultimately laid off. No money means businesses get hurt and many small businesses will go under. If this turns into a credit crisis like 2008, with banks failing or countries in South America or Europe (think Italy) not being able to pay their debt, then the market will really tank.

10yrs ago I would have agreed with you. I’m not sure now. Markets seem to want to price in future things with no data. See 2018 the market pricing in a recession that never happened (technically). I would bet a bottom will be put in well before the actual data ever hits bottom.
Congress should announce some things to help small businesses this week. At least I hope. Helicopter money helps some but isn’t targeted enough. I want to see SBA low interest loans and full funding of assistance programs for low income individuals. I’m sure there are a ton of other ideas that haven’t hit me yet.