PEAX Equipment

Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

Ya, I know... it's just another swing of information equivalent to us, HT yappers, though I receive Seeking Alpha, and Earning Whispers emails each day. Anyone catch the FedX earnings conference? I missed it though if there's an indication of a possible rough patch moving in, sure seems the CEO made no qualms about it. Bold Red portion:

Weekend Bite, a Seeking Alpha original series: This week, we're joined by Susannah Streeter, Senior Investment and Markets Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. She shares her thoughts on the European energy crisis, if Bitcoin and Ethereum are still in play, and a reminder that investors need to hear from time to time. Kim Khan also shares the Catalyst Watch for next week on what is certain to move markets.

Stock index futures point to another decline this morning following a tough past four sessions, with the market set to record its fourth down week out of the last five. The benchmark S&P 500 (SP500) is 4% lower going into the last trading day of the week, while the Nasdaq (COMP.IND) and Dow (DJI) are off 4.6% and 3.7%, respectively. It's also quadruple witching day, which refers to the simultaneous expiration of market index futures, stock futures, market index options and stock options. The event can lead to higher volatility, which is not the greatest recipe in the current environment.

Bad news: FedEx (FDX) sent shudders down traders' spines late Thursday after sounding the alarm on macro weakness and withdrawing its full-year guidance. CEO Raj Subramaniam said he expects the economy to enter a worldwide recession, and would have to implement cost-cutting initiatives (closing 90 offices and five corporate locations, freezing hiring, reducing flights, etc.) to deal with softer global shipment volumes. FDX shares tumbled nearly 20% in response, and the sentiment was seen elsewhere, with the company serving as a barometer for "everybody else's business."

"The [Federal Reserve] might have a hard choice to make," noted Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital. "Before they were saying, we're going to try to have a soft landing and bring down inflation. Now they may have to make a choice. It's either a soft landing or bringing down inflation. In other words, they may have to engineer more of a crackdown on economic growth to bring down inflation."

Next up: Bulls defended the important S&P support level of 3,900 again on Thursday, but a close below that level today could open the gates for further drawdowns - especially in the traditionally weak second half of September. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan is set to release its preliminary measure of September consumer sentiment at 10:00 a.m. ET, which could shift direction shortly after the start of trading. Economists expect the index to rise to 59.7 from 58, and inflation expectations will be watched to see if they drop from 4.8%.
 
It is a rounding error when considering inflation. $5 trillion or $5.5 trillion? Big whoop. Inflation is going to happen.

Stop ignoring what caused the inflation by worrying about the little problems.
Stupid spending to buy votes is the problem. Here is another rounding error to give more fuel to the dumpster fire.


"On Tuesday, President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law. The sweeping $739 billion spending package — a reduced version of the administration’s Build Back Better plan — aims to reduce health-care costs, shrink the deficit and combat climate change. "
 
Anyone buying today? Lot's of good deals to be had. FedEx is almost a steal!
Bad news: FedEx (FDX) sent shudders down traders' spines late Thursday after sounding the alarm on macro weakness and withdrawing its full-year guidance. CEO Raj Subramaniam said he expects the economy to enter a worldwide recession, and would have to implement cost-cutting initiatives (closing 90 offices and five corporate locations, freezing hiring, reducing flights, etc.) to deal with softer global shipment volumes. FDX shares tumbled nearly 20% in response, and the sentiment was seen elsewhere, with the company serving as a barometer for "everybody else's business."

Sounds as though you may find this at a lower price point...
 
Bad news: FedEx (FDX) sent shudders down traders' spines late Thursday after sounding the alarm on macro weakness and withdrawing its full-year guidance. CEO Raj Subramaniam said he expects the economy to enter a worldwide recession, and would have to implement cost-cutting initiatives (closing 90 offices and five corporate locations, freezing hiring, reducing flights, etc.) to deal with softer global shipment volumes. FDX shares tumbled nearly 20% in response, and the sentiment was seen elsewhere, with the company serving as a barometer for "everybody else's business."
I heard the news. My post was tongue in cheek.
 
Yep. Something neither of you can do!

Initial amount by Biden was $240b. I was $385b

Either amount would be rounded down.

However, you are still worried about this one little amount and ignoring the $5T given away by both political parties.

I hope you enjoyed your checks.
Didn’t get any checks. Kept my job and kept working right through the pandemic. My income is above the thresholds which was fine by me. I didn’t have a need.

Sounds like we agree. Giving people free chit causes inflation and isn’t good economic policy. How about you? How much of the free chit you get?
 
Yep. Something neither of you can do!

Initial amount by Biden was $240b. I was $385b

Either amount would be rounded down.

However, you are still worried about this one little amount and ignoring the $5T given away by both political parties.

I hope you enjoyed your checks.
I contacted my Senators twice and told them not to give me money, I didn't need it. They direct deposited it in my bank account because I e-file. I gave the money to my brother who lost his job when the pandemic started. What else do you want to know?
 
Yep. Something neither of you can do!

Initial amount by Biden was $240b. I was $385b

Either amount would be rounded down.

However, you are still worried about this one little amount and ignoring the $5T given away by both political parties.

I hope you enjoyed your checks.
No checks here either, way over that threshold.

The student loan giveaway is not a little problem, it sets a horrendous precedent and something can still be done about it (albeit highly unlikely) unlike the giveaways that have already transpired.

The forgiveness program is literally refunding investments in oneself, which is insane policy and very unfair. And the estimate is $500B+. Sure the Whitehouse will try to make it look smaller, but I tend to believe the analysis coming out of Wharton far more than the BS Whitehouse #'s.

With this asinine policy, most college students, fresh out of school and in the early part of their careers, will qualify for forgiveness. Fast forward a few years and those same individuals will have progressed in their careers and will make multiples above where they started and at that point, would not have qualified for forgiveness. So why should anything have been forgiven since the dividends from taking student loans are paid out years down the line and for a lifetime...

Take me for example, went to undergrad and followed that up with two graduate degrees. My wife did the same thing. When we bought our first house 22 years ago, I remember the mortgage guy literally saying "holy shit, you guys have a ton of student loans to pay back". He felt almost sorry for us. But why?? That investment enabled our earnings to grow over the years 15X from where we started and gave us a very comfortable life. Moreover, our student loans have long been paid off because we worked our asses off to do so. The same can be said for countless people who did the very same thing as us.

I wonder what's coming next if we start forgiving investment debt, since that is what student loan forgiveness is. Maybe we start forgiving debt incurred by those who trade on margin, or maybe we start forgiving debt from real estate investments, or any other investment for that matter...
 
Here is another 3-minute video about on inflation. Inflation is always and only a monetary phenomenon.


Milton Friedman-Only Government Creates Inflation
That’s like saying a hurricane is a weather phenomenon. It doesn’t explain anything. Yes, I know he won the Nobel prize for that, but history has shown that while the look-back research was good, the conclusion isn’t that simple. Somehow the past data he looked showed that government money creation preceded every hype-inflationary spike (true) changed to a conclusion that government was the cause of inflation and every money creation would lead to an hyper-inflationary spike. The latter isn’t true. See 2008-09 as an example. Inflation is a lot more complicated than that. I’m not sure anyone understands it completely and even J-Poww has hinted at such. But like any job, they start to lose credibility if they say “I don’t know”…
 
I could be mistaken of course, but I believe that the conclusion really is that simple. More money printed= inflation, no exceptions. Without an increase in the money supply, the money required for runaway inflation simply does not exist, right? This seems like simple reasoning to me. The Government money printing in 2008 resulted in inflation a couple years later, especially in the stock market, real estate, and in gasoline prices. And the Government reported only 1.5% inflation in 2011. Really??? Almost no one in America will believe such low numbers, because they know that their cost of living went up way more than that, each and every year from 2008 until the present. Correct me where I'm wrong "99", I love a good hearty discussion.
 
I could be mistaken of course, but I believe that the conclusion really is that simple. More money printed= inflation, no exceptions. Without an increase in the money supply, the money required for runaway inflation simply does not exist, right? This seems like simple reasoning to me. The Government money printing in 2008 resulted in inflation a couple years later, especially in the stock market, real estate, and in gasoline prices. And the Government reported only 1.5% inflation in 2011. Really??? Almost no one in America will believe such low numbers, because they know that their cost of living went up way more than that, each and every year from 2008 until the present. Correct me where I'm wrong "99", I love a good hearty discussion.
If only it were that simple. It just isn't. There are examples of exceptions- I gave the last one, 2008. You need to go back and check the numbers because we didn't get inflation. The aggregate housing market prices bottomed in 2012. CPI jump in 2008 was more the first half when oil went to $120. I find it difficult to have a meaningful discussion when you question the validity of CPI. Unfortunately, it's about all we have. You can't believe it when it suits your claim and disbelieve it when it doesn't. The core problem is inflation isn't uniform. Housing may go down while food goes up and electronics stay the same. Everyone has a different "cost of living" because they buy different things and different amounts.

Friedman had a lot of screwy assumptions in his theory, and argued that the assumption didn't matter. I agree that most people think that more money (M) would lead to higher prices, but things like supply and demand have to remain static. Then there is the velocity of money, which could create inflation as well, but we can't accurately measure V without knowing M, and M always goes up. It's a mess to unravel.

I am not arguing against the theory that the Fed was too aggressive for too long this time, but rather that Friedman's theory was more wrong than we want to admit. That guy is treated like a god by many- usually by those that don't understand economics. To get really high inflation, like we have now, simply increasing M isn't enough.
Another thing I can get behind is that handing out check can result in increased prices of financial assets, with Bitcoin sure looking like a solid example. But there is a lot of argument about that.
 
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