Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[SAJ-99]

Game to hear thoughts. Little guppies looking to inflate?

The S&P tech sector is now almost flat YTD, so in hind sight looks like he was right. SMH still up 15% though, so Apple has been a big drag. This is typically a seasonally weak period and last week was an option expiration. S&P down about 5% now, so we see if it gets bought. That Buy-The-Dip down 5% level hasn't worked great the last couple of years. Down 7-10% is a better spot, but with flows coming back this week it will be interesting to watch.

 

[noharleyyet]

@SAJ-99

bit halving? Gimme the Cliff Notes....

 

[SAJ-99]

@SAJ-99

bit halving? Gimme the Cliff Notes....

Honestly, no clue. I guess it was pretty well known event so the price is just doing its normal movement. The negative price reaction on the Mideast news last week sort of shows it is just an inverse risk proxy.

 

[noharleyyet]

https://www.coinbase.com/bitcoin-halving

 

[Sytes]

https://www.coinbase.com/bitcoin-halving

That's a whole 'nother world I've not dipped my toes into. Are you vested/interested in the crypto market? If so, what have you learned - ballpark pros/cons?

 

[noharleyyet]

That's a whole 'nother world I've not dipped my toes into. Are you vested/interested in the crypto market? If so, what have you learned - ballpark pros/cons?

No sir...but I wouldn't turn down a Brady bunch deal & help dupe the masses...

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

Well you see we got bitcoin, ethereum and then thousands of shitcoins. I’ve lost small money on shitcoin gambles and it was fun. The thing is though with any cryptocurrency, it’s years of stasis. Then a frenetic run up quick followed like a rug pull down down bam. Rinse, repeat. Right now the only crypto I own is a shitcoin called shibu inu. They made it as a joke to the more popular dogecoin. And I like the honesty there, like this is only ever going to be a shitcoin because dogecoin is dumb. Freakin love that humor. I own 1.5M having invested $24.

 

[Sytes]

1.5M having invested $24.

Shitcoins for Dummies version - please.

Are you dependent on a commerce to accept your version of shitcoin - hence, it could be a billion though reality it's worthless?

 

[Sytes]

Second Q for all investors:

Visa / MasterCard. Thoughts?

Interesting article:

"Looking at the math
Both stocks have pulled back slightly during the past month, but they still trade at what many would consider premium valuations. Visa and Mastercard sell at price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 31 and 38, respectively. That might discourage prospective investors who believe this greatly reduces the potential to achieve solid returns in the future. But these valuations are lower than their trailing-five-year averages.

Based on the favorable qualities I discussed above, not many people would argue that the P/E multiples Visa and Mastercard command are unwarranted. These are undoubtedly two of the best businesses on the face of the planet.

If they can keep up their impressive growth trends, their market caps have a very good shot at hitting $1 trillion by 2030. According to average of analyst estimates, Visa and Mastercard are projected to increase their earnings per share at annualized rates of 13.3% and 16.7%, respectively, during the next three years. Should that continue throughout the decade, which I believe it will, then investors have a lot to be excited about."

Prediction: 2 Magnificent Stocks That Will Reach a $1 Trillion Valuation Before 2030

These two great businesses are set to join an exclusive club.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

Shitcoins for Dummies version - please.

Are you dependent on a commerce to accept your version of shitcoin - hence, it could be a billion though reality it's worthless?

I use coinbase which has the option to cash out to USD or convert into any other crypto that’s available on that exchange. Overall yes, it is because of commerce, which gives worth to any government paper, is how all crypto is valued.

 

[SAJ-99]

Second Q for all investors:

Visa / MasterCard. Thoughts?

Interesting article:

Prediction: 2 Magnificent Stocks That Will Reach a $1 Trillion Valuation Before 2030

These two great businesses are set to join an exclusive club.

finance.yahoo.com

Never could get comfortable with the valuation of either. The entire business is based on growth in transactions and inflation, which means it is very economically sensitive. The entire business is ripe for disruption. Everyone that uses your product hates it because you are scraping 2-3% off the top. The only thing saving it is American's hate for government solutions and Visa and MC lobbying efforts.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

I’m glad you asked! I’m not a financial advisor and everything I’m about to write should be taken as horseshit flung by a madman.
But yes, let’s consider TSLA. TSLA investors ain’t poor so we’re going to be looking at an $8k put. The 6mo, 3mo, 1mo RSI is steady <40 or “sell” point. It was $152 a year ago at the end of April and the upcoming ER will be announced 4/17. I’m thinking the ER will flop and some longs could dump prior to that with alright gains, say at $200/sh? Given the past two quarters performance I just don’t see $275/sh come mid-May. Especially after ER in April.
The 5/17/24 $275 put looks pristine today. Delta is -.999 and if it falls like a perfectly felled tree sold to a sucker then it’ll be $19k earned.

@Flatrock TSLA closed today $168.47. Not to toot my own horn, but yeah. I premised that prediction off ‘23 history, earnings prediction and RSI at the time.

 

[SAJ-99]

@Flatrock TSLA closed today $168.47. Not to toot my own horn, but yeah. I premised that prediction off ‘23 history, earnings prediction and RSI at the time.

What did you make...$2500? This assumes you didn't close it out when it ran back about $200/sh. If you waited you could have closed with it below $140. And using RSI over the 3mos would have drove a person crazy. Timing is everything

 

[Sytes]

@Flatrock TSLA closed today $168.47. Not to toot my own horn, but yeah. I premised that prediction off ‘23 history, earnings prediction and RSI at the time.

Nice play. Earnings and RSI / Ichimoku are to [two] of my favorite means to identify an edge over a coin flip.

EDIT: to = two. Rubs me when google changes a correctly spelled word to another word because its AI thinks that is what I intended to type... Haha!

 

[popeyoung12]

I will sell enough equities profit to offset a 60k bond loss in the fall, dump it in my mm, keep my powder dry because I do expect a dow correction inside of 9 months.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

What did you make...$2500? This assumes you didn't close it out when it ran back about $200/sh. If you waited you could have closed with it below $140. And using RSI over the 3mos would have drove a person crazy. Timing is everything

Oh no, that level of insane is MM behavior with other people’s money. Besides, I don’t think there were ever any interested parties at that put. A holder would’ve had to actually assigned it for a 100 block of shares to make sense. I thought I read the market tea leaves correctly that TSLA would again go shitty and RSI was a big part of that inclination.

 

[SAJ-99]

Oh no, that level of insane is MM behavior with other people’s money. Besides, I don’t think there were ever any interested parties at that put. A holder would’ve had to actually assigned it for a 100 block of shares to make sense. I thought I read the market tea leaves correctly that TSLA would again go shitty and RSI was a big part of that inclination.

It would have been a wide ride. Honestly, I never would have been able to stay in. Rule #1, know thyself.

 

[Treeshark]

keep my powder dry because I do expect a dow correction inside of 9 months.

I do get the sentiment, especially right now. But time IN the market always beats timING the market over the long haul. At least looking in the rear view.

 

[popeyoung12]

I do get the sentiment, especially right now. But time IN the market always beats timING the market over the long haul. At least looking in the rear view.

Well, the 3 month tbill and 10 year tbill are inverted. Happened 3 times, first was 1929. I have zero confidence in the fed let alone dementia Joe avoiding stagflation imo. But it's fun rolling the dice.