Another Housing Market Crash Looming?

[BigHornRam]

All I know is that something has to give. Framing lumber is 4-5x what it was last year at this time.
I am in the process of building a 12x16 garden shed. Total cost of materials should be @ 1200 in a normal year. Looking like it’s gonna cost @ 4K for materials alone.
I paid $16 for 5/8” OSB last July. I bought six sheets last night for $71.08 per sheet.

You bought at that price. No one held a gun to your head and made you buy. Price is high because people continue to buy.

 

[tjones]

Best thing anyone can do right now is get out of debt. Make smart financial decisions, and develope good and diverse job skills.

Or have a wife with a good job.

 

[homers]

Futures prices for lumber have fallen 25%, will take some time to be reflected at the stores. Trending in the right direction.

 

[SAJ-99]

Or have a wife with a good job.

We have know for millennia that women are smarter than men. Don't blame those of us that marry-up for letting them prove it.

 

[TOGIE]

my wife makes more than me.

i don't feel the least bit emasculated, i feel like a genius

 

[rwc101]

If my house tanks in value I'll just pull out every other 2x4 and panel of plywood and sell them. I'll be rich.

 

[homers]

Just checked this morning, Lumber prices have experienced one of their biggest and quickest plunges in history— with the spot futures contract dropping more than $670, or 40%, in just 25 trading sessions.

 

[McShooter]

I still like the AirBnB/VRBO model for investment real estate, but now is not the time to be buying one. Anyone who bought one and wasn't aggressively paying it down has made a terrible mistake. Those properties can generate impressive cash flow but can sink in a hurry with a long period of vacancy. If you're going to be an owner or property like that you really should have something like 6 months of reserves saved up.

Agreed

 

[Buffs35]

All these folks from out of state that paid cash, or covered appraisal gaps with cash, will have a rude awakening when they realize employers aren't going to pay NY, Chicago, California, fill in the blank wages for them to sit at their computer out of state. It's already happening.

 

[Gerald Martin]

You bought at that price. No one held a gun to your head and made you buy. Price is high because people continue to buy.

True. But, I also have a shop that was going to be built this summer. The sticker shock of that shed was the tipping point in my decision to wait.

 

[mtmuley]

All these folks from out of state that paid cash, or covered appraisal gaps with cash, will have a rude awakening when they realize employers aren't going to pay NY, Chicago, California, fill in the blank wages for them to sit at their computer out of state. It's already happening.

This is why I feel fortunate to work for a company that has clients that don't give a rip how much materials cost, or worry about where they need to work. mtmuley

 

[Deleted member 28227]

All these folks from out of state that paid cash, or covered appraisal gaps with cash, will have a rude awakening when they realize employers aren't going to pay NY, Chicago, California, fill in the blank wages for them to sit at their computer out of state. It's already happening.

Maybe. Maybe not.

My sisters company has a COL policy and salaries shift depending on what state or country you live in, you get a 2 month buffer. So she does short term rentals. Recently she has been getting lots of calls from recruiters for SF based companies that are paying SF salary and don't give a crap where you are based.

This is obviously anecdotal but I think it will largely depend on the field and the talent pool.

We shall see.

Also cracks me up the finger pointing at NY and CA.

You guys do realize that there are half a dozen positions in oil companies that make over $300K a year.

An oil field manager in the Permian makes more than a cardiologist in NYC. I have actually seen the contracts for a Company Man that was $650,000.

 

[Buffs35]

Maybe. Maybe not.

My sisters company has a COL policy and salaries shift depending on what state or country you live in, you get a 2 month buffer. So she does short term rentals. Recently she has been getting lots of calls from recruiters for SF based companies that are paying SF salary and don't give a crap where you are based.

This is obviously anecdotal but I think it will largely depend on the field and the talent pool.

We shall see.

Also cracks me up the finger pointing at NY and CA.

You guys do realize that there are half a dozen positions in oil companies that make over $300K a year.

An oil field manager in the Permian makes more than a cardiologist in NYC. I have actually seen the contracts for a Company Man that was $650,000.

I'm not pointing fingers, there has been an influx of those folks moving into the mountain west. And my point is that just because the evening news says workers will work from home for the foreseeable future doesn't make it so.

 

[LuketheDog]

I'm not pointing fingers, there has been an influx of those folks moving into the mountain west. And my point is that just because the evening news says workers will work from home for the foreseeable future doesn't make it so.

Companies post jobs where you can work anywhere - except for Colorado

A 9Wants to Know investigation found at least 10 companies may be avoiding hiring Coloradans to get around a new labor law.

www.9news.com

 

[SAJ-99]

I'm not pointing fingers, there has been an influx of those folks moving into the mountain west. And my point is that just because the evening news says workers will work from home for the foreseeable future doesn't make it so.

Hopefully the employer said it would be so.

Companies post jobs where you can work anywhere - except for Colorado

A 9Wants to Know investigation found at least 10 companies may be avoiding hiring Coloradans to get around a new labor law.

www.9news.com

that is hilarious. You have to wonder why companies don’t want to post target salary ranges. You would think the job pays what it pays. Studies have shown transparency in pay has huge benefits in employee retention and satisfaction with pay. But it has never really gained traction.

 

[BackofBeyond]

I'm not pointing fingers, there has been an influx of those folks moving into the mountain west. And my point is that just because the evening news says workers will work from home for the foreseeable future doesn't make it so.

Ahhh local news. The corner stone of all research for major life decisions.

 

[ignorethefringes]

Hopefully the employer said it would be so.



that is hilarious. You have to wonder why companies don’t want to post target salary ranges. You would think the job pays what it pays. Studies have shown transparency in pay has huge benefits in employee retention and satisfaction with pay. But it has never really gained traction.

I'm guessing it's because a lot of people are still so guarded about sharing that kind of information. As far as I'm aware, it is illegal just about anywhere to limit employees sharing their salary information. Yet it's still not common practice to do so. If individuals aren't really pushing to make it common practice, and aren't willing to be transparent themselves, it won't likely ever really gain traction. Too many people, and companies, would rather wheel and deal to save a buck or deal than deal with the core problems like employee retention and morale.

 

[LuketheDog]

that is hilarious. You have to wonder why companies don’t want to post target salary ranges. You would think the job pays what it pays. Studies have shown transparency in pay has huge benefits in employee retention and satisfaction with pay. But it has never really gained traction.

I'm guessing it's because a lot of people are still so guarded about sharing that kind of information. As far as I'm aware, it is illegal just about anywhere to limit employees sharing their salary information. Yet it's still not common practice to do so. If individuals aren't really pushing to make it common practice, and aren't willing to be transparent themselves, it won't likely ever really gain traction. Too many people, and companies, would rather wheel and deal to save a buck or deal than deal with the core problems like employee retention and morale.

Dunno, I worked as a project manager/owners rep at an engineering&design firm when I first moved here, the pay scale was fairly transparent and largely based on time spent at the company. It was very frustrating to most new employees to find out there were a bunch of slackers making way more money than us just because they'd been there longer. As a product, retention rate was pretty low for new hires.

 

[ignorethefringes]

Dunno, I worked as a project manager/owners rep at an engineering&design firm when I first moved here, the pay scale was fairly transparent and largely based on time spent at the company. It was very frustrating to most new employees to find out there were a bunch of slackers making way more money than us just because they'd been there longer. As a product, retention rate was pretty low for new hires.

That's pretty similar to JetBlue where my dad works. So much of the pay is simply based on how long you've been with the company that it's pretty easy to figure out what other people are earning. It certainly frustrates him at times because there is so little adjustment for the value of work provided by individual employees.

 

[TOGIE]

Dunno, I worked as a project manager/owners rep at an engineering&design firm when I first moved here, the pay scale was fairly transparent and largely based on time spent at the company. It was very frustrating to most new employees to find out there were a bunch of slackers making way more money than us just because they'd been there longer. As a product, retention rate was pretty low for new hires.

my first post college salaried job was at a consulting engineering firm....

i knew in my offer letter that it was only going to be a stepping stone job. five days of accrued vacation a year as a newbie? the number of days i sat alone in the office around the holidays because everyone had a bunch of vacatio except me... not to mention all of our CLIENTS were off too.

i took the job, worked hard and learned as much as i could, but i was applying for jobs within 6 months.

i honestly haven't come across many consulting engineering firms where the retention is good. for countless reasons.

i can't help but think the old school style and structure of consulting is on the road to extinction in the modern workforce. maybe that's just me.