An informed opinion on getting into sheep/goat draws?

[Khunter]

This and your brother's luck are anecdotal examples of it working out... and you can't draw if you don't apply yada yada yada

But I think the circumstance are completely different now, way more people participate in the draws then they did 30 years ago.

I.E.
If you were to calculate your total draw odds of getting 1 sheep tag, applying in all the states possible for 30 years, starting in say 1980 you might have 20% total odds at a tag in that timeframe.

Start In 1990 10% odds
In 2000 5% odds
In 2020 1% odds

It’s absolutely impossible to know the future, but I absolutely believe that a person playing the drawing game from 1980 to 2020 has an order of magnitude better odds than someone playing 2021 to 2061.

I mean simply the fact that the crazy draw systems with perf and bonus points weren't invented back then so you had a .5% chance with your first dozen apps instead of a .001% chance and once they began you were in on the ground floor.

Social media… online app process… removing the money fronting…

So you say there IS a chance. LOL.

I agree and you are stating the obvious, or what should be obvious. My main point is if putting in for anything in a given state, I add any other species I. ay want to hu t or know I want to hunt option as well, cuz it fits the budget and want to draw them even it gonna take lottery odds

 

[Deleted member 28227]

So you say there IS a chance. LOL.

I agree and you are stating the obvious, or what should be obvious. My main point is if putting in for the non big 3 spiecis, I am usually adding the big 3 and other oddball options (ibex/bison etc) as well, cuz it fits the budget and want to draw them.

Totally, my WAG is that if I put in for the tough critters everywhere possible ( eg VT, NH, ME + western states for moose) that as someone who started in 2012, I will probably draw 1 tag in my life maybe 2. Honestly I’m not even sure that’s realistic

 

[Sandbrew]

One option for a sheep goat or moose hunt might be female tags. The hunt and experience are nearly the same and the odds are significantly better in most cases.

Sandbrew

 

[kimbersig]

I’m a proponent for both. I was applying in pretty much every state for everything for awhile. $3k a year in non refundable fees and such. Decided to book a dall sheep hunt and then drew a rocky tag in my home state the next year(random no points). Since then my “strategy” had changed to reducing my applications to states with desert sheep and other opportunities that I can realistically use for birds or other hunts. Then with that money I’m saving in application fees I just booked a mountain goat hunt. You just gotta come up with a budget and strategy and weigh the cost/odds and come up with your own plan.