2024 Nevada Draw Results

[David Gough]

I wonder how many new entrants realize how bad the odds are. For any of the hunts that I’m interested in, if I apply for the next 20yrs, my highest odds will be antelope with single digit draw odds. If you know that going in, and you’re still applying in the other states that you want to hunt, then by all means knock yourself out. If you can’t decide if you should enter ID, WY, MT, CO, AZ, or NV, well…save NV for last.

I would agree. More residents need to get on board with Nevada being a quality, not opportunity, state. There's a lot of other places and species to hunt every year. Just a said fact of low big game populations.

My draw adds for the pronghorn tag I drew last year were 0.34%, so there's always a chance. I've drawn quite a few tag with single digit draw odds.

 

[MaddH]

I had less than a 1% chance to draw my desert sheep last year with 18 points. But look what happened

 

[popeyoung12]

I had less than a 1% chance to draw my desert sheep last year with 18 points. But look what happened

I had a 4% chance and also drew.

 

[ImBillT]

I had less than a 1% chance to draw my desert sheep last year with 18 points. But look what happened

Exactly. There’s always a chance. But there’s nothing wrong with recognizing that 99 people with the same odds would not have drawn, or said another way, you could easily do that for 99 years and not draw, OR SAID MOST ACCURATELY “if you apply for a 1% odds hunt 100 times there’s a 36.6% chance that you still will not have drawn even once”, and then spending or saving your money with a proper understanding of the situation.

You definitely won’t draw if you don’t apply. You probably won’t draw if you do apply. Good luck everyone.

 

[Elknut50]

I'm in for deer and sheep. 15 points for those. Drew archery Elk in 2021 and muzzleloader antelope in 2022. Nevada is awesome if you can pull a tag!

 

[David Gough]

Exactly. There’s always a chance. But there’s nothing wrong with recognizing that 99 people with the same odds would not have drawn, or said another way, you could easily do that for 99 years and not draw, OR SAID MOST ACCURATELY “if you apply for a 1% odds hunt 100 times there’s a 36.6% chance that you still will not have drawn even once”, and then spending or saving your money with a proper understanding of the situation.

You definitely won’t draw if you don’t apply. You probably won’t draw if you do apply. Good luck everyone.

Somehow I've always drawn a tag. I also put in for everything.

 

[David Gough]

I'm in for deer and sheep. 15 points for those. Drew archery Elk in 2021 and muzzleloader antelope in 2022. Nevada is awesome if you can pull a tag!

Which archery elk tag?

 

[popeyoung12]

So far zer0 for id. Oil tag, n.m. guided, ut.

 

[ImBillT]

Somehow I've always drawn a tag. I also put in for everything.

You’ve been very lucky.

 

[Gr8bawana]

Somehow I've always drawn a tag. I also put in for everything.

It's the power of positive thinking instead of being a debbie downer like some here who are forever bad mouthing NV.

 

[ImBillT]

Somehow I've always drawn a tag. I also put in for everything.

How long was the the streak?

To draw a 1% tag in three consecutive attempts would be 1 in 100,000. I don’t know how many applicants NV has off the top of my head, but there are enough people applying in most states that the idea that someone has done that in NV seems completely plausible. More than one person seems plausible. Throw in a few tags with slightly better odds and it may be a handful of people.

 

[David Gough]

How long was the the streak?

To draw a 1% tag in three consecutive attempts would be 1 in 100,000. I don’t know how many applicants NV has off the top of my head, but there are enough people applying in most states that the idea that someone has done that in NV seems completely plausible. More than one person seems plausible. Throw in a few tags with slightly better odds and it may be a handful of people.

Eleven years I believe. Not sure I'll make it to a dozen, but I did apply for depredation elk tags....

As a bean counter I understand the odds and laugh at them every year.

 

[ImBillT]

Eleven years I believe. Not sure I'll make it to a dozen, but I did apply for depredation elk tags....

As a bean counter I understand the odds and laugh at them every year.

You’re a lucky man I suppose. Although I doubt all 11 tags have been 1% draw odds.

 

[David Gough]

No, but it does include a pronghorn rifle tag at 5%, the pronghorn last year at 0.34%, and in the same year bull elk archery (4%) and late rifle deer (1%).

The point is if you apply for a lot of hunts every year in Nevada and not all premium units your luck will turn for the better at some point

 

[rogerthat]

For every 1 guy that beats the 1% odds there are 99 guys that don’t. It’s not attitude. It’s just math. Congrats to you guys that have beat the odds. Don’t take it for granted.

 

[ImBillT]

No, but it does include a pronghorn rifle tag at 5%, the pronghorn last year at 0.34%, and in the same year bull elk archery (4%) and late rifle deer (1%).

The point is if you apply for a lot of hunts every year in Nevada and not all premium units your luck will turn for the better at some point

The math does not suggest that your second paragraph is accurate for non-residents. Outside of deer and antelope, even the easiest tags to draw in the state are very low odds for non-residents.

2% each for two sheep, a goat, and a bull elk for twenty years give you a 19% chance of never drawing. Unfortunately, even at 20pts, non-residents entering today are not going to get to 2% on anything but the elk. Currently 20pts for desert bighorn gets you to .43%, and that’s not the average over the twenty year span. If you averaged 1%, on those four species, for 20years, there’s a 45% that you never draw. The thing doing all the heavy lifting on that 1% average is the elk. If a non-resident applies for all the male species, he has a decent chance at a deer and/or pronghorn tag. The rest is a bonus if he ever draws it.

 

[MaddH]

I’ve drawn 3 tags that were all less than 1% in great units

 

[MaddH]

I’m starting to think ImBillT is on to something. Probably no NR and residents should apply anymore and save their money for more important stuff like Starbucks coffee, beer, cigarettes or other stuff.

 

[David Gough]

The math does not suggest that your second paragraph is accurate for non-residents. Outside of deer and antelope, even the easiest tags to draw in the state are very low odds for non-residents.

2% each for two sheep, a goat, and a bull elk for twenty years give you a 19% chance of never drawing. Unfortunately, even at 20pts, non-residents entering today are not going to get to 2% on anything but the elk. Currently 20pts for desert bighorn gets you to .43%, and that’s not the average over the twenty year span. If you averaged 1%, on those four species, for 20years, there’s a 45% that you never draw. The thing doing all the heavy lifting on that 1% average is the elk. If a non-resident applies for all the male species, he has a decent chance at a deer and/or pronghorn tag. The rest is a bonus if he ever draws it.

I didn't say it was accurate for non-residents. Nevada residents have the upper-hand obviously, but a non-resident applying for cow elk and HSTE pronghorn would increase their odds.

 

[David Gough]

For every 1 guy that beats the 1% odds there are 99 guys that don’t. It’s not attitude. It’s just math. Congrats to you guys that have beat the odds. Don’t take it for granted.

I agree on the math, but I also catch more fish when I'm having a good time.