2021 Colorado secondary draw odds speculation

[QuazyQuinton]

I know this is stacking speculation on speculation, but for those more familiar with Colorado, how does a guy anticipate the odds of getting a deer tag in the secondary drawing? I understand that it's a bonanza for youth (of which I have three in my house), but I would like to draw an adult tag or two to make the drive more worthwhile. If I focus on tags with 10+ available and requiring less than 3 points in the primary draw, do I have any chance? And do I assume that hunts with O2R and O3R tags will see more demand for the O3R?

QQ

 

[appaloosa]

I'm guessing that there will be exactly a 0% chance that an adult will draw any of the units that have "re-issue" tags available (units that were oversubscribed in the primary draw). Any chance to draw a tag will have to come from a unit with true "leftover" tags (those that were undersubscribed in the primary draw).

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I threw some money in the trash cause who knows, but I agree with @appaloosa. My assumption is with the new child welfare system there is really no reason to apply for a re-issued tag, basically anything with less than 50 tags in the secondary draw, unless you are doing so for your kids.

Your best bet is to hold tight till august.

 

[Wallow]

I'm guessing that there will be exactly a 0% chance that an adult will draw any of the units that have "re-issue" tags available (units that were oversubscribed in the primary draw). Any chance to draw a tag will have to come from a unit with true "leftover" tags (those that were undersubscribed in the primary draw).

Amen to that.

 

[Gellar]

I just can't take it any longer. I wasn't going to hunt Colorado this year in lieu of other options but I have officially thrown my hat in the ring.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I just can't take it any longer. I wasn't going to hunt Colorado this year in lieu of other options but I have officially thrown my hat in the ring.

CPW appreciates your donation, they will be happy to inform you that you applied for tags that you never had a chance at and hope that you will apply for a third time in august.

 

[ccc23454]

I wish they would do youth and then update list and allow you to update app for tags no longer available. Take a week or so but transparent and little more fair for adults asking for tags that are not even avaliable to them.

 

[BrokenChicken]

all depends on the tag. but if you dont apply you'll deff not get any.
last year *(first year for 2ndary draw system)
i applied and pulled Doe tags for Mule and Pronghorn and a cow tag for Elk. all were in the aprx 100 tags left over list, and somehow i drew.

 

[jvanhoy]

I threw some money in the trash cause who knows, but I agree with @appaloosa. My assumption is with the new child welfare system there is really no reason to apply for a re-issued tag, basically anything with less than 50 tags in the secondary draw, unless you are doing so for your kids.

Your best bet is to hold tight till august.

Yep the part that’s killing me is the August list is going to be way lighter because the unpaid tags going this round.

 

[QuazyQuinton]

It seems that the prudent thing for me at this point would be to develop two strategies, one for the kids only, and one that includes the adults. Then I can decide how lucky I feel.

QQ

 

[Gellar]

CPW appreciates your donation, they will be happy to inform you that you applied for tags that you never had a chance at and hope that you will apply for a third time in august.

I’ve spent money on worse things.

 

[QuazyQuinton]

Logical follow up question: If I submit applications for multiple family members with the idea of drawing several tags to make it worth coming as a family and we only draw one or two of the tags, I can return the tags and get a refund, except for app fees, right?

A bit of a way to hedge my bets, but them I'm just adding to the circus....

QQ

 

[Oak]

Yes you can. Following comment not directed at you, but you have given me the opportunity.

Colorado's return policy and payment policy contribute to a large amount of the angst over the whole system, not to mention PP creep. Speculative applying and purchasing with no real consequence needs to change.

 

[TOGIE]

Logical follow up question: If I submit applications for multiple family members with the idea of drawing several tags to make it worth coming as a family and we only draw one or two of the tags, I can return the tags and get a refund, except for app fees, right?

A bit of a way to hedge my bets, but them I'm just adding to the circus....

QQ

cpw to tag holders asking about returns:

*or points*

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Yes you can. Following comment not directed at you, but you have given me the opportunity.

Colorado's return policy and payment policy contribute to a large amount of the angst over the whole system, not to mention PP creep. Speculative applying and purchasing with no real consequence needs to change.

I’d like to nominate Oak as CPW Consigliere.

His job will be to copy paste his comments from hunt talk regarding fixes to the Colorado draw system in emails to the commission… and they will be required to make them.



…and they have to adhere to his sheep plans as well.