DRAFTSTUD
Well-known member
It always falls apart starting in the service industry and gets going again in the Drawing rooms.......John
$1.74 per gallon
- Thread starter OriginalOscar
- Start date
Nemont
Well-known member
Just like every drought ends with a flood, every oil bust ends with a boom.
That's my point exactly. There are tons and tons of factors that affect the price, both short and long term. Supply/demand is only one part of the equation.
When Saudi Arabia announced that they would MAINTAIN production, oil fell something like 10% that day. If one side of the equation is going to stay the same, the other side shouldn't change 10%. Markets are always forward looking though so apparently that announcement out of the Saudi's wasn't expected and thus the drop.
Isn't that the truth. One newsletter writer says "the cure for low prices is low prices". Who knows when this bust will end but it will at some point.
Nemont
Well-known member
A clue that the Saudi's actions were not priced into the market is to go look at the futures contracts. Because oil is a fungible good and futures are used to hedge if one side of the equation changes unexpectedly then a 10% correction is what happens.
Now that oil is dropping nary a word about those dirty evil speculators who were trading oil contracts when the price was rising rapidly, yet they are making a killing on the drop in oil prices as well.
As an example look at what happened with the Swiss Franc 5 days ago, in a 10 minute period, when the Swiss Central Bank announced it was not going to support the 1.20 to the Euro peg any longer. The Franc shot up 30% in just a few minutes vs the Euro and the Swiss Stock market was off 13% for the day. If one side of the equation didn't expect the news delivered dramatic swings take place.
It appears to me that bottom has not been found but who believe oil will remain this low forever. I am buying some oil now through an ETF. I can never pick the bottom but I will keep buying as it goes down. The Saudi's can pump forever but once the market gets the production destruction point it has to swing the other way.
Nemont
OriginalOscar
Active member
Wow lots of chatter but at the end of the day it's great.
Loved the comment about increase in 2014 lifted trucks. 5 new trucks in the neighborhood; 3 Chevy's (good dudes), 1 Ford Powerstroke (adequacy issues), 1 Dodge (nut we avoid). Toyota's not allowed in the neighborhood.
Loved the comment about increase in 2014 lifted trucks. 5 new trucks in the neighborhood; 3 Chevy's (good dudes), 1 Ford Powerstroke (adequacy issues), 1 Dodge (nut we avoid). Toyota's not allowed in the neighborhood.
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Zach
Well-known member
The POTUS just said I'm gonna save $750 at the pump this year thanks to the lower prices.
To bad I'll lose triple that because of the ACA.
To bad I'll lose triple that because of the ACA.
OriginalOscar
Active member
Care to put some numbers to your ACA claim? Haven't seen anyone who can prove the insurance / medical lobby propaganda yet.
Photo of pre 2010 insurance cost and current would be fine.
p.s If you do start a new thread and don't hijack this one with Tea Party nonsense.
Lawnboy
Well-known member
Sorry for posting up a Fox News article as I know many think they are biased but their article mimics exactly what Nemont was explaining earlier.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2015/01/20/real-reason-oil-prices-plunged/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2015/01/20/real-reason-oil-prices-plunged/
Zach
Well-known member
Thanks for the Tea Party nod, pretty insightful from a single post. Must be because I drive a Ford....adequacy issues and all..Oh, and the 2 Toyota's I own(don't' worry, I'm NEVER moving to UT).
I'll get back to you in a year with expenses, but my contribution went up $70 per pay period for the exact same plan.
Oh, and so I don't "hijack" the thread with my nonsense, here's an pertinent article from back in 10-14 on the relevant issue of fuel prices~ http://money.cnn.com/2014/10/10/investing/oil-plunge-below-84-market-concern/index.html?iid=HP_LN
noharleyyet
Well-known member
Since when is criticism about the POTUS and statistically unpopular socialistic policy tea party nonsense?
The only thing less popular than the ACA are the clown car inhabitants at the other end of the mall from the President,
noharleyyet
Well-known member
They're off to a great start.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/21/3613649/senate-targets-national-parks/
noharleyyet
Well-known member
Cool site.
Aren't you confident in the ringmaster's pen?
Aren't you confident in the ringmaster's pen?
You would have prefered something from Alex Jones? 
I am confident that the great and powerful Oz will be the grownup in Washington over the next two years.
I'm also pretty sure that by 2016, 90% of Americans are going to be ready to throw all of D.C. Into the Potomac.
Furthermore, I am supremely confident that we should get back to OP and leave the nastiness of politics behind.
Now buy my rifle.
I am confident that the great and powerful Oz will be the grownup in Washington over the next two years.
I'm also pretty sure that by 2016, 90% of Americans are going to be ready to throw all of D.C. Into the Potomac.
Furthermore, I am supremely confident that we should get back to OP and leave the nastiness of politics behind.
Now buy my rifle.
All this worrying about what MIGHT happen. Just enjoy the low gas prices while they last.
These threads always take a turn for the worst when politics enters the discussion. There are LOTS of political forums out there if that's what you want to talk about.
These threads always take a turn for the worst when politics enters the discussion. There are LOTS of political forums out there if that's what you want to talk about.
noharleyyet
Well-known member
Agreed on the cessation Ben.
I'd buy that rifle but for the threat of further income confiscation. Looks like I'll be using my fuel dividend to enhance the giveaways to the readers of your Jonathan Gruber links.
I'd buy that rifle but for the threat of further income confiscation. Looks like I'll be using my fuel dividend to enhance the giveaways to the readers of your Jonathan Gruber links.
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