SAJ-99
Well-known member
OK, OK. Just because it is slow around here. Yes, probably less than 4, but here is my justification. Below is the table of last year's results for the East General Regular PP draw. You can see that 5pts was 100%, and 75% cleared between 4 and 5. Zero people with 4pts pulled a tag in this part of the draw. The quota was 244. With the increase in tags the quota would jump from 244 to 406 tags. The difference is 162. WY doesn't give us the breakdown of the point levels of the 524 with <=4, so we have to use the total PP holders to estimate. That looks like this.
4pts...110
3pts...124
2pts...128
1pt...162
So with 162 extra tags last year, everyone with 4pts would have cleared and 52 tags remained. That would go to those with <4 pts but it is not enough to totally clear those with 3. So using last year's data with the new number of tags, it will be between 3 and 4. There is no way to know exactly to the decimal where it ends up and no individual has a fraction of a point, so we have think about group points.
Things we don't/can't know
1. The number of applicants applying in groups that average between 3 and 4 pts.
2. the number of people that will move from Reg to Special or Special to Reg. Last year's price increase probably causes some things there to shift.
3. The total number of applicants (which is the cause of point creep)
If we assume some point creep, even if only 0.25, you can get a good guess. I'm sure GoHunt uses something like the past 5years trends to estimate some of the variables, particularly increase in applicants. 95% confidence is just a statistical measurement at 1.96 Std Dev. Heck, I could say the clearing level will be 3.4 + or - 0.4 and feel 95% confident. If your group averages 3.9pts, you can feel more confident than if your group averages 3.1pts.
