Wyoming point creep. How bad will it be for the NR elk draw this year?

[SAJ-99]

Sure seems like it.

Good news is that 1pter's dropped from 2022 to 2023, so maybe there is something to it?

 

[Nick87]

Good news is that 1pter's dropped from 2022 to 2023, so maybe there is something to it?

Yah, I just meant in general whether it's wyoming tags, a whitetail hunting spot in the Midwest etc. The competition is incredible. I mean there's guys who lease out 80 acres around here which is all tillable with a Wooded creek line running through it. First group does it realizes what a waste of money and there's a waiting list of people to pay more the next year. It's interesting to say the least.

 

[ccc23454]

Agreed! I will add I personally know a guy burning 6 in the regular for a general this year. Point creep just seems to grow every year with no signs of slowing so I tend to be a bit of a pecimiss when calculating odds.


I met a guy on a Texas controlled hunt this year who had 12 Wyoming elk points and zero plans on burning them. I began discussing the changes possibly coming and he became very dejected and acted like he would just quit and let the points go. Crazy to build that many points with no plan I know guys do it but I can't understand it. I think we'll see more of this but if tag numbers shrink odds won't be any better.

This is crazy to me and a trend i notice that i cant believe but next time you meet a guy with decent amout of points ask him: how many points does it take to draw the unit your after? Almost everyone i talk to with decent amounts of points have no plan or unit in mind let alone follow point creep data or propossed changes to systems. I think its ridiculous to spend all that money and time invested in a states system with no real plan let alone not even trying to hit randoms. Because of this lack of buy-in i think a lot of these point holders on sidelines will just quit, die or burn points in generals as they begin to realize they have no plan. The generals are easiest and less stressful to develop a plan and information for without hiring a guide so they just do that.

 

[SAJ-99]

Yah, I just meant in general whether it's wyoming tags, a whitetail hunting spot in the Midwest etc. The competition is incredible. I mean there's guys who lease out 80 acres around here which is all tilavle with. Wooded Vreeland running through it. First group does it realizes what a waste of money and there's a waiting list of people to pay more the next year. It's interesting to say the least.

yeah, certainly the case. There were still over 42,000 people who bought that first point. More than 5.5x the 7250 tag limit WY has set. The numbers are hard to even comprehend in some cases.

 

[Nick87]

This is crazy to me and a trend i notice that i cant believe but next time you meet a guy with decent amout of points ask him: how many points does it take to draw the unit your after? Almost everyone i talk to with decent amounts of points have no plan or unit in mind let alone follow point creep data or propossed changes to systems. I think its ridiculous to spend all that money and time invested in a states system with no real plan let alone not even trying to hit randoms. Because of this lack of buy-in i think a lot of these point holders on sidelines will just quit, die or burn points in generals as they begin to realize they have no plan. The generals are easiest and less stressful to develop a plan and information for without hiring a guide so they just do that.

I'm not in the I don't have a plan group but more I don't always have the time. Maybe more guys fall into this one. I have a few units that I'd like to save for points for but also when a year comes up that I have the time and money to go I re evaluate what I can get with my points at that time.

 

[SAJ-99]

This is crazy to me and a trend i notice that i cant believe but next time you meet a guy with decent amout of points ask him: how many points does it take to draw the unit your after? Almost everyone i talk to with decent amounts of points have no plan or unit in mind let alone follow point creep data or propossed changes to systems. I think its ridiculous to spend all that money and time invested in a states system with no real plan let alone not even trying to hit randoms. Because of this lack of buy-in i think a lot of these point holders on sidelines will just quit, die or burn points in generals as they begin to realize they have no plan. The generals are easiest and less stressful to develop a plan and information for without hiring a guide so they just do that.

Sort of wonder how many people are buying points for their kids. Also wonder how many times the kid says "I'd rather just play Buckmaster on the TV at home".

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Yah, I just meant in general whether it's wyoming tags, a whitetail hunting spot in the Midwest etc. The competition is incredible. I mean there's guys who lease out 80 acres around here which is all tillable with a Wooded creek line running through it. First group does it realizes what a waste of money and there's a waiting list of people to pay more the next year. It's interesting to say the least.

I bet if you limited some of the terrible CO units at the current level of people hunting them at OTC within a couple of years you’d see 2x as many people applying for points for that unit.

 

[idahohuntr]

This is crazy to me and a trend i notice that i cant believe but next time you meet a guy with decent amout of points ask him: how many points does it take to draw the unit your after? Almost everyone i talk to with decent amounts of points have no plan or unit in mind let alone follow point creep data or propossed changes to systems. I think its ridiculous to spend all that money and time invested in a states system with no real plan let alone not even trying to hit randoms. Because of this lack of buy-in i think a lot of these point holders on sidelines will just quit, die or burn points in generals as they begin to realize they have no plan. The generals are easiest and less stressful to develop a plan and information for without hiring a guide so they just do that.

I don't look at points accumulation that way...in some cases I do have a specific goal/unit, but I also recognize so much can change over time (units, seasons, rules, tags, point systems) that I think you always have to have flexibility. I look at points a bit more like retirement savings...yes, a specific plan/goal can help...but with uncertainty in the future having more is better than having less. Same with points...to a degree. So if its a state/species I have interest in, and I believe its clear points can help me...based on cost...I generally will acquire points even if I don't have a specific plan.

In WY it will definitely be interesting to see what happens...all these "i'm burning my points this year" claims have the feeling of fitting a watermelon down a garden hose...there are still only a small number of preference tags available...

 

[Southern Elk]

In Colorado, I have always had a specific unit in mind. In Wyoming, I didn’t, but when I made the decision to burn my points I did my research. For me it’s more about timing and finally being able to do something with my points.

 

[RobertD]

Yah, I just meant in general whether it's wyoming tags, a whitetail hunting spot in the Midwest etc. The competition is incredible. I mean there's guys who lease out 80 acres around here which is all tillable with a Wooded creek line running through it. First group does it realizes what a waste of money and there's a waiting list of people to pay more the next year. It's interesting to say the least.

Man I see the exact same thing happen in my neck of the woods. I used to work in a restaurant and get to know a lot of the Florida crowd that would come up and hunt leased land. Certain properties literally would have a different group on it every year. They'd say oh we're on the old so and so place and I'd just shake my head. But there would be another group the next year.

 

[RobertD]

i feel safe at 6 points in general. gosh, i hope.

i'm more worried about how to handle my 4 antelope points. i've been hemming and hawing like crazy.

i delete and change that cell in my app planning spreadsheet almost daily. 4 is a terrible amount of antelope points. just terrible.

We've talked about it some before but damn if it ain't the truth. I'm fully expecting to not get drawn for antelope this year. I just refuse to fold and try for something I know is of shit quality so will probably wind up getting blown out of the water by point creep

 

[BlakeA]

I think its ridiculous to spend all that money and time invested in a states system with no real plan let alone not even trying to hit randoms.

Agreed. My philosophy has always been to apply no matter what even if I had plans for other hunts or other things but my selections were always hunts that I would change my original plans in a heartbeat if I hit in the random. I've eaten alot of tags simply due to drawing better tags randomly by at least putting my name in the hat. Only so much time to hunt but I will gladly swap out low point/general type hunts for a quality hunt I snagged in the random. I can't imagine having 16 points and having never actually applied...16 years of no chance even at a random great tag..I personally wouldn't be able to sleep at night but I'm also a little over the top on this stuff

 

[TOGIE]

We've talked about it some before but damn if it ain't the truth. I'm fully expecting to not get drawn for antelope this year. I just refuse to fold and try for something I know is of shit quality so will probably wind up getting blown out of the water by point creep

man i got hosed by a like 1.5 point 1 year creep in the special draw on a particular pronghorn unit a couple years ago and ever since that i've been flailing. suddenly had more points than i intended and looking to burn them and having no idea what to do.

now i'm stuck in a position of most the units i should handily draw and would be happy to are all overlapping dates with the antlered and any elk general dates. i don't want to take any time away from that general elk hunt and i also don't want to deal with that scheduling chaos with the more difficult life of hunting with a 1 year old at home.

i've honed in a unit where unless the special draw jumps a full two points i would be good, but special isn't in the budget this year.

I've also honed in on what was a regular draw guaranteed 3 point unit that also had decent odds at 2 points. i'll just have to take the risk of essentially a 1.5+ point creep blowing me out again.

 

[cgasner1]

So how many of you guys that think just buying points is crazy put money into your 401k? I know I wanna retire some day just don’t know when or how much I’ll need but I have to put it away. Just like I know some day I wanna hunt Wyoming so I have to buy the points. It may be awhile till I use them because the unit I wanted may be going general. I’m kinda on the opposite end of this where I think the general will see a huge jump but in a couple of years I’ll be able to get a better tag because of the people going into general. I bet the surprise will be people dumping mass points to party hunt with a outfitter on general

 

[ashersdad]

I don't think buying points is crazy. I do find it interesting when some of my buddies used their 12 points last year on a limited unit and shot small raghorn bulls the first few days of the hunt. Not judging them at all because I've shot alot of raghorns myself. Just find it interesting that they could have hunted the General units several times over that same period. To each their own.

 

[SAJ-99]

So how many of you guys that think just buying points is crazy put money into your 401k? I know I wanna retire some day just don’t know when or how much I’ll need but I have to put it away. Just like I know some day I wanna hunt Wyoming so I have to buy the points. It may be awhile till I use them because the unit I wanted may be going general. I’m kinda on the opposite end of this where I think the general will see a huge jump but in a couple of years I’ll be able to get a better tag because of the people going into general. I bet the surprise will be people dumping mass points to party hunt with a outfitter on general

I think there are a lot of people thinking this way. Just keep in mind that there are 23,000 people with 8pts or more, and many keep buying. People just don't seem logical at times. 2 people with 15pts and 1 with 14 jumped to the reg General last year. I can't even guess what they were thinking, but they are rare enough that they don't change the odds for the General much. It is changed by those at 4-7pt range that had a plan and are watching it get smashed by point creep. For those that use outfitters in highly sought after areas, they need to book 18-24mo in advance. I would bet the vast majority of us will be dead before odds start getting better.

 

[NativeIndian]

I don't worry about it. I just loan WY my money for a couple of months every year while I look for a decent place to build on there. Then I'll just hunt the general units every year after I establish my residency.

 

[RobertD]

man i got hosed by a like 1.5 point 1 year creep in the special draw on a particular pronghorn unit a couple years ago and ever since that i've been flailing. suddenly had more points than i intended and looking to burn them and having no idea what to do.

now i'm stuck in a position of most the units i should handily draw and would be happy to are all overlapping dates with the antlered and any elk general dates. i don't want to take any time away from that general elk hunt and i also don't want to deal with that scheduling chaos with the more difficult life of hunting with a 1 year old at home.

i've honed in a unit where unless the special draw jumps a full two points i would be good, but special isn't in the budget this year.

I've also honed in on what was a regular draw guaranteed 3 point unit that also had decent odds at 2 points. i'll just have to take the risk of essentially a 1.5+ point creep blowing me out again.

You are doing better than me by at least finding units you're happy with, I see hunts especially in the special that I can draw but can't convince myself they are "worth" burning 4 pts on... I think I'm probably talking myself out of good hunts but it seems like everything I want will take +/- .5 points more than I will have when the rubber meets the road

 

[cgasner1]

I think there are a lot of people thinking this way. Just keep in mind that there are 23,000 people with 8pts or more, and many keep buying. People just don't seem logical at times. 2 people with 15pts and 1 with 14 jumped to the reg General last year. I can't even guess what they were thinking, but they are rare enough that they don't change the odds for the General much. It is changed by those at 4-7pt range that had a plan and are watching it get smashed by point creep. For those that use outfitters in highly sought after areas, they need to book 18-24mo in advance. I would bet the vast majority of us will be dead before odds start getting better.

Some people would probably be pretty easy to throw 15 at the general when they partied up with their kids when they turned old enough to hunt and got to take them on a elk hunt

 

[SAJ-99]

Some people would probably be pretty easy to throw 15 at the general when they partied up with their kids when they turned old enough to hunt and got to take them on a elk hunt

I guess. Did the guy have triplets?