WY Price Hike Implications

[Bigjay73]

I plan on applying in the special for pronghorn hoping the price hike will scare some off and tags will be easier to draw. I expect a lot of people plan on doing the same as me and odds won't get any better.

May have a lot of people this year who sit out the draw just to see what happens. I think my plan is to pick a unit that took 2 more points than what we have accrued this year and see what happens. My son has 7 points, ill put him in for a 9 point unit. If we draw, we get a great unit, if not we get a point.

 

[dan.kirkpatrick]

i would suspect that the "special" price draw odds will improve a fair ammount {maybe a couple points less}for those willing to pay the price..i forsee a big jump in pointcreep on the "regular" tags though problably jumping up a few points or more,,posibly 4 or so} to draw the same tag ,,thats my prediction.

 

[SAJ-99]

You are asking the question in November and we are on page 2, so that says something about interest. My guess, point creep will slow for the special and jump for the regular. How much? No clue but I doubt it will be more than 1pt. It will take a while for people to get used to the prices and point creep will equalize to recent trend, but... also remember, as I understand it the elk regions were approved and the number of NR licenses will increase. All of this will throw another wrench in the application process because every trend model is now useless.

 

[Mallardsx2]

I foresee more people pushing their families further into debt to buy overprices elk tags and create content for YouTube that nobody really cares about.

 

[HighDesertSage]

Does the $2000 special elk tag come with the Vaseline?

Wait until one of these state fish and game agencies figure out how to start selling tags at market value

 

[HighDesertSage]

Application strategy articles are starting to come out. While I’m very unluck, I like to contribute to conservation and love buying a few months of hope to keep my mind occupied.

What will the steep price increase do to tag demand in WY? The obvious impact is a large shift in applications from special to regular, significantly hurting random odds and to a lesser extent continuing to drive point creep for elk. I think low point holders were a good amount of the ones “buying better odd.” I think demand for most special elk tags will still exist but some will be unsold and fall back into the regular draw. Elk draw results will likely see a more modest impact based on high budgetless demand, as compared to deer and pronghorn. I think that success only drives us closer to privatization of wildlife or at least profiteering. I wonder how much higher NR tag numbers will offset the impact, especially for the general tag. WY will increase general NR tags and several units have added/split hunts to increase tags (added type 9 or type 2). Adding the type 9 tags lowers the value of a quality type 1 tag, IMO.

However, I can’t see a ton of deer and pronghorn tags going for such a premium price. Maybe the top hunts warrant that price, but will demand for non-glory quality hunts exceed supply in the special draw? It will be interesting to see where draw odds shake out after a couple of years. I think the results in year one may be counterintuitive, similar to what seemed like increased demand for NM muzzleloader tags after increased restrictions. I think point creep for deer and pronghorn over the next few years will be significant; especially when combining the change with continuation of tag cuts from this past winter.

The application strategy game is part of the fun. What is your hypothesis? How material will the impact on draw odds be for DEA? Will the rich now be able to buy annual quality hunts or will the odds in the special simply be 2-4X better? Can’t wait for Randy’s application strategy video.

My prediction, zero impact.

 

[buckbull]

Wait until one of these state fish and game agencies figure out how to start selling tags at market value

Agreed that $2000 is no where close to the point that tags would be left over after the draw. My guess they could sell every single LE elk tag at $5000. Guys willing to spend $100k on a truck would not blink an eye.

 

[rmyoung1]

My prediction: Type 4 cow tags in the special will be there for taking.

 

[seeth07]

Agreed that $2000 is no where close to the point that tags would be left over after the draw. My guess they could sell every single LE elk tag at $5000. Guys willing to spend $100k on a truck would not blink an eye.

I think you are short. If they took every tag right now that currently takes at least 10 points for a NR to have a 100% chance at drawing in either special or regular and created a draw where all of these tags were priced at $20,000 and held the draw, I bet there are very few if any leftovers.

 

[buckbull]

I think you are short. If they took every tag right now that currently takes at least 10 points for a NR to have a 100% chance at drawing in either special or regular and created a draw where all of these tags were priced at $20,000 and held the draw, I bet there are very few if any leftovers.

Wouldn't surprise me.

 

[WapitiBob]

How many NM LO vouchers are leftover?
yea, none

 

[Bigjay73]

Is the notion of going 90/10 for all species dead, or is Wyoming still having that conversation?

 

[ClearCreek]

Wait until one of these state fish and game agencies figure out how to start selling tags at market value

I know a couple state agencies discussed this 10 years ago. Montana may have dabbled in this concept, but I can't remember what their outcome was.

ClearCreek

 

[Flatrock]

My prediction, zero impact.

I agree. I think anyone hoping for improved odds in the special will be mostly disappointed. Wouldn't surprise me if the odds at the high end actually get worse. Low end maybe a little better. Overall mostly a wash.

 

[Red Fox]

I think that all the western states are watching this as well. If they sell out, I can see every other state raising the prices very shortly after. The cost of hunting out of state or out west is going to keep going up.

 

[HighDesertSage]

Is the notion of going 90/10 for all species dead, or is Wyoming still having that conversation?

I am curious were this landed as well? @BuzzH

 

[Mallardsx2]

 

[WapitiBob]

2024 is the wrong year for 90/10 to get thru the Legislature.

 

[Jape]

There is either enough money to pay the special tag price, enough desperation for people to apply for the special, and/or enough FOMO that I don’t foresee ANY difference in draw odds this coming year. Tag prices have risen 100% plus in every single state over the past 10 years with demand only increasing and tags becoming harder to draw. Why would this be any different?

 

[ShootsManyBullets]

I'm starting to lose interest with some of the price hikes. Probably still hunt WY but not nearly as often. My friends are all saying something similar.